Szymborski: John Means could be a no. 2 starter

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1- Would cost control his arbitration years

2- Could make him a more attractive trade piece.

Ideally you would make any potential free agent years options.  Offer him 4 years at X with team options on years Y and Y+1.

If you do think he's a #2 going forward then it's probably a smart decision to make even if you don't want him past six years.

1) not overly concerned about that at this point.  He has to show that he can put together another good season for me to have faith that I want him locked up for several years.

2) I don’t really agree with this.  If the Os trade him, teams will have him under control for a while regardless.

 

He’s about to turn 28 and isn’t a free agent until 2025, so we have him through his age 31 season.  
 

Im not that interested in signing him for his age 32 and 33 seasons or however many years you would want to eat up.

If he was a few years younger, I would be interested.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) not overly concerned about that at this point.  He has to show that he can put together another good season for me to have faith that I want him locked up for several years.

2) I don’t really agree with this.  If the Os trade him, teams will have him under control for a while regardless.

 

He’s about to turn 28 and isn’t a free agent until 2025, so we have him through his age 31 season.  
 

Im not that interested in signing him for his age 32 and 33 seasons or however many years you would want to eat up.

If he was a few years younger, I would be interested.

1- Yea, if you don't have the guts to take the risk and extend him early then you either flip him or non-tender him.  If you wait until he "proves" himself you end up paying full retail anyway.  Most of the risk and none of the reward.

2- You have been watching the Rays right?  You have seen what they are getting back for their already signed pitchers?  If you can lock a pitcher into a below market deal it absolutely increases their trade value. 

 

Of course that is predicated on your experts agreeing with Szymborski.

 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1- Yea, if you don't have the guts to take the risk and extend him early then you either flip him or non-tender him.  If you wait until he "proves" himself you end up paying full retail anyway.  Most of the risk and none of the reward.

2- You have been watching the Rays right?  You have seen what they are getting back for their already signed pitchers?  If you can lock a pitcher into a below market deal it absolutely increases their trade value. 

 

Of course that is predicated on your experts agreeing with Szymborski.

 

1) Can’t disagree more.  You can go year to year on deals and be fine.  There is nothing wrong with that and it’s pretty common.  I would rather pay more later than be stuck with a regrettable contract.

2) I am blanking on who the Rays have traded in these circumstances outside of Snell and Means isn’t on his level right now.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1) Can’t disagree more.  You can go year to year on deals and be fine.  There is nothing wrong with that and it’s pretty common.

2) I am blanking on who the Rays have traded in these circumstances outside of Snell and Means isn’t on his level right now.

1- If he's actually a #2 it won't be long until he's out of the O's price range.

2A- Archer signed a 6 year $25.5 million extension with Tampa Bay and they flipped him for Meadows, Glasnow and Baz.

2B- Shields signed a 4 year $11.25 million extension (3 option years)  with Tampa Bay and they flipped him for Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery, and Leonard.

[IPlayGM]

It willing be telling to see how Elias handles these situations as the team becomes competitive again. While you can argue the merit of doing this type of deal with Means specifically, the idea of doing business this way would give me much more confidence in our franchise moving forward.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, IPlayGM said:

It willing be telling to see how Elias handles these situations as the team becomes competitive again. While you can argue the merit of doing this type of deal with Means specifically, the idea of doing business this way would give me much more confidence in our franchise moving forward.

I don't think you can afford to play it safe and go year by year if you are the O's.  I think they will need to identify good candidates for early extensions and pull the trigger and assume the risk.

Now is Means one of those guys?  I don't know.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1- If he's actually a #2 it won't be long until he's out of the O's price range.

2A- Archer signed a 6 year $25.5 million extension with Tampa Bay and they flipped him for Meadows, Glasnow and Baz.

2B- Shields signed a 4 year $11.25 million extension (3 option years)  with Tampa Bay and they flipped him for Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery, and Leonard.

Ok..I was thinking more recent, thus why I wasn’t considering someone like Shields.  That being said, they traded those guys at times when they had a lot of service time regardless and would have still gotten a haul for them either way.  

Now, having archer so cheap certainly helped but that contract was signed several years ago.  You aren’t getting Means that cheap just out of the natural progression of contracts.  

And when they signed Archer, he was entering his 25 year old season.  This isnt remotely comparable.  Archer’s deal ran out when he turned 30.  This type of deal would run out when Means is well into his 30s.  I don’t think that is very helpful at all.

I also don’t think it matters in terms of an increasing salary.  The team will be in position to easily handle those deals and quite frankly, if you are doing what you should development wise, you shouldn’t be in position to where you have to pay him big dollars anyway.  You should be able to trade him for a good haul and then replace him from within.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok..I was thinking more recent, thus why I wasn’t considering someone like Shields.  That being said, they traded those guys at times when they had a lot of service time regardless and would have still gotten a haul for them either way.  

Now, having archer so cheap certainly helped but that contract was signed several years ago.  You aren’t getting Means that cheap just out of the natural progression of contracts.  

And when they signed Archer, he was entering his 25 year old season.  This isnt remotely comparable.  Archer’s deal ran out when he turned 30.  This type of deal would run out when Means is well into his 30s.  I don’t think that is very helpful at all.

 

Exactly how many super recent examples were you expecting?  Not even the Rays pull of a deal like that on a yearly basis.  I think the Shields deal is very comparable.  I'm also unsure of why you are dismissive of Archer.  I've not seen much evidence that the age of a highly regarded (#1-2) guy impacts their value to anywhere near the extent it does position players.  Means is a pretty low mileage arm.  If you can trade him with 2-3 years of undermarket contract attached you will get a sold return.

 

[Frobby]

Like most things, it depends on price.   I’m sure there’s some long term deal I’d find attractive for the O’s.    Whether Means would take it is another story entirely.    

I agree with SG that given Means’ age and relatively sparse track record, I wouldn’t be falling all over myself to lock him up.    But that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t explore a deal that’s favorable to the Orioles if Means pitches well and doesn’t kill them if he doesn’t.    
 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Like most things, it depends on price.   I’m sure there’s some long term deal I’d find attractive for the O’s.    Whether Means would take it is another story entirely.    

I agree with SG that given Means’ age and relatively sparse track record, I wouldn’t be falling all over myself to lock him up.    But that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t explore a deal that’s favorable to the Orioles if Means pitches well and doesn’t kill them if he doesn’t.    
 

Sure the deal would have to make sense.  But if a deal is there I think you take it and don't dither away the opportunity.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Exactly how many super recent examples were you expecting?  Not even the Rays pull of a deal like that on a yearly basis.  I think the Shields deal is very comparable.  I'm also unsure of why you are dismissive of Archer.  I've not seen much evidence that the age of a highly regarded (#1-2) guy impacts their value to anywhere near the extent it does position players.  Means is a pretty low mileage arm.  If you can trade him with 2-3 years of undermarket contract attached you will get a sold return.

 

I didn’t say you cant mention Shields, just said I was thinking about him.  
 

And if you don’t think age is a factor, I don’t know what to tell you.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like most things, it depends on price.   I’m sure there’s some long term deal I’d find attractive for the O’s.    Whether Means would take it is another story entirely.    

I agree with SG that given Means’ age and relatively sparse track record, I wouldn’t be falling all over myself to lock him up.    But that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t explore a deal that’s favorable to the Orioles if Means pitches well and doesn’t kill them if he doesn’t.    
 

Cant imagine you get it done for less than 6/50 and that may be a deal he doesn’t sign.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t say you can mention Shields, just said I was thinking about him.  
 

And if you don’t think age is a factor, I don’t know what to tell you.  

I didn't say it wasn't a factor, just not as big a one (particularly on a lower mileage arm) than it would be for a position player.  Archer was 29 when he was traded and had almost twice as many innings pitched than Means does currently.  Means, on the other hand, is getting stronger and throwing harder.  If Means is a proven #2 in 2023 I don't think his age is going to scuttle his trade value.

[Just Regular]

I liked a line I heard recently in the ballpark of, "Pitchers don't age, they break".

Frankly if the club wants a PR win this spring, I think Means probably is the best fit.  He's an ugly duckling more than Santander, and probably has less career left to make whatever money he's going to make.   For me, the question is more is he good enough?

What's a fair price point for an Option/Buyout structure of his FA Year 1?   As encouraging as his progress has been, I doubt I'd float a number today where he and his representation would be like, "best thing since sliced bread - let's go!"

If Elias/Sig have any Astros youngsters in their hearts, after Framber/Whitley news, and Myles Straw as the only CF on the roster, this is probably our highwater mark to obtain anything they remember for say Means and Hays.   I still half expect Kiermaier there before OD because its just what the Rays do.

Here's Keuchel playing out the string in Houston, plus FA Year 1 (Cy Young Award included):

26	Houston Astros	$508,700	1.089	contracts
2015	27	Houston Astros	$524,500	2.089	contracts
2016	28	Houston Astros	$7,250,000	3.089
2017	29	Houston Astros	$9,150,000	4.089	contracts
2018	30	Houston Astros	$13,200,000	5.089
2019	31	Atlanta Braves	$13,000,000	6.089	contract

[Frobby]

So what’s a deal you would and wouldn’t do?  Here’s mine:

Do: 4 years, $14 mm with two team options at $10 mm.

Dont do: 4 years, $20 mm with two team options at $13 mm and a $2 mm buyout.   

Here’s a few ex-Orioles (loosely) and what they earned in the four years before FA:

Bundy earned $17.8 mm 

Davies earned $17.0 mm

Tillman earned $21.1 mm 

Arrieta earned $30 mm

Cobb earned $12.2 mm, missing more than one full season with TJ surgery.

Cashner earned $14 mm

Ubaldo earned $14

Chen earned $17 mm

Gausman earned $18.4 mm (he was a Super 2 so I’m counting his last pre-Arb and first three Arb-eligible seasons; as it turns out, he was released after that).

Gonzalez earned $11.3 mm, despite being released by the O’s at the start of his Arb 2 season and losing about $3.3 mm in the process.