My 21st Century Orioles All Star Team

[Just Regular]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We’ve got 2/3 of a good outfield.  

The 2022 power rankings of Santander, Stowers and Mancini for the OF3/DH reps might need some public relations finesse.

One hopes 2022 Rutschman/Rodriguez might follow Mullins' path to rapid placement on these single-season scales!

When I peeked at September month-to-date Plate Discipline numbers the other day, I did notice Hays had leapfrogged even Mountcastle in Chase Rate so far, but when a talented batter is running hot I can give some leeway.   I didn't go so far as the percentile look to see if they were meeting in the middle, RMC was improving, or Hays is just really feeling the hot streak.

[foxfield]

The Orioles are worse than they should have been...and they were never going to be good.  But the underperformance of the pitchers has made everything worse.   The Orioles have a decent young outfield and have a ton of talent to push them.  They have several DH/1B and should look to move someone....Mancini would be tough but probably best.  

I do believe the Orioles have a chance to surprise on the upside next year.  But winning 70 or more games will require a huge improvement in pitching and that isn't going to happen internally this winter.

I look forward to Frobbys update and it will be wild to think that as bad as this year has been that there are potential highlights from this year.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ll post the final numbers when the season ends, but Mullins 2021 is easily going to supplant Jones 2013 as the greatest season any Orioles’ CF has had in the 21st Century.   Mullins is also in a good position to bump Corey Patterson off the list as the second best career CF the O’s have had this century, but it will take him another decent season to do it. I’ll have more to say about it all when the final numbers are in.   

Well, anyone who thought about it probably realized some time ago that Mullins might pass Jones on this list.   But guess who else might sneak on?   Austin Hays.  As mentioned in the OP, LF has been a weak spot for the O’s this century, with Nolan Reimold 2009 and Luke Scott 2006 holding the two spots at 2.6 rWAR.   Hays is at 2.9 rWAR right now, and has more RBI than either Reimold or Scott and could pass Scott in homers as well (he’s already well beyond Reimold).   His OPS isn’t as good as those two but he’s much better defensively than either of them.  

We’ve got 2/3 of a good outfield.  
 

If Mullins can come close to replicating what he did this year in 2022, you're going to have to start to wonder if he's going to wind up with a better career than Jones.

Jones has a leg up in the sense that he was playing full time at a younger age.  But Mullins with a 6.2 rWAR season has a chance to catch him.  Even if he doesn't catch him from a WAR perspective, he could lay claim to putting together better seasons than Jones ever did.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If Mullins can come close to replicating what he did this year in 2022, you're going to have to start to wonder if he's going to wind up with a better career than Jones.

Jones has a leg up in the sense that he was playing full time at a younger age.  But Mullins with a 6.2 rWAR season has a chance to catch him.  Even if he doesn't catch him from a WAR perspective, he could lay claim to putting together better seasons than Jones ever did.

In his 5 peak seasons, Jones was worth 20.5 rWAR, varying between 3.3 and 4.8 rWAR.  That’s almost 2/3 of his caeeer total.  If Mullins can top that from 2021-25, he enters the conversation.   Of course, he’d have to do it all as an Oriole.  

[Frobby]

From the OP: 

Catcher

1.  Matt Wieters, 2011: 5.2 rWAR, .262/.328/.450, 110 OPS+, 22 HR, 68 RBI.   Was an all star and won his first Gold Glove.

2.  Javy Lopez, 2004: 4.8 rWAR, .316/.370/.503, 127 OPS+, 23 HR, 86 RBI.  Better than Wieters offensively but nowhere near as good defensively.

Comment: Pretty easy choices here.   Ramon Hernandez was very good in 2006 (4.2 rWAR).   You could also argue that Wieters’ best season was 2012 (4.1 rWAR but had 23 HR, 83 RBI and repeated as an all-star and Gold Glover).  

====

So, am I prepared to drop in Adley Rutschman, 2022: 5.2 rWAR, .254/.362/.445, 128 OPS+, 13 HR, 42 RBI?  By rWAR or OPS+, I could, but I won’t.    Why?   Well, first of all, those HR and RBI totals are pretty modest.   And second, I’m just going to wait until Adley has a season that blows these away.     It probably won’t take long.  And by the way, Adley’s probably going to be the no. 2 career catcher for the Orioles by the end of next year, too.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

Better than Geronimo Gil? 

[Frobby]

From the career list:

Center Field

1.  Adam Jones 2008-18: 1613 games played, 32.5 rWAR, .279/.319/.459, 109 OPS+, 303 HR, 1251 RBI.   Five time all star, four time Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, finished 6^th 13^th and 14th MVP voting.  Leads the team in almost all cumulative stats this century.

2.  Corey Patterson, 2006-07, 2010: 357 games played, 7.2 rWAR, .272/.311/.412, 90 OPS+, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 103 SB.

Comment:  Big drop here from Jones to Patterson, which is fine considering Jones was the starter for 11 years.

====

With his 3.8 rWAR season, Cedric Mullins bumps Patterson off the no. 2 spot on this list.  Mullins’ career totals: 430 games played, 9.2 rWAR, .263/.328/.432, 109 OPS+, 53 HR, 150 RBI, 74 SB.

That one probably doesn’t surprise you, but this one might:

Left Field

1.  Trey Mancini, 2016-19: 462 games played, 7.4 rWAR, .276/.335/.412, 119 OPS+, 86 HR, 238 RBI.   Trey’s best season came playing mostly RF, but he has played more games in LF than anywhere else at this point.  He finished 3^rdfor Rookie of the Year playing mostly LF.

2.  B.J. Surhoff, 2000, 2003-05: 387 games played, 4.6 rWAR, .289/.335/.412, 96 OPS+, 31 HR, 182 RBI.  Another guy who played several positions, but LF more than anywhere else in this time period.

Comment: LF has been a constant sore thumb for the Orioles.   As best I can tell, nobody has played more than 258 games there this century, a testament to how weak and unstable it has been.   And neither Mancini nor Surhoff played the most games there this century.   Can you guess who did?

====

Austin Hays now supplants Surhoff at no. 2 on this list.  350 games played, 6.4 rWAR, .257/.309/.434, 104 OPS+, 47 HR, 161 RBI.

Arguably, I should be moving Mancini off this list because he’s no longer played more games in LF than anywhere else.  As an Oriole, he played 254 games at 1B, 195 in LF, 177 at DH, 99 in RF.   So maybe it’s Hays no. 1 in LF, Surhoff stays on at no. 2, Mancini replaces Conine as the no. 2 1B.  LF has been a very weak spot for the O’s over the last 23 years.

 

[Frobby]

I also think Felix Bautista and Cionel Perez both make it on to the single season relief pitcher list.   You can even argue for Lopez despite the fact that he wasn’t here for the last two months.   

[Frobby]

It's been three years since I started this thread, so it's in need of an update.   The list below is the list of the Orioles' best single-seasons of the 21st centruy.  I've listed two at each position, and no player can appear more than once.  I'll write another post updating the "cumulative" list for the 21st century shortly.   Changes from the OP list are in bold.  I've left in my original comments but have bolded them where they've been edited.

Catcher

1.  Matt Wieters, 2011: 5.2 rWAR, .262/.328/.450, 110 OPS+, 22 HR, 68 RBI.   Was an all star and won his first Gold Glove.

2.  Javy Lopez, 2004: 4.8 rWAR, .316/.370/.503, 127 OPS+, 23 HR, 86 RBI.  Better than Wieters offensively but nowhere near as good defensively.

Comment: I could have included Adley Rutschman's 5.4 rWAR season here, but I didn't feel that listing a 120-game season was appropriate, and I'm fairly confident Adley will end up at the top of this list in some future year.   Ramon Hernandez was very good in 2006 (4.2 rWAR).   You could also argue that Wieters’ best season was 2012 (4.1 rWAR but had 23 HR, 83 RBI and repeated as an all-star and Gold Glover).  

First Base

1.  Chris Davis, 2013: 7.1 rWAR, .286/.370/.634, 168 OPS+, 53 HR, 138 RBI.   Was an all-star, 3^rd in MVP voting, won the Silver Slugger at 1B, led the league in homers and RBI.

2.  Jeff Conine, 2001: 2.9 rWAR, .311/.386/.443, 123 OPS+, 14 HR, 97 RBI.   Obviously, a very distant second.

Comment: Davis’ 2015 season would have been second if he qualified.   And at least by rWAR, his 2016 season would have been 3^rd even though it was somewhat disappointing.  Not a lot at 1B beyond Davis.

Second Base

1.  Brian Roberts, 2005: 7.3 rWAR, .313/.387/.515, 139 OPS+, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 27 SB.   Was an all star and finished 18^th in MVP voting.   Could have racked up even higher numbers, but he got hurt in September.

2.  Jonathan Schoop, 2017: 6.5 rWAR, .293/.338/.503, 124 OPS+, 32 HR 105 RBI.

Comment:  Very easy choices here.   Roberts had some other very good seasons, but they didn’t threaten Schoop’s.

 Third Base

1.  Manny Machado, 2015: 7.5 rWAR, .286/.359/.502, 132 OPS+, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB.   Was an all star, won the Gold Glove, finished 4^th in the MVP voting.

2.  Melvin Mora, 2004: 5.6 rWAR, .340/.419/.562, 155 OPS+, 27 HR, 104 RBI, 11 SB.   Won the Silver Slugger and was 18^th in MVP voting.

Comment:  Gunnar Henderson played about equally at 3B and SS this year, so I decided to put him in the "utility" cateogry.  You could argue for Manny’s 2016 season (7.3rWAR), which featured more HR and RBI, a higher BA and OPS, but slightly lower OPS+ and lower defensive numbers.  You could also argue for his 2013 season (5.9 rWAR), possibly the best defensive season by any Oriole ever.

Shortstop

1.  Miguel Tejada, 2004: 7.4 rWAR, .311/.360/.534, 131 OPS+, 34 HR, 150 RBI.   Was an all-star, won the Silver Slugger, led the league in RBI while setting the single-season RBI record for the Orioles.

2.  J.J. Hardy, 2011: 4.1 rWAR, .269/.310/.492, 114 OPS+, 30 HR, 80 RBI.   Missed almost a month at the beginning of the season and excelled after that.

Comment: Tejada’s 2005-06 seasons probably outrank Hardy’s.   It’s kind of ironic that Hardy’s best year came while the Orioles were still bad and he got no recognition whatsoever on the awards front.

 Left Field

1.  Austin Hays, 2023: 2.6 fWAR, .275/.325/.444, 114 OPS+, 16 HR, 67 RBI.  All star selection.

2.  Nolan Reimold, 2009: 2.6 rWAR, .279/.365/.466, 116 OPS+, 14 HR, 45 RBI

Comment: By far the weakest position on the field for the Orioles.   I decided that either Hays' 2021 season (3.1 rWAR) or this one edged our Reimold, and pushed Luke Scott's 2008 season (also 2.6 rWAR) off the list. The only other candidate was B.J. Surhoff, who collected 2.6 rWAR in 2000 before being traded to the Braves at the deadline.

Center Field

1.  Cedric Mullins, 2021: 5.9 rWAR, .291/.360/.519, 137 OPS+, 30 HR, 59 RBI, 30 SB.   All-star selection.

2.  Adam Jones, 2013: 4.8 rWAR, .285/.318/.493, 118 OPS+, 33 HR, 108 RBI.   All star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, finished 13^th in MVP voting.

Comment: Cedric pushes Jones down to 2nd place and Patterson's 4.2 rWAR 2006 off the list.  You could argue for Jones’ 2014 season (4.8 rWAR) or 2012 (4.1 rWAR, 6^th in MVP voting) as well.   Believe it or not, Luis Matos also had a 4.0 rWAR season in 2003.

Right Field

1.  Nick Markakis, 2008: 7.4 rWAR, .306/.406/.491, 136 OPS+, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB.   No recognition for Nicky’s top-rated season.

2.  Trey Mancini, 2019, 3.9 rWAR, .291/.364/.535, 136 OPS+, 35 HR, 97 RBI.

Comment: Nick’s 2007 season was very strong (4.1 rWAR) and he had other solid seasons.   Mark Trumbo had a 40-HR season playing mostly RF in 2016 but it was worth only 2.1 rWAR due to his defense.

Designated Hitter

1.  Nelson Cruz, 2014: 4.5 rWAR, .271/.333/.525, 137 OPS+. 40 HR, 108 RBI.  All star, 7^th in MVP voting.

2.  Aubrey Huff, 2008: 4.1 rWAR, .304/.360/.552, 137 OPS+, 32 HR, 108 RBI.  16^th in MVP voting, Silver Slugger.

Comment:  No other serious candidates here.

Utility

1.   Gunnar Henderson, 2023: 6.3 rWAR, .255/.325/.489, 125 OPS+, 28 HR, 82 RBI.  Started 68 games at 3B, 64 at SS, 11 at DH.  Likely rookie of the year.

2.  Steve Pearce, 2014: 5.8 rWAR, .293/.373/.556, 157 OPS+, 21 HR, 49 RBI.  Started 47 games at 1B, 31 in LF, 8 at DH, 4 in RF and came in defensively in 13 other games.   Also pinch hit in 13 games.   A very underrated piece to that 2014 team.

Comment: I only listed one utility player previously, but that seemed to be the best place to put Gunnar for now.  There's a good chance that in some future year he bumps someone from the SS or 3B list.

So, Hays, Mullins and Gunnar all get added to the single season list, and a good argument could have been made for Adley too.  On to the cumulative list.

[Frobby]

Here is the updated cumulative 21st century list for position players.  References to games played refer to games at any position, not just the named spot.

Catcher

1.  Matt Wieters, 2009-16: 882 games, 18.2 rWAR, .256/.318/.421, 99 OPS+, 117 HR, 437 RBI.   Was a four-time all star and won two Gold Gloves.

2.  Adley Rustschman, 2022-23: 267 games, 9.5 rWAR, .268/.369/.439, 129 OPS+, 33 HR, 122 RBI.

Comment: Adley pushes Ramon Hernandez (7.3 rWAR in 383 games) off the list after only 1.75 seasons in the majors.  If he has two more healthy seasons, he may be pushing Matt Wieters down to no. 2.

First Base

1.  Chris Davis, 2011-20: 1151 games played, 12.2 rWAR, .230/.318/.459, 106 OPS+, 253 HR, 656 RBI.   One-time all star, had two great seasons and a couple of other decent ones. 

2.  Trey Mancini, 2016-22: 701 games played, 10.1 rWAR, .270/.334/.463, 116 OPS+, 117 HR, 350 RBI.J

Comment:  It’s amazing that Davis is easily the best 1B the O’s have had this century while simultaneously being the worst player on the team for several years in a row.   Mancini had been listed in LF previously, but by the end of his Orioles tenure he had played more games at 1B than anywhere else, so he moves here and bumps Jeff Conine off the list.

Second Base

1.  Brian Roberts, 2001-13: 1327 games played, 28.8 rWAR, .278/.349/.412, 102 OPS+, 92 HR, 528 RBI, 278 SB.   Was a two-time all star and finished 18^th in MVP voting in 2005.   His concussion problems and other injuries prevented him from having an even more impressive career.

2.  Jonathan Schoop, 2013-18: 635 games played, 15.2 rWAR, .261/.296/.450, 100 OPS+, 32 HR 105 RBI.

Comment:  Very easy choices here.  These two cover almost the entire period.

Third Base

1.  Manny Machado, 2012-18: 860 games played, 31.9 rWAR, .283/.335/.487, 121OPS+, 162 HR, 481 RBI.   Was a four time all star, won two Gold Gloves (one a Platinum Glove), finished 4^th, 5^th and 9th in the MVP voting.

2.  Melvin Mora, 2000-09: 1256 games played, 29.1 rWAR, .280/.335/.481, 109 OPS+, 158 HR, 662 RBI.   Was a two-time all star, won the Silver Slugger and was 18^th in MVP voting in 2004.

Comment:  I kind of forgot how good Melvin Mora was.    He’s pretty underappreciated IMO.

Shortstop

1.  Miguel Tejada, 2004-07, 2010: 716 games played 19.5 rWAR, .305/.354/.534, 119 OPS+, 109 HR, 468 RBI.   Was a three time all-star, won two Silver Slugger, finished 5^th, 15^th and 20^th in the MVP voting, and set the single-season RBI record for the Orioles.

2.  J.J. Hardy, 2011-17: 889 games played, 15.7 rWAR, .256/.305/.408, 107 HR, 385 RBI.   Won three Gold Gloves while anchoring an excellent defense during the O’s 2012-16 run.

Comment:  I was tempted to put Hardy above Tejada because he was so important to a winning team, but in the end I couldn’t ignore Miggy’s offense.

Left Field

1.  Austin Hays, 2017-23, 494 games played, 9.1 rWAR, .262/.314/.437,  107 OPS+, 63 HR, 228 RBI

2.  B.J. Surhoff, 2000, 2003-05: 387 games played, 4.6 rWAR, .289/.335/.412, 96 OPS+, 31 HR, 182 RBI.  Another guy who played several positions, but LF more than anywhere else in this time period.

Comment: As mentioned, Trey Mancini was listed here on my original list, but by the time he departed, he'd played more games at 1B, so he's been moved there.  Meanwhile, with 3 healthy seasons, Hays has now played more games in LF (290 starts, 321 games) than any other Oriole this century.

Center Field

1.  Adam Jones 2008-18: 1613 games played, 32.5 rWAR, .279/.319/.459, 109 OPS+, 303 HR, 1251 RBI.   Five time all star, four time Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, finished 6^th 13^th and 14th MVP voting.  Leads the team in almost all cumulative stats this century.

2. Cedric Mullins, 2018-23: 546 games played, 12.2 rWAR, .257/.323/.429, 108 OPS+, 68 HR, 224 RBI.

Comment:  Cedric pushes Corey Patterson off the list in the no. 2 spot.   

Right Field

1.  Nick Markakis, 2006-14: 1,365 games played, 26.0 rWAR, .290/.358/.435, 113 OPS+, 141 HR, 658 RBI.   The other haf of 2110 Eutaw Street that we enjoyed for 7 of his 9 years with the team.  Two Gold Gloves, finished 6^th for Rookie of the Year.

2.  Anthony Santander, 2017-23: 591 games played, 7.9 rWAR, .248/.307/.459, 109 OPS+, 111 HR, 333 RBI.

Comment:  Santander pushes Jay Gibbons (6.1 rWAR in 779 games) off the list, though you could  still argue for Gibbons based on higher HR and RBI totals as an Oriole.

Designated Hitter

1.  Luke Scott, 2008-11: 471 games played, 7.9 rWAR, .260/.342/.485, 118 OPS+, 84 HR, 236 RBI.   Played more DH than anywhere else, including during his best season.

2.  Nelson Cruz, 2014: 159 games played, 4.5 rWAR, .271/.333/.525, 137 OPS+. 40 HR, 108 RBI.  All star, 7^th in MVP voting.

Comment:  Yep, Cruz accumulated more rWAR in his one Oriole season than any other DH candidate besides Scott.    A pretty sad statement.

Utility

1.  Steve Pearce, 2012-16: 6.9 rWAR, .255/.337/.473, 120 OPS+, 46 HR, 122 RBI.  He played 1B, 2B, LF, RF and DH for us, and frequently pinch hit.

2.  Gunnar Henderon,, 2022-23: 184 games played, 7.2 rWAR, .256/.329/.481, 125 OPS+, 32 HR, 100 RBI.

I decided to list Gunnar second since he hasn't been here that long, and will probably move out of the utility category next year.   But it's going to be a while before he appears on the SS or 3B list, given the number of excellent years we got from Hardy and Mora, who hold the no. 2 spots there now.

So, Adley, Hays, Mullins, Santander and Gunnar all make the cumulative all-century list.  Pretty impressive.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Orioles All-21^st Century Pitching Staff – Single Season

Now an update to the single-season Orioles all-century pitcher list.   I lined it up as two staffs, each with 5 starters and 7 relievers.   As before, a pitcher can only make the list once.

First Team Rotation

 1.  Erik Bedard 2007: 13-5, 182.0 IP, 3.16 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 10.9 K/0, 3. 9 K/BB, 5.7 rWAR.

2.  Mike Mussina 2000: 11-15, 237.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 125 ERA+., 1.19 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.6 K/BB, 5.7 rWAR

3.  Kyle Bradish, 2023: 12-7, 168.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 146 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 4.9 rWAR

4.  John Means 2019: 12-11, 155.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB 4.8 rWAR

5.  Jeremy Guthrie 2010: 11-14, 209.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.16 WHIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 4.5 rWAR

 Comments: You can have a good debate about Bedard vs. Mussina as no. 1.   Bedard’s season was more spectacular, but it got cut short by injury so if you are giving marks for durability you can argue for Mussina.  Bradish, while matching Bedard's ERA+ and posting the lowest raw ERA of this century for an O's starter, comes in at no. 3. because his innings were more limited.   Means sneaks in at no. 4 despite not throwing enough innings to qualify.   Both Guthrie and Tillman had multiple good seasons and it was hard to pick which is best.   Tillman ended up getting pushed out of the 1st team rotation by Bradish's fine 2023 season.   It’s kind of a sad statement that of my top 5 choices, no pitcher won more than 13 games, and two had a losing season.   Just shows what a bad team we’ve had and how few truly great pitching seasons we’ve had in this century.

Second Team Rotation

6.  Chris Tillman 2013: 16-7, 206.1 IP, 3.71 ERA, 110 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.7 rWAR

7.  Rodrigo Lopez 2002: 15-9, 196.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 120 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.7 rWAR

8.  Kevin Gausman 2016: 9-12, 179.2 IP, 3.61 ERA, 119 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 3.9 rWAR

9.  Wei-Yin Chen 2015: 11-8, 191.1 IP, 3.34 ERA, 123 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 3.4 rWAR

10.  Sidney Ponson 2003: 14-6, 148.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 119 ERA+, 6.1 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.4 rWAR

Comments:  On the basis of ERA+, you could argue for any of these being better than Guthrie's season that I put in the top 5.   But I have a bias in favor of innings eaters.    Lopez had a couple of seasons worth considering.   Ponson’s 2003 is oft-forgotten – we traded him at the deadline in a deal that didn’t really pan out, but he was spectacular to that point.  Bruce Chen 2005 got pushed off the list when Bradish bumped Tillman down to second team.

Honorable mentions: Jose Mercedes 2000, Pat Hentgen 2003, Bruce Chen 2005, Miguel Gonzalez 2012, Jason Hammel 2012, Bud Norris 2014.

 

First Team Bullpen

 1.  Zach Britton 2016: 2-1, 47/47 saves, 67.0 IP, 0.54 ERA, 803 ERA+, 0.84 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 4.1 rWAR.

2.  Felix Bautista 2023: 8-2, 33/39 saves, 61.0 IP, 1.48 ERA, 280 ERA+, 0.92 WHIP, 16.2 K/9, 4.2 K/BB, 3.0 rWAR

3.  Jim Johnson 2012: 2-1, 51/54 saves, 68.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 170 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 2.4 rWAR

4.  B.J. Ryan 2004: 4-6, 3 saves, 87.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, 200 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.4 rWAR

5.  Darren O’Day 2015: 6-2, 6 saves, 65.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 272 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 5.9 K/BB, 2.7 rWAR

6.  Buddy Groom 2002: 3-2, 2 saves, 62.0 IP, 1.60 ERA, 270 ERA+, 0.90 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 2.8 rWAR.

7.  Brad Brach 2016: 10-4, 2 saves, 79.0 IP, 2.05 ERA, 210 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.7 WHIP, 2.4 rWAR

 Comments: I wrestled with whether to put Felix second or third, even though all his peripheral numbers are better than Jim Johnson's.  I put him second to avoid a riot here.  Both Johnson and BJ Ryan had one really excellent season as the closer and one as a set-up man.   In Johnson’s case I chose his 2012 closer season over his 2011 set-up year; in Ryan’s case I took his 2004 set-up season over his 2005 closer season.   Even though Johnson’s 2012 season doesn’t quite measure up by ERA+ or rWAR, I will never forget how clutch he was that season and that’s why I ranked it no. 3.   O’Day and Brach had multiple good seasons.   Groom was really a one-hit wonder, but it was a heckuva hit.   Saving the best for last, it still amazes me what Britton did in 2016.  803 ERA+!

Second Team Bullpen

8.  Cionel Perez 2022: 7-1, 1 save, 57.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, 278 ERA+, 1.16 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 2.7 rWAR

9.  Yennier Cano 2023: 1-4, 8 saves, 72.0 IP, 2.11 ERA, 196 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, 2.5 rWAR

10.  Mychal Givens 2017: 8-1, 0 saves, 78.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 158 ERA+, 1.04 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 2.3 rWAR

11.  Pedro Strop 2012: 5-2, 3 saves, 66.1 IP, 2.44 ERA, 173 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 2.4 rWAR.

12  Chris Ray 2006: 4-4, 33/38 saves, 66.0 IP, 2.73 ERA, 167 ERA+, 1.09 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 2.0 rWAR.

13.  Koji Uehara 2011: 1-1, 0 saves, 47.0 IP, 1.72 ERA, 246 ERA+, 0.70 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 7.8 K/BB, 1.9 rWAR

14.  Jorge Lopez, 2022: 4-6, 19/23 saves, 48.1 IP, 1.68 ERA, 234 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 1.9 rWAR

Comments: I pretty much went in straight rWAR order here.   Bautista, Perez, Cano and Lopez pushed Jorge Julio, George Sherrill, Tory Patton and Tommy Hunter off the list.  Koji or Jorge Lopez might have been first team picks if they hadn’t been dealt at the deadline, and Sherrill might have made this list if he hadn't been dealt.

Honorable mentions:  Jorge Julio 2002, Kerry Ligtenberg 2003, Jamie Walker 2007, George Sherrill 2008, Troy Patton 2012, Tommy Hunter 2014,  Richard Bleier 2017, Miguel Castro 2018

[Frobby]

Felix Bautista makes the first team bullpen after only two years in the majors.

First Team Bullpen

1.  Zach Britton, 30-22, 139 saves, 3.22 ERA, 516.2 IP, 130 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 10.9 rWAR – The stats above include Britton’s time as a starter.   As a reliever he had a 1.72 ERA for the O’s in 262 IP.   He was utterly dominant in 2014-16.

2.  Darren O’Day, 28-14, 19 saves, 2.40 ERA, 374.1 IP, 174 ERA+, 0.99 WHIP, 10.2 k/9, 2.5 k/bb, 11.3 rWAR – You can make a strong argument that O’Day deserves the top spot.  

3.  Brad Brach, 27-15, 32 saves, 2.99 ERA, 327.2 IP, 140 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 6.0 rWAR – I could have gone a lot of ways with this choice.  The 3-6 slots are really close IMO.    But Brach has the lowest ERA, best ERA+, and had a knack for picking up wins.

4.  Jim Johnson, 18-26, 122 saves, 3.11 ERA, 400.0 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 5.2 rWAR --  Johnson logged the most relief innings (397) of any pitcher this century.   He’s second to Britton in saves and logged 50+ saves twice.   He also had a couple of very good seasons as a setup man.  

5.  B.J. Ryan, 16-19, 3.54 ERA, 42 saves, 3.54 ERA, 379.1 IP, 127 ERA+, 1.31 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 4.6 K/BB – BJ was stellar his final two seasons for the Orioles, first as a setup man, then as a closer.  

6.  Mychal Givens, 20-18, 3.32 ERA, 20 saves, 3.41 ERA, 340.0 IP, 128 ERA+, 1.15 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 6.4 rWAR – Like I said, spots 3-6 were very close.   I put Givens at the low end of the group only because when Buck had Brach and Givens, he generally gave Brach the higher leverage spots.

7.  Felix Bautista, 12-6, 48 saves, 1.85 ERA, 126.2 IP, 217 ERA+, 0.92 WHIP, 14.1 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 5.6 rWAR -- Felix is obviously headed for a much higher spot on this list if he recovers well from his TJ surgery.  I have him this low only because he's pitched so many fewer innings than everyone else listed.

 

Second Team Bullpen

1.  Buddy Groom, 15-13, 18 saves, 3.91 ERA, 285.1 IP, 115 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 4.2 rWAR – Big drop off here, but every team needs a LOOGY, right?   And Groom is pretty high up on the IP list for O’s relievers this century.  

2.  Tommy Hunter, 21-20, 15 saves, 4.16 ERA, 407.0 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 3.2 rWAR – Hunter made 31 starts in 2011-12.    Purely as a reliever, he posted a 3.08 ERA in 222 IP.

3.  Chris Ray, 10-17, 49 saves, 4.11 ERA, 192.2 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 2.4 rWAR – Did OK until he developed elbow issues.

4.  Koji Uehara, 4-7, 13 saves, 3.03 ERA, 157.2 IP, 144 ERA+, 1.00 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 6.6 K/BB, 4.6 rWAR – Koji only threw 91 innings for us as a reliever, which is why I don’t have him higher.   As a reliever for us, he had a 2.27 ERA and was worth 3.2 rWAR.

5.  Miguel Castro, 7-13, 3 saves, 4.06 ERA, 241.1 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.37 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 3.5 rWAR – Pretty solid reliever who ate a lot of innings.

6.  Jorge Julio, 11-24, 83 saves, 4.20 ERA, 291.2 IP, 105 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 1.4 rWAR – He wasn’t very good, but he did rack up the third-most saves this century for any Orioles reliever.

7.  Troy Patton, 5-2, 0 saves, 3.26 ERA, 149.0 IP, 129 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.8 rWAR – Like I said, every bullpen has to have a LOOGY, right?   It was either Patton or Matusz.

Honorable mentions: George Sherrill, Brian Matusz, John Parrish, Rick Bauer.   Matusz and Parrish both did much better in the bullpen than as starters.   Bauer was mediocre but logged over 200 innings in our bullpen.

In another year we could see Cano and/or Perez on this list, with a good season.

[Frobby]

The First Team Rotation

The only change here is John Means' place on the list.  Despite having thrown far fewer innings than anyone on this list, he's already 6th in rWAR, so that's where I put him.

 1.  Erik Bedard, 40-34, 3.83 ERA, 658.0 IP, 118 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 12.8 rWAR – Not the most longevity, but he had the highest peak, and mustered a winning record despite pitching for terrible teams.

2.  Jeremy Guthrie, 47-65, 4.12 ERA, 983.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 2.1 K.BB, 16.1 rWAR – Guthrie has the highest rWAR of any O’s starting pitcher in the 21^st Century, and was 3^rd in IP.   He had three really fine seasons, but somehow he never seemed to come away with the W.

3.  Chris Tillman, 74-60, 4.57 ERA, 1145.0 IP, 91 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 8.9 rWAR – Tillman really had three careers with the Orioles: the getting his feet wet phase, the highly effective pitcher phase, and the pitching with a bum shoulder phase.  That middle phase coincided exactly hwith the O’s good five-year run.    In that stretch Tillman went 65-33, 108 ERA+, and was worth 12 rWAR.   That earns him the no. 3 slot despite his troubles before and after.   Most wins and IP of any O’s pitcher this century.

4.  Wei-Yin Chen, 48-32, 3.72 ERA, 706.2 IP, 110 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 9.4 rWAR – Dan Duquette played it exactly right with Chen, getting four very good, healthy years from him at a low cost and letting someone else pay huge dollars for his crummy years.

5.  Kevin Gausman, 39-51, 4.22 ERA, 763.2 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 10.2 rWAR – Kind of a Jeremy Guthrie light, he never seemed to win as many games as he should considering his other numbers.

The Second Team Rotation

6.  John Means, 21-26, 3.74 ERA, 3.81 IP, 122 ERA+, 1.06 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 9.8 rWAR -- was 10th on the May 2021 list, moves all the way to 6th.  It's kind of crazy, but he could be second among 21st century Orioles starters in career rWAR by the end of next year if he pitches well.   That's an indication of how weak our starting pitching has been over the last 24 years.

7.  Rodrigo Lopez, 60-58, 4.72 ERA, 912.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 9.3 rWAR – Lopez won 14+ games three times for the O’s, posting ERAs of 3.57 and 3.59 in two of those seasons.

8.  Sidney Ponson, 53-64, 4.84 ERA, 1030.1 IP, 93 ERA+, 5.6 K/9, 1.44 WHIP, 1.9 K/BB, 9.4 rWAR – Pitched the second-most innings of any Orioles pitcher this century.

9.  Miguel Gonzalez, 39-33, 3.82 ERA, 580.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 7.3 rWAR – It’s pretty tempting to put him higher on the list due to his good rate stats, but he wasn’t that durable so I left him in his rWAR slot.    As usual, not getting his due respect.

10.   Dylan Bundy, 38-45, 4.67 ERA, 614.1 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.33 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 7.2 rWAR – Such a shame that injuries took so much off his fastball.   He could have been so much higher on this list.