The Downward Spiral

[PeteCanes]

Means should be traded yesterday, this team had a long haul ahead

[Orioles0615]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is playoffs the goal?

right now it feels like the goal is to maybe win 75 games one day

[Beysbol]

2 hours ago, fansince1988 said:

Not enough pieces behind them to contend, IMO. I still think, at best, we are 3-6 years away from contending, and that's if we draft (or trade) for pitching. They are clearly not going to spend on pitching, so they need to strike lightning in the draft with pitchers, (or trade), and move the fences back, to consistently compete in this division. 

I agree on the 3-6 years. This organization was so utterly bad in every area that I don't think people understand how long this process is going to take. 

[Greenpastures23]

1 hour ago, PeteCanes said:

Means should be traded yesterday, this team had a long haul ahead

What about Mancini

[Bahama O's Fan]

I just wish one reporter in one interview would ask Elias, "What year do you realistically expect to contend for the AL East title?"

[Philip]

The Cardinals never have a single digit draft pick and yet they have a good team every year. 

We don’t have to be terrible to be good. The returns from Mike’s trades are still incomplete, but if he trades well, and can trade effectively for “now” players, the team can be good without suffering much longer.

The problem is that he hasn’t changed his trade target yet and we don’t know how well he’ll do when he does.

And Brandon Hyde is not a good manager. He needs to go. One more season after this one and then gone. And bring in someone who demands more and gets it.

[PeteCanes]

3 hours ago, Greenpastures23 said:

What about Mancini

2 years ago

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

The Cardinals never have a single digit draft pick and yet they have a good team every year.

The Cardinals play in the NL Central and in 2019 had revenues about $130M more than the Orioles.  And they had a functioning farm and amateur acquisition system for the past 40 years, unlike the Orioles.

[LA2]

17 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias' trade history shows he has not traded anyone that is likely a part of the O's next contender.   Alberto, Nunez and Villar were not likely to be part of an O's contender.  Mancini, Santander and Means have a good change to help the O's to contention.

Add in Bundy and Cashner (SP), Castro and Givens (RP), and Iglesias (SS). Some of these are or were not likely to be part because of ability and some because of age.

[LA2]

On 5/22/2021 at 6:22 PM, Three Run Homer said:

Elias' history in Baltimore is that he has no sentimental attachments to players.  Hanser Alberto and Renato Nunez had some good moments in O's uniforms, but at the end of the day, they weren't good enough to warrant arbitration-level salaries, so out they went.  Jonathan Villar was the team's best player his last season in Baltimore, but he was going to make too much money in arbitration, so he was traded for a bucket of balls.  

So his history suggests that he won't hesitate to trade Mancini, Santander or even John Means if the price is right.  Hopefully he will be making those decisions mostly on the basis of talent received in return, rather than salary savings.  Except for the Villar trade, when he had zero leverage, I think he has been able to get actual prospects back in most of his trades.  He even got a decent prospect for Andrew Cashner.  

Although I was among those who were pained to see these fan favorites leave, I must admit that Elias seems to have shown a shrewd eye as to when players have either crested or shown they were replaceable at less cost.  Let's take a quick look at their performance since leaving the O's:

Bundy 8 starts, 0-6, 6.02 ERA/4.10 FIP this season after a fine, but short 11-start 2020.

Cashner Last pitched with Boston in 2019: 2-5, 6.20 ERA/5.38 FIP.

M. Castro 3.12 ERA/3.38 FIP in 18 games this season with the Mets after 4.10/4.19 in 10 games with them in 2020.

Givens 6.75 ERA/9.41 FIP in 10 games with Colorado (2020), 3.86/6.46 in 18 games with the Rockies in 2021.

Alberto This season with the Royals: 86 PAs, ZERO walks and HRs, .241/.250/.349/.599; OPS+ 64.

Villar With Miami and Toronto (2020): 207 PAs, .232/.301/.292/.593; OPS+ 64; with Mets this season: 113 PAs, .210/.291/.371/.662, OPS+ 86.

Nunez Could only get 29 PAs with the lowly Tigers and not because of injury: .148/.207/.444/.651.

Iglesias 160 PAs, .266/.294/.377/.670, OPS+ 84.

Of these, only Bundy last year and Castro this year were missed--and the Mets may be shielding Castro by restricting him to one-inning, lower-leverage situations, unlike Buck's longer, more confident deployment of him.

Galvis (OPS+ 120) has been a more than sufficient replacement for Iglesias for much less salary (S1.5 million vs. $3.5 million), just as Iglesias was a fine replacement for Villar the year before, and I don't expect Galvis' stats to go below Iglesias' this season.

Franco's stats have dropped precipitously, but at least he's still in the major leagues, unlike Nunez, is a slightly better glove, and his bat is likely to revive sooner than later.

This record, plus the addition of off-the-radar players like our closer Valdez, give me more confidence in Elias than I had in Duquette to know when to trade and for whom.



 

 

[Philip]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Cardinals play in the NL Central and in 2019 had revenues about $130M more than the Orioles.  And they had a functioning farm and amateur acquisition system for the past 40 years, unlike the Orioles.

 

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Cardinals play in the NL Central and in 2019 had revenues about $130M more than the Orioles.  And they had a functioning farm and amateur acquisition system for the past 40 years, unlike the Orioles.

The point is that the Cardinals have an established farm, and they run it very well, and don’t  have to spend vast dollars on FA contracts. They are able to maintain a solid farm even though they never pick in single digits. That’s my point. We shouldn’t be needing to pick in the first five in order to have a good system. I understand that it’s been awful for years and needed to be completely made over, but now that it has been done, we shouldn’t need to yearn for a top-3 pick any longer.

Wise trading will bring in the things we need that we weren’t able to draft.

[Oriole1940]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Cardinals play in the NL Central and in 2019 had revenues about $130M more than the Orioles.  And they had a functioning farm and amateur acquisition system for the past 40 years, unlike the Orioles.

I was born and raised in the St.Louis general area ,on the Ill. side of the river.  I can tell you that contending every year is no accident,  and does not matter what teams they play. I would take their  least  knowledgeable executive above a lot of teams most knowledgeable one,  every day of the week, and twice on Sunday. And since their  executives have changed many times in my lifetime, since I am in my 80s, they also know who to hire as the decades roll by.  

[Frobby]

On 5/22/2021 at 6:34 PM, wildcard said:

Elias' trade history shows he has not traded anyone that is likely a part of the O's next contender.   Alberto, Nunez and Villar were not likely to be part of an O's contender.  Mancini, Santander and Means have a good change to help the O's to contention.

Mancini will be a free agent after 2022, so I don’t see him helping us to contend unless he signs an extension, which doesn’t seem to be in the cards.    There’s a better chance with Santander (two years remaining after this one) or Means (three).

I think there are considerations in play with Mancini that didn’t apply to Villar, Nunez or Alberto.   I don’t think many Orioles fans were attached to those three players the way they are to Mancini.    And I think he’s pretty big in the clubhouse, too.    I tend to doubt any of that would preclude Elias from trading him, but it might cause his price point to be a little higher.  

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mancini will be a free agent after 2022, so I don’t see him helping us to contend unless he signs an extension, which doesn’t seem to be in the cards.    There’s a better chance with Santander (two years remaining after this one) or Means (three).

I think there are considerations in play with Mancini that didn’t apply to Villar, Nunez or Alberto.   I don’t think many Orioles fans were attached to those three players the way they are to Mancini.    And I think he’s pretty big in the clubhouse, too.    I tend to doubt any of that would preclude Elias from trading him, but it might cause his price point to be a little higher.  

I am rooting for the O's to sign Mancini 2/25.    Maybe with an option year.    That could happen as soon as July.   He fits very well in the rebuild.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am rooting for the O's to sign Mancini 2/25.    Maybe with an option year.    That could happen as soon as July.   He fits very well in the rebuild.

I don’t think I’d sign for 2/$25 if I were Mancini, if he keeps hitting like he is now.   He’ll be more marketable after his age 30 season than his age 31 season, and that’s not enough money to offset it IMO.