Gunnar Henderson 2021

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think the definition of what is and isn't ready would change dramatically if the contract issues weren't what they are.

Guys would actually develop some aspects of their game at the major league level. Particularly guys with openings on the ML team. 

I think this is largely a myth.   The average age of a major league debut has never been lower than 23.5 in the last 70 years, even before free agency and the draft existed.   I don’t think you’ll see a ton of high school guys who spend less than two full years in the minors.   The ones that do will generally be the superstars, guys like Machado and Harper.   The Hendersons of the world will still be taking 3-4 years to develop.   (In Henderson’s case, COVID delayed his debelopment.)

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think this is largely a myth.   The average age of a major league debut has never been lower than 23.5 in the last 70 years, even before free agency and the draft existed.   I don’t think you’ll see a ton of high school guys who spend less than two full years in the minors.   The ones that do will generally be the superstars, guys like Machado and Harper.   The Hendersons of the world will still be taking 3-4 years to develop.   (In Henderson’s case, COVID delayed his debelopment.)

Did it?

I think folks are underestimating the impact of the extended camp situation they had last year, particularly with a young player like Henderson. 

[Aglets]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did it?

I think folks are underestimating the impact of the extended camp situation they had last year, particularly with a young player like Henderson. 

I think it's pretty obvious that Gunnar would not have started the 2021 season at Delmarva if there had been a 2020 minor league season.

Would he now be further along in his development as a result?    I think so.   You can make the opposing argument if you want.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

I think it's pretty obvious that Gunnar would not have started the 2021 season at Delmarva if there had been a 2020 minor league season.

Would he now be further along in his development as a result?    I think so.   You can make the opposing argument if you want.

I'll agree that he would not have started in Delmarva.

I don't think he'd be further along overall. 

I think that sort of one on one time with the experts and the exposure to higher level competition is rather valuable.

[LookinUp]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think this is largely a myth.   The average age of a major league debut has never been lower than 23.5 in the last 70 years, even before free agency and the draft existed.   I don’t think you’ll see a ton of high school guys who spend less than two full years in the minors.   The ones that do will generally be the superstars, guys like Machado and Harper.   The Hendersons of the world will still be taking 3-4 years to develop.   (In Henderson’s case, COVID delayed his debelopment.)

I think pointing to averages is dangerous in general. Pointing to averages from days gone by before modern baseball is also dangerous. And pointing to averages as opposed to how teams in different competitive situations specifically handled younger players is also dangerous.

I have no idea whether any of this will affect Henderson, or would even with major service time changes, but I absolutely think that ML teams that aren't competitive but have young stars would be motivated for many reasons to promote guys sooner than they do now.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think pointing to averages is dangerous in general. Pointing to averages from days gone by before modern baseball is also dangerous. And pointing to averages as opposed to how teams in different competitive situations specifically handled younger players is also dangerous.

I have no idea whether any of this will affect Henderson, or would even with major service time changes, but I absolutely think that ML teams that aren't competitive but have young stars would be motivated for many reasons to promote guys sooner than they do now.

When I originally published this information, I gave not only the median age of debut, but the number of players debuting at 21 or younger, 22 or younger and the age of the 70th youngest player.   I’m not sure about your point about days gone by - I looked at every decade from 1950 to now.   Feel free to look at the details and interpret them any way you like:

 

[LTO's]

35 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think pointing to averages is dangerous in general. Pointing to averages from days gone by before modern baseball is also dangerous. And pointing to averages as opposed to how teams in different competitive situations specifically handled younger players is also dangerous.

I have no idea whether any of this will affect Henderson, or would even with major service time changes, but I absolutely think that ML teams that aren't competitive but have young stars would be motivated for many reasons to promote guys sooner than they do now.

In what way are any of those things "dangerous"? You don't explain at all. If anything, the talent gap between established ML players and younger guys in the minors has never been larger. I highly, highly doubt we'll see contenders/hopeful contenders start to aggressively promote 19-20 year olds with little upper minors experience. Those teams are competing for playoff spots and a large chunk of those prospects will be below replacement level at those ages. 

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did it?

Did the alternate site? Seems like you can interpret it however you'd like. The prevailing opinion from those in the industry was that the alt site was better than nothing but in no way was a substitute for a 100+ game season against your peers. 

[LookinUp]

Well, your post states that the number of young players has declined since free agency started.

Obviously you didn't do a full blown study, nor should you be expected to do that, but isn't it fair to conclude that player control has affected the number of players making the majors at a younger age? It's pretty striking that the raw number has declined as the number of teams, roster size (though I don't know history there) and youth playing options have all been enhanced.

 

* I concede that there other other confounders, for example players are likely playing older now, so there may be fewer spots available then there otherwise would be if the same age curve was expected.

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

In what way are any of those things "dangerous"? You don't explain at all. If anything, the talent gap between established ML players and younger guys in the minors has never been larger. I highly, highly doubt we'll see contenders/hopeful contenders start to aggressively promote 19-20 year olds with little upper minors experience. Those teams are competing for playoff spots and a large chunk of those prospects will be below replacement level at those ages. 

Dangerous in terms of drawing conclusions.

I would expect more young players to be promoted if 1) they were on the cusp and their team had a glaring opening and/or 2) their team was in playoff contention and could really use that awesome arm out of the bullpen or power bat.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Dangerous in terms of drawing conclusions.

I would expect more young players to be promoted if 1) they were on the cusp and their team had a glaring opening and/or 2) their team was in playoff contention and could really use that awesome arm out of the bullpen or power bat.

I certainly didn’t mean to suggest these points aren’t valid.  Honestly, I think even with the current rules teams take a different attitude when they are contending than when they aren’t.   

I just want to bring this back to the Gunnar Hendersons of the world.   I don’t think a change in the rules will cause teams to take guys like him and try to push them through the minors in two years instead of three to four.   Teams don’t slow-promote guys like that for service time reasons IMO.   Maybe they look at that when the player reaches AAA and they are considering a promotion to the majors, but I don’t think it impacts going from hi A to AA or AA to AAA very much at all.
 

[LookinUp]

Right. So about Gunnar, if he starts in AA next year and has a great year, I can see him being promoted to the majors next year if there weren't service time issues.

I don't expect Gunnar to necessarily put himself in Grayson Rodriguez territory on the prospect scene, but the current system would delay him by several months for sure.

[NCRaven]

45 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Right. So about Gunnar, if he starts in AA next year and has a great year, I can see him being promoted to the majors next year if there weren't service time issues.

I don't expect Gunnar to necessarily put himself in Grayson Rodriguez territory on the prospect scene, but the current system would delay him by several months for sure.

I doubt that Gunnar will be a consideration for the major league roster during 2022 unless service time rules are changed.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I doubt that Gunnar will be a consideration for the major league roster during 2022 unless service time rules are changed.  

If there were no service time rules then @Can_of_corn will have been right about Gunnar being in the MLB next year. Or however aggressive he thought. Credit where credit is due. 
 

If there are service time issues then he’d be on track to be up after June 1 in 2023. 
 

Post June 1, 2023, we could see Gunnar, Hall, Cowser, and Mayo all being up. 
 

Post June 1 2022, we could see AR, GR, Westburg, Stowers, and Vavra. 
 

Bottomline is that the position players will be coming in waves. 
 

I hope Gunnar mashes and helps leads Bowie to a title. Plus he’s back with his friend Westburg. 

[7Mo]

58 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If there were no service time rules then @Can_of_corn will have been right about Gunnar being in the MLB next year. Or however aggressive he thought. Credit where credit is due. 
 

Is it possible that Gunnar's arrival in MLB has to do with his development and NOT service time?