A different kind of Trade Deadline Strategy

[billw76]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or he could still be playing at the MVP level has been 3 of the last 4 years (top 3 MVP voting those years and well on his way to another 5+ WAR this year) and those guys could fizzle out or get hurt…or they just all play together and we are that much better.-

This is exactly why it wouldn't be smart to make this move now. Cleveland will want a ton for him with 2 years of control left.

The conversation to get him will start no lower than Hall, and will need multiple pieces on top of that, way too high of a price for a rebuilding team to pay.

This is a move you make in 2023 when we are ready to contend, not for a few extra wins now and name recognition on the ML roster.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, billw76 said:

This is exactly why it wouldn't be smart to make this move now. Cleveland will want a ton for him with 2 years of control left.

The conversation to get him will start no lower than Hall, and will need multiple pieces on top of that, way too high of a price for a rebuilding team to pay.

This is a move you make in 2023 when we are ready to contend, not for a few extra wins now and name recognition on the ML roster.

If you recognize that we need him in 2023, why not get him Now?

If your argument is that you don’t have him for long enough, that’s fine but that’s not what you are saying here.  
 

And name recognition has nothing to do with it.

[billw76]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And it’s justifiable.  Like I said, there would probably be other guys I would rather trade for.  I have been on the German Marquez train for about a year now.  It sounds like Colorado won’t trade him but that’s the type of guy I would over Ramirez if I’m dealing out better prospects.  Im just not going to be scared off by the idea that Ramirez could be gone in 2 years because I feel we should be a playoff contender in 2023.

Marquez would be a MUCH better move than Ramirez. He’s younger and a pitcher, which I think would benefit us a whole lot more.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Far better chance he does than nothing.  

Fine.  It's still a maybe and that's what I said.

[billw76]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

If you recognize that we need him in 2023, why not get him Now?

If your argument is that you don’t have him for long enough, that’s fine but that’s not what you are saying here.  
 

And name recognition has nothing to do with it.

I never said we need him in 2023, I said this is a move you make in 2023. If we aren't contending or close then I still wouldn't make the move then either.

Not having him long enough is definitely part of it as well. His contract is up in 23, and I probably wouldn't be too comfortable with giving him a big contract after that at 31. 

[Frobby]

If we want to acquire players to help us in 2022-23, I’d rather spend some cash on free agents than start trading away promising minor leaguers.   

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If you recognize that we need him in 2023, why not get him Now?

If your argument is that you don’t have him for long enough, that’s fine but that’s not what you are saying here.  
 

And name recognition has nothing to do with it.

Because we also need DL Hall and players like him. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

My feeling is that you try to create a pipeline feeding talent to the big team.   When that talent starts to come up then you decide what holes need to be filled and where your excess talent lies.   Not now.   You don't go for a guy like Ramirez unless you are going all in over the next two years which would mean trading off many of the chips and bloating the payroll again.    It doesn't mean you couldn't create a contending team for 2023 but it's still no slam dunk and you've traded a lot of capital for short term gains.

 

We don't know if D.L. Hall becomes a bust, a reliever, or a star.   Who knew Cedric Mullins would turn into what he has.   This isn't time to trade the chips.  Most of the chips could turn out to be nothing but Jose Ramirez turns into nothing in two years as well.

You'd also be paying for the back half of 2021 (probably weighted most heavily in any valuation model). Not sure why that would ever make sense for a team like the Os currently.

[waroriole]

Even if we assume that it’s a good idea to trade for Ramirez (it isn’t), why would the Indians take back DL Hall without seeing him return from injury? 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Even if we assume that it’s a good idea to trade for Ramirez (it isn’t), why would the Indians take back DL Hall without seeing him return from injury? 

They may…I have never said they would make the deal..just that Hall is the best prospect I would consider trading.

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Because we also need DL Hall and players like him. 

Except those players could easily fizzle out.

What we need are good players.  We don’t know if they are yet.

We know Ramirez is.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If we want to acquire players to help us in 2022-23, I’d rather spend some cash on free agents than start trading away promising minor leaguers.   

Agree. Hope we shop in a little higher price range this winter, meaning a signing for $3M to $4M rather than $1M and do it 3-4 times.

[Aristotelian]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except those players could easily fizzle out.

 

Which is also exactly why you don't trade prospects before you are anywhere close to contending. You seem to be certain that we are contending in '22 or '23 to the point that you are willing to give up prospects on the theory that the prospects are not guaranteed to succeed. Do you not see any issues with that logic?

Why not just wait a couple years, see where we're at, and then trade for (or sign) the next Jose Ramirez when we actually know that we are competitive and what holes we need to fill? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Which is also exactly why you don't trade prospects before you are anywhere close to contending. You seem to be certain that we are contending in '22 or '23 to the point that you are willing to give up prospects on the theory that the prospects are not guaranteed to succeed. Do you not see any issues with that logic?

Why not just wait a couple years, see where we're at, and then trade for (or sign) the next Jose Ramirez when we actually know that we are competitive and what holes we need to fill? 

Again, not all the prospects are meant for the ML team.  You also don't sit around and wait until they lose value.  I would bet there are 100s of names of prospects that have been suggested over the years on this site that have never materialized, whether it was Os prospects or another team.

Sometimes, you just have to strike while the iron is hot and use the assets for better players and guys who are more of a sure thing.

The idea that you just sit around for everyone to develop and that your team will have 26 home grown players is just wrong.  

 

And I never said anything about contending in 2022.  I think we should be a 500ish team next year and contending in 2023.  If that's not the case, Elias has failed.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, not all the prospects are meant for the ML team.  You also don't sit around and wait until they lose value.  I would bet there are 100s of names of prospects that have been suggested over the years on this site that have never materialized, whether it was Os prospects or another team.

Sometimes, you just have to strike while the iron is hot and use the assets for better players and guys who are more of a sure thing.

The idea that you just sit around for everyone to develop and that your team will have 26 home grown players is just wrong.  

 

And I never said anything about contending in 2022.  I think we should be a 500ish team next year and contending in 2023.  If that's not the case, Elias has failed.

You're right.  But no one said that.

 

You're second statement about not contending in 2023 is just wrong and shortsighted.   You like to make things simple.   It's not that simple.