White Sox looking for a LH OFer

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, so our system is now considered pretty good and pretty deep.    Our 6-12 (per Tony):  Hall, Baumann, Westburg, Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Diaz.   If we didn’t have them already, would you trade Santander for two of those?   (Note: I think most other rankings have Hall in the top 5.)

I would trade him for Hall straight up and wouldn’t even think about it.

And yes, I could see dealing him for 2 of those other players.  I’m a lot higher on Diaz than Tony, so Diaz and one of Kremer/Baumann would do it..maybe Westburg, just depends on what you think of him.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

I’m not sure what we’re arguing about. If the return is good, then of course we trade him. If the return is not good, then of course we don’t. I think at most, you and I are disagreeing on what would constitute a good return. And we can’t even discuss that until a trade is made. I would Much rather find a taker for Stewart, because it would be difficult to replace our best outfielder if he is traded.

1) Stewart has no value

2). The team isn’t trying to win. Who cares if it’s difficult to replace Santander in 2021? (Btw, I disagree that it’s difficult to replace him but it’s not easy either)

[Roll Tide]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, so our system is now considered pretty good and pretty deep.    Our 6-12 (per Tony):  Hall, Baumann, Westburg, Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Diaz.   If we didn’t have them already, would you trade Santander for two of those?   (Note: I think most other rankings have Hall in the top 5.)

I proposed 6, 16 and 18 .... If the other way ... Henderson/Diaz, and maybe Wells and McKenna???

[HowAboutThat]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His value isn’t maximized when he only has one year left of service time.

That’s why I said arb 2, I think.July of Second arbitration season: the new team gets the rest of his Arb 2 season, his arb 3 season and all that time to work out an extension of you want. 
if you trade him sooner you’re trading away underpriced production.  
 

of course other factors always weigh in, but that’s the rule of thumb, and I wish the Powers had thought of that when dealing Manny. 

[HowAboutThat]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His value isn’t maximized when he only has one year left of service time.

I went back and read my comment again, and I did incorrectly state the timing. I suggested after Arbitration 2, and I meant during Arbitration 2. Maybe after Arb 1,But that depends upon the player.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s why I said arb 2, I think.July of Second arbitration season: the new team gets the rest of his Arb 2 season, his arb 3 season and all that time to work out an extension of you want. 
if you trade him sooner you’re trading away underpriced production.  

Just to clarify one thing, Santander is a Super-2 who is under control for four years.   He won’t be a free agent after Arb 3.    

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Just to clarify one thing, Santander is a Super-2 who is under control for four years.   He won’t be a free agent after Arb 3.    

He probably will. 

[hoosiers]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I went back and read my comment again, and I did incorrectly state the timing. I suggested after Arbitration 2, and I meant during Arbitration 2. Maybe after Arb 1,But that depends upon the player.

Phiip, let's take a step back.  Think of a player's production from Year 1, 2 and 3 pre-arb, and his productions during years 4-6 in arbitration.  Think of the costs in all of those years.  Now line those two up.

A player's "max" value (or excess value of projected production to the FA year versus the cost over that time) to his team or a team that might trade for him is when the production is the highest and the cost is the cheapest on the Year 1-6 spectrum.  One year may have more valuable production, but assuming production levels off near 2 WAR, the total value of that player to a franchise thru the arb years is simply when the costs are lower - which is earlier in the player's arb status.  

If I am not explaining it very well, I apologize.  A player's arb 2 year is not his max value to free agency - not close.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I went back and read my comment again, and I did incorrectly state the timing. I suggested after Arbitration 2, and I meant during Arbitration 2. Maybe after Arb 1,But that depends upon the player.

His value isn’t maximized then either.

As I said, position players, generally speaking, are worth more in the offseason.  On top of that, his value is higher with more service time.  So, perhaps after 2021, if he has been good, that’s when his value would be its highest. However, that’s a gamble as well.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His value isn’t maximized then either.

As I said, position players, generally speaking, are worth more in the offseason.  On top of that, his value is higher with more service time.  So, perhaps after 2021, if he has been good, that’s when his value would be its highest. However, that’s a gamble as well.

Do you think that's the case to a small or mid-market team that is trying to contend now? It seems to be that if my scouts determined that Santander has arrived that I would find the extra year of control more valuable. If he goes out next season and kills it ...His value is likely worth more to the teams that dont care about his escalating salary or signing him to a big contract.

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Do you think that's the case to a small or mid-market team that is trying to contend now? It seems to be that if my scouts determined that Santander has arrived that I would find the extra year of control more valuable. If he goes out next season and kills it ...His value is likely worth more to the teams that dont care about his escalating salary or signing him to a big contract.

No, if he has a really good 2021 and stays healthy, his value is easily higher after next year.  Even if some of the smaller market teams would deem him to expensive, the other teams would offer more and drive up his price in total.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Phiip, let's take a step back.  Think of a player's production from Year 1, 2 and 3 pre-arb, and his productions during years 4-6 in arbitration.  Think of the costs in all of those years.  Now line those two up.

A player's "max" value (or excess value of projected production to the FA year versus the cost over that time) to his team or a team that might trade for him is when the production is the highest and the cost is the cheapest on the Year 1-6 spectrum.  One year may have more valuable production, but assuming production levels off near 2 WAR, the total value of that player to a franchise thru the arb years is simply when the costs are lower - which is earlier in the player's arb status.  

If I am not explaining it very well, I apologize.  A player's arb 2 year is not his max value to free agency - not close.  

I think I understand what you’re saying. Basically what you’re saying is that, perhaps in most cases, but certainly in Santander’s case, his max value will be sooner than I am claiming.

I was suggesting that mid-year 5 in the cycle(Arb 2) would be when his value would be peak. If it’s actually a bit sooner, that’s fine.

[Sports Guy]

The thing is, do you hold onto Santander to get Max value?  Is he good enough to risk that?

My answer to that is no.  I’m guessing that you could get a deal now that would justify trading Santander.  It’s not a better deal than you would get after 2021 if he has a good, healthy year but it would be a deal that be worth doing and not gamble that injuries/inconsistent play hurts his value.

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I think I understand what you’re saying. Basically what you’re saying is that, perhaps in most cases, but certainly in Santander’s case, his max value will be sooner than I am claiming.

I was suggesting that mid-year 5 in the cycle(Arb 2) would be when his value would be peak. If it’s actually a bit sooner, that’s fine.

You may be trying to find a particular point in time where a prospect's production may be highest and it is easiest to part with that player relative to free agency.

A player's cumulative production value relative to cost prior to free agency is much before then.  If the Os deal Santander now, the team trading for Santander can expect four years of product at increasing arb costs.  By years five and six (arb years 2 and 3), Santander's salary will be highest and closer to his actual production - there is less value in that.  The earlier years where Santander produces 2 WAR and costs very little are when Santander's trade value is highest.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

You may be trying to find a particular point in time where a prospect's production may be highest and it is easiest to part with that player relative to free agency.

A player's cumulative production value relative to cost prior to free agency is much before then.  If the Os deal Santander now, the team trading for Santander can expect four years of product at increasing arb costs.  By years five and six (arb years 2 and 3), Santander's salary will be highest and closer to his actual production - there is less value in that.  The earlier years where Santander produces 2 WAR and costs very little are when Santander's trade value is highest.

It depends on how the player is perceived vs. how he performs.    I can think of lots of players who had more trade value later compared to earlier because they proved themselves as excellent players, whereas earlier in their career their potential was unrealized.