What if Lowther is ready?

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When you say “common,” what do you mean?    I recently did a thread about 21 players who debuted in 2013 to see if their service time had been manipulated.   All of those were decent or better players who have accrued at least 5 rWAR in their career.    Of the 21, six jumped from AA to the majors, 15 did not.    I don’t know, but I’m guessing that’s a pretty typical ratio among good prospects.    Of course, some guys debut from AA, get sent down after a time and then go to AAA later.   And on the other hand, a good number have a very brief AAA stay before graduating to the majors.   

I'd say almost a third counts as common.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd say almost a third counts as common.

Meets my definition too, but some people interpret “common” as “more often than not.”   So I wanted to avoid any confusion about that.    

[orioles22]

I've heard that word used my entire life - when someone is brought up too quickly and they aren't ready. I think we should use our four minor league teams.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

There is no such thing as rushing a prospect unless it’s some ridiculous circumstance that basically would never happen.

Otherwise, “rushing” is a myth.

Really?   So you think when Akin spend 2019 in AAA and was told to concentrate on his offspeed pitches even though his results (ERA) suffered a bit, so he could learn to command those pitches better, that that could have been accomplished at the major league level?   I know we weren't "trying to win", but Brandon Hyde was managing to win every game.     I say he wouldn't have been able to concentrate on the offspeed improvements enough if he was at the major league level.   Knowing that people were discussing his results every day on talk shows, that he was accumulating statistics that would in a few years affect what he could get in arbitration, etc.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I've heard that word used my entire life - when someone is brought up too quickly and they aren't ready. I think we should use our four minor league teams.

And how often do they prove to not be ready after further "seasoning"? 

Things can be learnt at the major league level.  Development is possible.  Machado and Schoop are fine examples of guys that were "rushed" and turned out just fine.

I think it is pretty difficult to promote someone so aggressively that you actually damage their future prospects.  In fact I would say that one of the biggest positives a player can have is early promotion to the majors.

Does it matter if player X struggles in the majors this season if it makes him stronger in the long run?  Nope.  Not competing this year anyway.

[Ruzious]

And ya gotta look at the age of these guys.  If they're 25 and still in the minors, don't ya think that's somewhat demoralizing to a kid who sees people younger than him who he thinks he's better than - already succeeding in the majors.  For the 1st time, he's 2nd guessing himself.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Really?   So you think when Akin spend 2019 in AAA and was told to concentrate on his offspeed pitches even though his results (ERA) suffered a bit, so he could learn to command those pitches better, that that could have been accomplished at the major league level?   I know we weren't "trying to win", but Brandon Hyde was managing to win every game.     I say he wouldn't have been able to concentrate on the offspeed improvements enough if he was at the major league level.   Knowing that people were discussing his results every day on talk shows, that he was accumulating statistics that would in a few years affect what he could get in arbitration, etc.

Hyde works for Elias so yea, he could have worked on it in the majors.

I haven't seen his usage numbers from 2019 and compared them to what he did previously.  Did he throw more offspeed pitches?  In different counts?  Was his usage noticeably different?

Or was it just spin?

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

And how often do they prove to not be ready after further "seasoning"? 

Things can be learnt at the major league level.  Development is possible.  Machado and Schoop are fine examples of guys that were "rushed" and turned out just fine.

I think it is pretty difficult to promote someone so aggressively that you actually damage their future prospects.  In fact I would say that one of the biggest positives a player can have is early promotion to the majors.

Does it matter if player X struggles in the majors this season if it makes him stronger in the long run?  Nope.  Not competing this year anyway.

Yeah, I thought that should be one of the benefits of being a lousy team - Ya can give a kid a shot - so he gets valuable MLB experience.  

[Frobby]

On the topic of rushing players, I think there may be a difference between position players and pitchers.    I think it’s easier to mess up the development of a pitcher by moving him too fast than it is for a position player.   Of course, every case has to be looked at individually.   Clayton Kershaw doesn’t seem to have suffered from skipping AAA.

[orioles22]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And how often do they prove to not be ready after further "seasoning"? 

Things can be learnt at the major league level.  Development is possible.  Machado and Schoop are fine examples of guys that were "rushed" and turned out just fine.

I think it is pretty difficult to promote someone so aggressively that you actually damage their future prospects.  In fact I would say that one of the biggest positives a player can have is early promotion to the majors.

Does it matter if player X struggles in the majors this season if it makes him stronger in the long run?  Nope.  Not competing this year anyway.

I think Machado qualifies in the "elite' level prospect I mentioned earlier in the discussion. I'm sure he would have been fine with any approach.

Some turn out fine. Some don't. Some would have never made it no matter the approach.

I don't see anything wrong with letting most of the players spend some time in AAA if we are going to have an AAA team.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I think Machado qualifies in the "elite' level prospect I mentioned earlier in the discussion. I'm sure he would have been fine with any approach.

Some turn out fine. Some don't. Some would have never made it no matter the approach.

I don't see anything wrong with letting most of the players spend some time in AAA if we are going to have an AAA team.

 

I think challenging players leads to faster improvement.  Look at how hyped folks are about Gunnar.  You think that would be the case if they hadn't thrown him in with more advanced players last year?

I think you can learn things in the majors that you can't learn in the minors.

Overcoming adversity builds strength.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

On the topic of rushing players, I think there may be a difference between position players and pitchers.    I think it’s easier to mess up the development of a pitcher by moving him too fast than it is for a position player.   Of course, every case has to be looked at individually.   Clayton Kershaw doesn’t seem to have suffered from skipping AAA.

Jose Fernandez skipped AA and AAA.  He did OK.

 

[orioles22]

I think Lowther will find a few challenges in AAA. If not, he'll be up soon enough.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, orioles22 said:

I think Lowther will find a few challenges in AAA. If not, he'll be up soon enough.

Most of it is about maximizing the value to the team.  Which is fine I guess but it isn't about development and it certainly isn't about what is best for the player.

[orioles22]

I hope Hyde knows what is the best for the player. I think it will be at least a few starts at Norfolk. I've been wrong before though.