Szymborski: John Means could be a no. 2 starter

[HowAboutThat]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cant imagine you get it done for less than 6/50 and that may be a deal he doesn’t sign.

Giving Means 50 M is idiocy. And him turning it down would be even stupider.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what’s a deal you would and wouldn’t do?  Here’s mine:

Do: 4 years, $14 mm with two team options at $10 mm.

Dont do: 4 years, $20 mm with two team options at $13 mm and a $2 mm buyout.   

Here’s a few ex-Orioles (loosely) and what they earned in the four years before FA:

Bundy earned $17.8 mm 

Davies earned $17.0 mm

Tillman earned $21.1 mm 

Arrieta earned $30 mm

Cobb earned $12.2 mm, missing more than one full season with TJ surgery.

Cashner earned $14 mm

Ubaldo earned $14

Chen earned $17 mm

Gausman earned $18.4 mm (he was a Super 2 so I’m counting his last pre-Arb and first three Arb-eligible seasons; as it turns out, he was released after that).

Gonzalez earned $11.3 mm, despite being released by the O’s at the start of his Arb 2 season and losing about $3.3 mm in the process.    

As of today, I think it’s reasonable to project Means to make something around 20M in his 3 arb years.  
 

If he establishes himself as a #2 this year, the ceiling of that number rises significantly.

Cant imagine he signs the deals you would and wouldn’t do.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

Giving Means 50 M is idiocy. And him turning it down would be even stupider.

Depends on how much he wants to get on himself.  If he establishes himself as a #2 starter and stays a #2, he will make at least 50M the next 4 years.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

As of today, I think it’s reasonable to project Means to make something around 20M in his 3 arb years.  
 

If he establishes himself as a #2 this year, the ceiling of that number rises significantly.

Cant imagine he signs the deals you would and wouldn’t do.

I live in a world in which Ronald Acuna signed for 8/100 and Ozzie Albies signed for 7/35.  I can imagine Means signing the deal Frobby posited.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I live in a world in which Ronald Acuna signed for 8/100 and Ozzie Albies signed for 7/35.  I can imagine Means signing the deal Frobby posited.

You also live in a world where Tatis signed his deal.  Acuna made a huge mistake but he still can get a major deal after this one.

This will likely be the only big deal Means ever gets.  He isn’t signing for 4/14 or 4/20 with options that are that cheap.  
 

It also matters when you sign your deal. Means is older and has more service time.

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cant imagine you get it done for less than 6/50 and that may be a deal he doesn’t sign.

As you’ll see from my post above, I think that’s WAY more than it would take.    I seriously doubt Can_of_corn would be in favor of a deal like that.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You also live in a world where Tatis signed his deal.  Acuna made a huge mistake but he still can get a major deal after this one.

This will likely be the only big deal Means ever gets.  He isn’t signing for 4/14 or 4/20 with options that are that cheap.  
 

It also matters when you sign your deal. Means is older and has more service time.

Or he didn't make a mistake and signed a deal he's happy with.

I haven't heard about him having an issue with his contract.  Maybe you have?

We don't know these people.  We don't know what they want.

I don't think saying something like I can't imagine is accurate.  Deals that look to be under market get done.  Players also, I am sure, turn down deals that would turn out to be overpays.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

As you’ll see from my post above, I think that’s WAY more than it would take.    I seriously doubt Can_of_corn would be in favor of a deal like that.    

I'm not super interested in extending Means.  I'm just running with the idea that he's actually a #2 going forward, which is not something I think is likely.

If he is a #2 you should try and make a deal.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or he didn't make a mistake and signed a deal he's happy with.

I haven't heard about him having an issue with his contract.  Maybe you have?

We don't know these people.  We don't know what they want.

I don't think saying something like I can't imagine is accurate.  Deals that look to be under market get done.  Players also, I am sure, turn down deals that would turn out to be overpays.

I’m fine with saying it.  After seeing what Tatis got after very little service time, Acuna has to be kicking himself.  He may be happy to get 100M but he has left a lot of money on the table.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As you’ll see from my post above, I think that’s WAY more than it would take.    I seriously doubt Can_of_corn would be in favor of a deal like that.    

Conservatively, I think he makes 3/7/10 in his arb years if he continues to pitch at a level similar to 2019 and 2020.

If he establishes that 2019 is his norm, he makes more than that and gets 18-25m in his free agency years.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You also live in a world where Tatis signed his deal.  Acuna made a huge mistake but he still can get a major deal after this one.

This will likely be the only big deal Means ever gets.  He isn’t signing for 4/14 or 4/20 with options that are that cheap.  
 

It also matters when you sign your deal. Means is older and has more service time.

He doesn’t have much service time.   He’s making the minimum this year.   I just gave you a whole bunch of examples of what guys made in their pre-FA years.   

I think what you are underrating is the benefit of guaranteed money.    Sure if Means stays healthy and is successful he will make more than $14 mm.    But if he gets hurt or performs poorly, he could make a lot less.   The team has to get a discount compared to going year by year or there’s no point in doing a long term deal.    
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

He doesn’t have much service time.   He’s making the minimum this year.   I just gave you a whole bunch of examples of what guys made in their pre-FA years.   

I think what you are underrating is the benefit of guaranteed money.    Sure if Means stays healthy and is successful he will make more than $14 mm.    But if he gets hurt or performs poorly, he could make a lot less.   The team has to get a discount compared to going year by year or there’s no point in doing a long term deal.    
 

Yea but your discount isn’t reasonable imo.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yea but your discount isn’t reasonable imo.

Despite the fact that players have agreed to larger ones.

And it's "unimaginable" not "unreasonable".

[Just Regular]

Also on Keuchel, his first Free Agent contract with Atlanta wasn't signed until June 7, 2019.   I believe that was Keuchel holding out for what he believed he was worth, and the 30 clubs looking at a late bloomer without stellar FIP (Cy Young Award and all) and saying meh.

Now Means flashed stellar FIP in September and that and the velo is what is so exciting, but until there's more evidence Driveline and Driveline-adjacent gainers can hold their hotter stuff for several seasons, I'm in no rush for long term commitments.   

I don't doubt that novel tech is allowing pitchers to routinely attain greater heights now, but don't know how long that max performance can sustain.  Some of why I feel generally good about Sig is the former sleep specialty thing; as a broad strategy I would guess the Orioles are thinking more about that kind of stuff than some other clubs.

With no CBA, no knowledge of how the abbreviated 2020 echoes into every pitcher's 2021, I tend to think the only pitcher extensions clubs would agree to now would be even more team friendly than they normally are.

If they show it, I think DL Hall, Grayson and Gunnar are our first good test cases of will we be more proactive seeking options on FA years of future stars?  Hopefully next spring with a nice long CBA in place that makes some sense.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Despite the fact that players have agreed to larger ones.

And it's "unimaginable" not "unreasonable".

I’m good with unreasonable but thanks.