The Downward Spiral

[wildcard]

21 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Exactly. if the team stunk but the young players were doing well at the major league level, or at least showing promise, I'd feel better. But you can't keep putting embarrassing teams on the field and the major league level then promote you prospects and watch them fail or at least watch them not improve.

Elias may need to sacrifice an unproductive coaching staff here soon or the heat will start on him. My biggest concern is the poor performance of Mountcastle, Stewart, Kremer, Zimmermann, and Akin at the major league level this year. How can they all be bad? 

Why just give the Sisco the starting catching job for a month? If he still stinks, send him back to the minors of DFA him. Why is Lopez still starting? Why does Hyde continue to try and push him past where he's effective? the team is not particularly strong on fundamentals and Hyde, who once was honest with the media, has now become a media cliché machine.

It's just all a mess right now. The apathy of the fan base is at an all-time high because the Orioles refuse to put out even a decent team during this rebuild. Last year it appeared to be a little bit of a turning point with Mountcastle doing well and the team playing decent for 30 games, but it's pretty clear this team was the team that collapsed over the last 30 games and Mountcastle's approach has completely regressed.

I really think Elias is going to have to make a splash international signing on a nearly ready or ready superstar, and he's going to have to be aggressive with his top prospects and get them to the show as quickly as possible because right now, I don't see how this team is even decent next year or even in two years without some major signings and major jumps in talent status.

When you get to pick 1-1 and 1-2, and you 1-1 guy is struggling a bit in AA, and no one has seen your 1-2 guy, it doesn't make people think this organization is going to be turning things around anytime soon.

Just the cold hard facts.

A lot of good stuff here from Tony and Frobby.   

I think the need to improve at the major league level next year is why Mancini and Means are kept and probably both are extended over the winter.   The O's management can not afford to trade them for prospects that are several years from helping at the major league level.  

This is also why the rotation is probably Means, Grayson, DL, Bradish and Baumann for most of next season.  And why Adley will arrive early in 2022.   Its time to show progress at the major league level in 2022.  I don't really think Adley is struggling at AA.   He has a 430 OBP and a 883 OPS.  He has 4 homers and 13 RBI in 67 AB.   The only thing that is down is his average and I consider that just an adjustment from jumping two levels.   I think he will be in AAA by mid July.

I am not concerned about Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mancini, and Mountcastle.   Yes, the league has adjusted to Mountcastle and he has to adjust back.  He has hit  all the way through he minors and I think  he will hit in the majors given time.  He is a 1B/DH with the ability to be a backup player in LF.   This is a really nice core of players to add Adley to next year.  2B/SS/3B are yet to be solved and stopgaps are needed before the Delmarva guys arrive in a few years.    i think Vavra, McCoy, and Wilkerson get their shots to be the stopgaps or maybe more.     I think ownership will spend money to put infield stopgaps in place this off season as needed.     It will get worse before it gets better if Galvis is traded at the deadline.   UrIas and Valaika  will not be great stopgaps  but we may see them a lot in 2021. 

Next year Zimmerman, Lopez and Kremer may compete for starting spots but  may end up to  be stopgap starters, spot starters and long relievers added to whoever is carried over in the pen.    I want to see how much progress Holt can make with the pitchers when he returns.   

Actually  high draft choices  in 2022 may extend the O's winning window by a few years.   I would rather think about that then all the losing that is happening right now.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

 

Actually  high draft choices  in 2022 may extend the O's winning window by a few years.   I would rather think about that then all the losing that is happening right now.

You think picking a few slots higher in one draft could extend the window by years?

Going to have to be one heck of a good draft!

[jabba72]

Well these are Elias latest quotes on the struggles of the team. He still seems to think Akin and Kremer are major league quality starters based on these comments.

 

 

When he talked with O’s reporters before Wednesday’s loss, the Orioles’ ninth in a row, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said some struggles were to be expected this season and that the team will not change its future course because of three brutal weeks of baseball when the Orioles have gone 2-16.“

Quote

 

We are remaining on target with what we’re trying to do, which is build for a sustainable, competitive, playoff-caliber future for this organization for a long time so we do not have to undergo a process this traumatic ever again,” Elias said.

“I don’t think anyone’s happy about the win-loss record. We haven’t been since we’ve been here. But it’s very important for us to remain focused and committed. Overreacting briefly to struggles from young players, making rash roster decisions with guys that have bright futures is not in our long-term nor short-term best interest.

“So we remain committed and focused and working hard every day on what we do and understand that baseball can be like this, especially when you’re going through what we’re going through. And the players themselves have the same approach and know that the hits will start to fall or they will get into a groove on the mound. And we wait for that to happen. We see talent here and we see youth here and want to continue to support these players and allow them to develop and get better.”

Elias said the organization remains fully behind the rebuilding efforts and its young players, both in the majors and on the farm.

“We continue to have the utmost confidence in the coaches and player development professionals that we have up and down the organization,” he said. “The people that are involved in guiding these young players and coaching them and making decisions about their futures. And the players themselves. This wave of young players right now that are undergoing some struggles in what I call their sophomore seasons are a very talented group. I don’t think this is unexpected. Sophomore slumps are real.

“You are looking at young pitchers that have undergone struggles this year. The ERAs are a little high, but the strikeout and walk numbers remain positive. Those are interesting and indicative of future results. And we see a lot of talent there. This is a group of players that we believe in.”

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/05/elias-on-team-struggles-and-sticking-with-the-plan.html

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think for a second he was unhappy with the record in 2019 or 2020, unless it was because they didn't finish dead last.

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Well these are Elias latest quotes on the struggles of the team. He still seems to think Akin and Kremer are major league quality starters based on these comments.

 

 

When he talked with O’s reporters before Wednesday’s loss, the Orioles’ ninth in a row, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said some struggles were to be expected this season and that the team will not change its future course because of three brutal weeks of baseball when the Orioles have gone 2-16.“

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/05/elias-on-team-struggles-and-sticking-with-the-plan.html

There's no reason to not keep throwing them out there. Most likely only 1 or 2 develope into a reliable starter, but the test may become useful relievers. Some may never become anything.

[wildcard]

Next guy to leave the rotation may be Matt Harvey.  He is not part of the future and he appears to be killing his trade value with every start.  He needs a good start on Friday or he could be replaced.

[slakattack]

As a guy (full disclosure) who was very upset at the time of the Bedard trade, you think I would have learned to see the value in dealing a pitcher while his value is high, but I can't agree with putting Means on the table just because the rest of staff is a dumpster fire. What could we realistically expect to get for him? Two SP prospects, one of which may one day, maybe, become...John Means? Of course the deal would be rounded out with a utility infielder and a bag of balls. I know he's 28, but 2 years from now (if this team is going to compete) at the very least he is anchoring the center of the rotation.

[Three Run Homer]

On 5/26/2021 at 10:32 AM, Frobby said:

“I can’t put a time frame on it.   It’s a process.”

That’s what he’s going to say.    That’s what he said when he was hired, and it’s still true.    

Now, that’s all well and good, but the natives are getting restless.    Ownership is probably getting restless too.   All this is completely predictable.  The list of GMs who have survived after five straight losing seasons is pretty short.  

My feeling is — and has been since day one — that this is the last year Elias can field an uncompetitive team.  Next year’s team needs to show a lot of improvement in the W-L record, and the team two years from now needs to have a winning record and be seen as a team on the rise, not just a team that’s going to tread water at .520.

Honestly, it may not be that easy.   The AL East is riding high once again, after a few years of a relative down cycle.    But Elias needs to find a way to do it, or patience will expire.    That’s reality.   

 

You may be right about Elias' job security.  However, it's worth keeping in mind that teams that have been awful for several years can sometimes get good very quickly.  The O's W-L records from 2008 through 2011 were 68-93, 64-98, 66-96 and 69-93.  No upward trend.  You know what happened in 2012.  

The Astros' W-L records from 2011 through 2014 were 56-106, 55-107, 51-111, and 70-92.  They moved from being putrid to being just bad.  Then in 2015 they went 86-76 and made the playoffs.  

This looks like it will be a terrible season for the O's in terms of wins and losses but that doesn't mean things can't turn around quickly next season or the season after.  

[Moose Milligan]

At least we're not THIS bad...

 

....right?

[maybenxtyr]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

At least we're not THIS bad...

 

....right?

There's still time...

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, maybenxtyr said:

There's still time...

Thats about as bad as a fielding play as you'll ever see, especially considering there were two outs.  

But you're right, there's a chance that our team could do something just as bad.