Tankathon

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I'm shocked to find that you have a negative viewpoint on the Orioles.  Shocked.

'ol webbrick is a seagull...flies around, poops on everything.  Flies away, comes back...poops on everything, etc, etc.

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

Causes

• Fungi. Yeast infections, such as candida...

 

 

I'm getting slow in my old age...

 

 

I thought it was Neil Diamond... SORRY for the T.O. and Dawn...

Really. SORRY!

I have ONE job here...

[foxfield]

7 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

I really don't see any base to build from

I don't see a single guy on the ML roster that will be a key contributor to the next competitive team

That means we are still at a point where we need to add 15 to 20 new players to the roster and I just don't see that quantity of talent in the system.

We have had a 1-1 and a 1-2 and those guys should have been impact guys but I don't have high hopes for either pick. 

I would agree that major core pieces are not here or haven't been shown...although John Means could be...

But it is also a bit unfair as there are a number of folks on the current active roster who could be upgrades to our last competitive team.  I know you said Key....but if you are talking competitive....every piece is key.  Like could we use anyone to pitch in place of Ubaldo in the 11th inning from this team?

2016 the playoff loss to the Blue Jays in the wild card....Hyun Soo Kim started in LF.  Id take multiple Orioles from this roster for that spot.  Mountcastle, Hays, Stewart are no brainers.  Right Field in that 2016 game was Michael Bourn.  I'd take Santander over him and I think you would as well....

This will look better soon.  How good is going to be the difference between getting Schoops and Machados and even Wieters or just fillers.  The jury is out on key Pieces. But Tillman, Jones, Hardy, Davis and Trumbo were all acquired by trades.  I don't know if we have studs yet...but this team doesn't need 20 players to be competitive either.  

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201610040.shtml

[fitzi22]

I think the rebuild or “talkathon” needs to be looked at in a different light.  First of all comparing the Astros rebuild to ours simply isn’t fair.  Elias and Luhnow introduced analytics at a much broader level than had ever been done before.  This gave the Astros a distinctive edge for several years in both analyzing players and fine tuning their skills.  Houston was already involved in the international market, Luhnow and company simply refined and advanced it.  Also Houston got super lucky with several players playing above their ability level.

 

Elias is basically starting from scratch in Baltimore.  All of the young talent filtering into the majors now was acquired by the previous regime and really all of them are deeply flawed players that we really wish wasn’t true.  Elias is trying to fine tune players skills on flawed players all while trying to build the system to maximize a players ability around them. It’s actually a very difficult job.  Not to mention the Orioles had zero contact with international prospects for almost a decade.  That system has been constructed from the ground up and once running at full steam it will still take a minimum of 4 years for those players to make it to the majors.  
 

The kicker is if all of this goes right it doesn’t give us a competitive advantage like it did the Astros, it simply makes the team competitive again and on the same playing field as all the other franchises.  Which I think would feel like a major win at this time, but we might have a different tune in 5 years when the team is still .500.

[Orioles0615]

On 4/16/2021 at 2:08 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

Sharpen the pitchforks for Rutschman's inevitable 2-for-8 with 3 Ks start that is a harbinger of doom.

Oh I know this is coming. It would not surprise me at all if Rutschman starts off slow, not because I think he will bust but because the Orioles are just cursed and can't have nice things. 

[Surhoffan17]

Well, my take on our future is that it boils down to three "main" things happening.  Without them, we won't be competitive for a while.  And these three items are fairly obvious:

1) DL Hall develops into a no. 1 or 2 starter (not just reaches the majors or is another Matusz, Gausman, etc.)

2) Grayson Rodriguez same as above. 

3) Adley Rutschmann turns into a potent middle of the lineup guy.  I know some on here are down on him, but it could happen.  

 

No. 1 and 2 are the most important because quite simply good pitching will beat good hitting.   Everything outside of these three would help, but these are three that we most need.  We do have some flexibility out of our OF/1B/DH types.  Not all have to develop because there is some depth and not all of our prospects have to be great, many can just be serviceable.  

IF (always the key word) GrayRod and DL Hall are true no. 1 and 2 starters (asking a lot I know), then ideally Means is your number 3 and then any two out of Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman, Lowther, Sedlock, K Smith, Wells could round out the rotation.  As someone else said, some of those guys could wind up being good relievers since that is common for failed starting pitchers.  

I am a little surprised at the overall negativity when one of the publications has us at no. 5 in organizational rankings.  I know it remains to be seen if that is accurate, but presumably these publications know more about our system than most anyone on here.  

[beantownrefugee]

13 minutes ago, Surhoffan17 said:

Well, my take on our future is that it boils down to three "main" things happening.  Without them, we won't be competitive for a while.  And these three items are fairly obvious:

1) DL Hall develops into a no. 1 or 2 starter (not just reaches the majors or is another Matusz, Gausman, etc.)

2) Grayson Rodriguez same as above. 

3) Adley Rutschmann turns into a potent middle of the lineup guy.  I know some on here are down on him, but it could happen. 

IF (always the key word) GrayRod and DL Hall are true no. 1 and 2 starters (asking a lot I know), then ideally Means is your number 3 and then any two out of Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman, Lowther, Sedlock, K Smith, Wells could round out the rotation. 

I am a little surprised at the overall negativity when one of the publications has us at no. 5 in organizational rankings.  I know it remains to be seen if that is accurate, but presumably these publications know more about our system than most anyone on here.  

I am as well.  Rob Long pointed out on MASN yesterday that the O's are #5 and the Rangers #21, and stated the O's are further along in the rebuild.  #5 vs. #21 is a big gap, regardless of whether those are pinpoint precise.

If Means were to be our #3, then that would mean DL Hall and GrayRod would be Koufax and Drysdale!  Means looks pretty darn good to these eyes.

Edited April 19, 2021 by beantownrefugee

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Surhoffan17 said:

I am a little surprised at the overall negativity when one of the publications has us at no. 5 in organizational rankings.  I know it remains to be seen if that is accurate, but presumably these publications know more about our system than most anyone on here.  

So far as I know there’s just one major publication (MLB.com) that ranks us as high as 5th.   BA and Prospects 1500 have us 7th, Keith Law has us 18th.   Fangraphs hasn’t finished its ratings yet but so far we are 9th out of 21 teams they’ve evaluated.   I think we’ll end up 11th or 12th there based on the teams they haven’t ranked yet.   

In my mind, our system is above average but not elite at this point.   And it’s really hard to get to elite when you have virtually no international prospects who’ve played full season baseball.
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So far as I know there’s just one major publication (MLB.com) that ranks us as high as 5th.   BA and Prospects 1500 have us 7th, Keith Law has us 18th.   Fangraphs hasn’t finished its ratings yet but so far we are 9th out of 21 teams they’ve evaluated.   I think we’ll end up 11th or 12th there based on the teams they haven’t ranked yet.   

In my mind, our system is above average but not elite at this point.   And it’s really hard to get to elite when you have virtually no international prospects who’ve played full season baseball.
 

Having a 1-1, a 1-2 and five more former first round picks all eligible for the list should help.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Having a 1-1, a 1-2 and five more former first round picks all eligible for the list should help.

Sure it does.   But you pretty much need to pull an inside straight on your domestic talent when you have neglected international talent that makes up 30% of the market.   And there’s more to having a great farm system than doing well with your no. 1 picks.    

[Ripken]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Having a 1-1, a 1-2 and five more former first round picks all eligible for the list should help.

We refuse to play the 1-1 and, so far, the 1-2 is a disaster.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure it does.   But you pretty much need to pull an inside straight on your domestic talent when you have neglected international talent that makes up 30% of the market.   And there’s more to having a great farm system than doing well with your no. 1 picks.    

Folks act as if they never produced players from the International market.

It wasn't the total black hole folks like to proclaim.

(Not calling you out for it but others).

And seriously, you hit on seven #1 picks and have them all in your system at once, including a 1-1 and a 1-2 and yea, that alone should get you 12th out of 30.

Thing is they didn't hit on all seven and don't have a real 1-2.

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks act as if they never produced players from the International market.

It wasn't the total black hole folks like to proclaim.

(Not calling you out for it but others).

And seriously, you hit on seven #1 picks and have them all in your system at once, including a 1-1 and a 1-2 and yea, that alone should get you 12th out of 30.

Thing is they didn't hit on all seven and don't have a real 1-2.

Do we really even have a 1:10 with Kjerstad?   At this point I have no idea.   

I guess we are talking about:

2015: Mountcastle (36)

2016: Sedlock (27)

2017: Hall (21)

2018: Rodriguez (11), Grenier (37)

2019: Rutschman (1)

2020: Kjerstad (2), Westburg (30)

So actually, that’s 8 first round picks, not 7.    We won’t know for a while who we hit on.   Sedlock and Grenier seem unlikely.    Everyone else has a shot, but there will probably be more attrition.   That’s the way it goes.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Do we really even have a 1:10 with Kjerstad?   At this point I have no idea.   

I guess we are talking about:

2015: Mountcastle (36)

2016: Sedlock (27)

2017: Hall (21)

2018: Rodriguez (11), Grenier (37)

2019: Rutschman (1)

2020: Kjerstad (2), Westburg (30)

So actually, that’s 8 first round picks, not 7.    We won’t know for a while who we hit on.   Sedlock and Grenier seem unlikely.    Everyone else has a shot, but there will probably be more attrition.   That’s the way it goes.   
 

Sorry, left off Westburg.  Last year's draft is just kinda a blur, I was thinking Westburg was a two.

[Philip]

On 4/16/2021 at 8:21 AM, webbrick2010 said:

Yep I have been very negative on this pick from the moment it was made. Time will tell

Did you prefer Lacy or Witt?