Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Philip]

42 minutes ago, LTO's said:

A few years ago CoC continually argued that the O's should give the Mesa brothers 6 million. Older brother has a sub .400 OPS in AA and is now considered a non prospect. Little brother surpassed him as a prospect coming into the year but has been terrible in low A with a sub .300 OBP and sub .600 OPS. 

Didn’t they sign with the Yankees?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that's still towards the bottom.  Yes they have progressed from dead last by a large margin to joining the rest of the bottom tier.  But that still has them losing ground compared to most teams. 

Yes I know scouting and grading these kids is pretty close to impossible but it's kind of a shame when getting two guys in the top 40 is the cause of celebration.  Two guys in the top 40 should be a worst case scenario.

I think we did OK last year.  This year we should be aiming for an above average class.   Whether that’s defined by how many of the top 30 you get, or other criteria is a bit beyond my competence to say.  

[Philip]

Reading some of these comments, it just seems logical to me that unless a particular prospect is absolutely sure fire World Series Hall of Fame level, he would want to play at the place where he is most likely to get the soonest opportunity, and that would be on the weakest team.

Not the worst run, mind you but the weakest.  Now that the Orioles are improving, I don’t know which is now the worst run team, Arizona? Colorado? Maybe Pittsburg? I dunno. But I wouldn’t want to be in their system because they appear to be clueless. On the other hand, who wants to be a prospect in the Yankees system when you’ve got 15 terrific guys in front of you on the depth chart?

And the guys can’t really judge the quality of the city environment, because no matter where they are in the United States will be in the United States and will therefore be a completely different environment. They aren’t going to say, “I don’t want to go to Seattle because it’s too rainy, or to Houston because it’s too hot.” They will be happy to go to the United States.

With that in mind, I think almost any moderate to better prospect would be happy to come to the Orioles.

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Two thoughts.

You say that next year "the name of the organization will have some traction" and the Orioles will have a bit of a track record." Maybe so. Those 16-year-old signees, if they succeed, would likely be four to six years away from MLB -- so they might help the Orioles as soon as 2026-28. Maybe one or two would be older and arrive sooner. And I question whether things will change much in a year. I assume, without knowing, two facts: (a) the teenaged superstars who are the highest ranked and paid international guys think their talent will get them to the major leagues regardless of the team they sign with, and (b) these guys and their advisors read the MLB standings. Notwithstanding improved traction or name recognition, I think the Orioles will be near the bottom of most of these guys' wish lists. Again assuming, I would expect the question for them, aside from the dollars, is not the players' and advisors' familiarity with the Orioles, but how a future with the persistently cellar-dwelling Orioles looks compared with other opportunities.

You say the Orioles have spent "massive amounts of capital . . . on facilities and infrastructure." Really? About how much have they spent? I don't doubt that it's a massive amount compared to what I have in the bank or to how much the team is willing to pay a shortstop. But the question is how what the Orioles are spending compares with other teams, and I don't know either. You seem to concede that the Orioles spend "a small amount less than others," but say that's OK because they are, or might be, spending their dollars more efficiently. Where does that come from? Why do you think the Orioles' current or planned international spending is "a small amount" less than what the Dodgers or NYYs or Red Sox or Cardinals or Angels or Mets, or anyone else, is spending? And why do you think that the Orioles are spending smarter than any other team, let alone most or all of them? Which ones do you think are spending recklessly?

When the Orioles hired Elias, I had some hope that he would be a creative, innovative leader whose moves would enable the Orioles to compete better with higher-revenue teams. He may be that, and may be doing great things that aren't visible, at least not to me. But more and more I worry that his plan is simply to replicate what the Astros did. I can only hope that he's better than that.

 

 

 

A very thoughtful post. I certainly do not know the numbers off the top of my head, but the improvements are well-documented by the media. Facilities in the DR were atrocious. The absolute worst, which is what one would expect when a team does not value that program. The cameras (high speed and otherwise), computer equipment and the other things that the new analysts needed. The list goes on and on, and none of that was there. They hired many more international scouts. I am sure that guys like Kobe Perez and Matt Blood are not cheap hires either.

The traction I am speaking of will not have effects from MLB success, no, not yet. But their ability to help players reach their goals will be evident in how the players they signed are improving. How many are in the FCL right now, and things like that. Players and their trainers (buscones) do talk a lot. They know what is moving in a good direction and what is not. I think they will see the opportunity to take their bonus money and the ability to compete in an organization in need of talented players.

I think Mike Elias is a little more Cardinals than Astros, if you know what I mean. Maybe a little less arrogant and a little more substance. 

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Dan would have been closer to this if ownership had allowed it.

As for Syd?  That was 20 years ago.  Every team is going to have miraculous improvement over what they were doing 20 years ago.

Dan literally forfeited premium draft picks for below replacement level players and traded future SP prospects for practically nothing. He had no interest in building any sort of talent pipleline. The issues with player development go beyond him obviously but he was still not blameless. Everyone thinks the Davis signing and leaving Britton in the bullpen were the turning points for this franchise but in my opinion, it was when he was about to bolt for Toronto and Pete made him stay. The Blue Jays went on to hire bright minds who have done way better than he would have, while we were left with a mediocre GM who had lost the trust of everyone (not saying that it was totally fair).  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Dan literally forfeited premium draft picks for below replacement level players and traded future SP prospects for practically nothing. He had no interest in building any sort of talent pipleline. The issues with player development go beyond him obviously but he was still not blameless. Everyone thinks the Davis signing and leaving Britton in the bullpen were the turning points for this franchise but in my opinion, it was when he was about to bolt for Toronto and Pete made him stay. The Blue Jays went on to hire bright minds who have done way better than he would have, while we were left with a mediocre GM who had lost the trust of everyone (not saying that it was totally fair).  

I was speaking more of having an actual International presence.  Although I do think a more enlightened owner would not have required bundling draft picks to poor contracts.

I do agreed that Dan was more concerned about the now but that is also what the manager and owner were interested in.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

29 minutes ago, Philip said:

Didn’t they sign with the Yankees?

They signed with the Marlins. 

https://marlinmaniac.com/2020/03/20/miami-marlins-the-development-of-victor-mesa-jr/

[Philip]

I have a question about high school kids who want to go to college. Is it possible to draft a player, and us obtain his rights, and let him go to college anyway? Going to college is incredibly valuable and if you go to a good program you get good training, and if you don’t go to college at the appropriate time it’s really hard to do it later.It seems that it would be valuable for the player to make that kind of arrangement.

[milbest77]

21 hours ago, LTO's said:

Dan literally forfeited premium draft picks for below replacement level players and traded future SP prospects for practically nothing. He had no interest in building any sort of talent pipleline. The issues with player development go beyond him obviously but he was still not blameless. Everyone thinks the Davis signing and leaving Britton in the bullpen were the turning points for this franchise but in my opinion, it was when he was about to bolt for Toronto and Pete made him stay. The Blue Jays went on to hire bright minds who have done way better than he would have, while we were left with a mediocre GM who had lost the trust of everyone (not saying that it was totally fair).  

I will die on the hill that signing JJ Hardy the day before the 2014 ALCS was the turning point. No one will agree with me, but I think it signaled to Cruz and Markakis that they weren’t going to get the offers they wanted from us to stay. Could it have caused dissection in the club house that led to a listless series? I think so, but again, no one will agree. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, milbest77 said:

I will die on the hill that signing JJ Hardy the day before the 2014 ALCS was the turning point. No one will agree with me, but I think it signaled to Cruz and Markakis that they weren’t going to get the offers they wanted from us to stay. Could it have caused dissection in the club house that led to a listless series? I think so, but again, no one will agree. 

They did offer Nick good money though.  And they just were never going to go 3+ years for Cruz which, in hindsight was wrong but more often than not, that decision will look great.  

[Moose Milligan]

21 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

They signed with the Marlins. 

https://marlinmaniac.com/2020/03/20/miami-marlins-the-development-of-victor-mesa-jr/

Don't answer Philip's questions that can easily be found with a google search.  Laziness shouldn't be rewarded, we're not here to carry his water.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They did offer Nick good money though.  And they just were never going to go 3+ years for Cruz which, in hindsight was wrong but more often than not, that decision will look great.  

And yet the gave big money to Trumbo, Davis, O'day, Cobb and of course offered that stupid extension to Hardy. The 4th year business is just an excuse. The combo of Peter and Dan were just terrible at identifying who to spend on. Giving big money to guys in their 30s is not something they rejected on principle. Quite the opposite.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LTO's said:

And yet the gave big money to Trumbo, Davis, O'day, Cobb and of course offered that stupid extension to Hardy. The 4th year business is just an excuse. The combo of Peter and Buck were just terrible at identifying who to spend on. Giving big money to guys in their 30s is not something they rejected on principle. Quite the opposite.  

Fixed that for you.  Buck had more pull than DD.

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They did offer Nick good money though.  And they just were never going to go 3+ years for Cruz which, in hindsight was wrong but more often than not, that decision will look great.  

IIRC, Nick wanted to be in Atlanta for family reasons.  The Orioles offer was comparable or a little more.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

IIRC, Nick wanted to be in Atlanta for family reasons.  The Orioles offer was comparable or a little more.

No, the Os lowered their offer after they discovered the neck issue.  Atlanta gave him the 4th year.