Connolly article on pitching

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

But beyond the bad state of pitching right now, the biggest question is why? People in this thread have pointed to Lowther, A. Wells, Akin, Zimmermann, Kremer, Baumann, Smith and others as part of the solution, but most of them are the reason it's been such a terrible year. 

Elias needs to figure this out. He needs those guys who are dominating in AA to be good major leaguers. They don't need to be elite, but we should be able to fill out a solid rotation from, say, #'s 4-7, and have a very competitive bullpen.

It's not like Elias didn't have a plan to accomplish that, it's that his plan went up in flames. An unmitigated disaster. That's the real story and we kind of just have to hope that he can figure out how to make it work.

Exactly..it’s why I have said I feel other organizations could do more with what we have.

I think there is some kind of a disconnect Between what happens in the lower to the upper minors and to the majors.  No idea what that is but it’s obvious there is something.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Exactly..it’s why I have said I feel other organizations could do more with what we have.

I think there is some kind of a disconnect Between what happens in the lower to the upper minors and to the majors.  No idea what that is but it’s obvious there is something.

There was for us this year. That's for sure. My personal guess is they were over-reliant on spin rate, which is easier to achieve in the lower minors with the stickier ball and harder to get at AAA and in the majors with the slicker ball. Then MLB cracked down and a key success factor, and maybe their player acquisition strategy, just went poof.

But it really can't be just that, can it? There's the Buck style and the Elias style. What we want is a combination of the winning style of Buck with the smart style of Elias. What if these guys really only understand the data part but not the human part? Or maybe it's the protocols we followed during Covid that had our guys completely unprepared for some reason?

Just speculation. Hope they can work through this failure no matter the reason. They really need to take a long hard look in the mirror.

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Elias didn’t draft a pitcher this year until what round? He missed on two first round pitchers in Houston so has come to the conclusion, just pass on top level pitchers in the draft, particularly the first round. Doesn’t sound like decision making based on data, sounds like decision making based on fear. 

Either that or the data about drafting pitchers is really scary.

 

 

[UMDTerrapins]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly..it’s why I have said I feel other organizations could do more with what we have.

I think there is some kind of a disconnect Between what happens in the lower to the upper minors and to the majors.  No idea what that is but it’s obvious there is something.

Coaching, catching, and ballpark effect would seem to be top culprits. AR will improve one of those obviously. And the ballpark effect is a constant. Fair or not, it would seem a coaching change would be in order. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There was for us this year. That's for sure. My personal guess is they were over-reliant on spin rate, which is easier to achieve in the lower minors with the stickier ball and harder to get at AAA and in the majors with the slicker ball. Then MLB cracked down and a key success factor, and maybe their player acquisition strategy, just went poof.

But it really can't be just that, can it? There's the Buck style and the Elias style. What we want is a combination of the winning style of Buck with the smart style of Elias. What if these guys really only understand the data part but not the human part? Or maybe it's the protocols we followed during Covid that had our guys completely unprepared for some reason?

Just speculation. Hope they can work through this failure no matter the reason. They really need to take a long hard look in the mirror.

I don’t know what they value, outside of spin rate.

If I were to make a comparison to another sport, I would look at WR in the NFL.  Every combine, we hear about guys who are jumping up the boards because they run really fast, jump high, etc…

But to me, the guys to draft are the guys can run routes and catch the ball.  

For pitchers, it’s not just velocity and spin rate.  The #1 thing should be command.  I assume the Os are all in on command but do they know how to properly teach it and how to get the most out of their pitchers.

When I see a team like Tampa, their pitching seems to command the ball well.  Some times they have the measurables that jump off the page as well but their command and ability to throw all their pitches for strikes is huge.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

For pitchers, it’s not just velocity and spin rate.  The #1 thing should be command.  I assume the Os are all in on command but do they know how to properly teach it and how to get the most out of their pitchers.

And the guys we have who really command the ball seem to have taken a step back in that regard this year, for whatever reason. Command is probably the number one thing associated with this year's failure. Even Rom has been losing command lately.

But it was there in the past, so what happened? Are they taking a Driveline type of approach focusing on max effort/velocity and it's hurting command? No idea. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

And the guys we have who really command the ball seem to have taken a step back in that regard this year, for whatever reason. Command is probably the number one thing associated with this year's failure. Even Rom has been losing command lately.

But it was there in the past, so what happened? Are they taking a Driveline type of approach focusing on max effort/velocity and it's hurting command? No idea. 

Yea, this is the type of stuff I would love to hear people ask Elias but I doubt we get a straight answer.

But it is very obvious that command is a big problem With our pitching.  
 

[HowAboutThat]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

But beyond the bad state of pitching right now, the biggest question is why? People in this thread have pointed to Lowther, A. Wells, Akin, Zimmermann, Kremer, Baumann, Smith and others as part of the solution, but most of them are the reason it's been such a terrible year. 

Elias needs to figure this out. He needs those guys who are dominating in AA to be good major leaguers. They don't need to be elite, but we should be able to fill out a solid rotation from, say, #'s 4-7, and have a very competitive bullpen.

It's not like Elias didn't have a plan to accomplish that, it's that his plan went up in flames. An unmitigated disaster. That's the real story and we kind of just have to hope that he can figure out how to make it work.

1) it is very hard to make the jump from AAA to the Bigs. When people scream that this guy or that guy has dominated the Minors with 1500 OPS and no Ks at every stop, yet they can’t explain the awful big league stats, I just smile. So our promoted guys have just been the rule rather than the exception, although none except Akin has been given much of a chance, and a few have been injured.

2) None of the pitchers promoted was acquired by Elias except the FAs and T Wells, And several guys who haven’t appeared yet like Smith. A few guys like Greene and Mattson showed up, threw an inning or two and vanished, but they don’t count. It is at least arguable that those guys shouldn’t count against Elias because they were here when he arrived. 

3) Mike has a particular skill set in mind when he acquires guys: spin rate, velocity and whatever. It’s possible that his pitching coach is adept at developing those particular skill sets, but none others, which might help explain why Akin and Lowther et al hit the wall. It’s like the expert Cantonese specialist being assigned to teach Mandarin. Many similarities but a lot of significant differences that impede progress.

All of our guys have failed so far, though none of them has had a long enough audition(except maybe Akin. I’ve seen enough.)

For now, Mike should promote everyone and give everybody as many meaningful innings as possible. That means among other things, dumping Plutko two months ago instead of last week, and ignoring guys like Anderson. I’m sorry Greene is gone so soon, glad Wade and Knight are here, and hope to see more.

Ive said before and will repeat that if Lopez is a long term piece he should be piggybacked, which would give another arm 3+ innings, and as the season winds down, we need to find innings for the prospects.

[drjohnnyfeva]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know what they value, outside of spin rate.

If I were to make a comparison to another sport, I would look at WR in the NFL.  Every combine, we hear about guys who are jumping up the boards because they run really fast, jump high, etc…

But to me, the guys to draft are the guys can run routes and catch the ball.  

For pitchers, it’s not just velocity and spin rate.  The #1 thing should be command.  I assume the Os are all in on command but do they know how to properly teach it and how to get the most out of their pitchers.

When I see a team like Tampa, their pitching seems to command the ball well.  Some times they have the measurables that jump off the page as well but their command and ability to throw all their pitches for strikes is huge.

I agree!  This has been a pet peeve of mine for decades.  Speed and spin rate are valued over command and movement.  That is not acceptable.  But that's a league-wide thing and not just the O's.

Just a question, maybe stupid, but I'll throw it out there... Is there data that shows the time of progression to the majors of position players and pitchers.  If it takes a shorter time to develop that sort of "natural ability" of pitchers, could that be an explanation of why we've been drafting fewer of them in earlier rounds?  If it takes longer to develop position players and batters, the theory could be to draft them higher to field the team and then begin to concentrate on pitching as the window of contention begins to near.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Elias didn’t draft a pitcher this year until what round? He missed on two first round pitchers in Houston so has come to the conclusion, just pass on top level pitchers in the draft, particularly the first round. Doesn’t sound like decision making based on data, sounds like decision making based on fear. 

With Houston, he also picked pitchers in the first round in 2016 and 2017, after the Appel and Akin picks had bombed.  His final draft included pitchers in the 2nd, 5th, 6th and 8th rounds.  So, I wouldn’t draw too many inferences from the three drafts he’s done here.  

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

1) it is very hard to make the jump from AAA to the Bigs. When people scream that this guy or that guy has dominated the Minors with 1500 OPS and no Ks at every stop, yet they can’t explain the awful big league stats, I just smile. So our promoted guys have just been the rule rather than the exception, although none except Akin has been given much of a chance, and a few have been injured.

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but you can't even point much to AAA success this year. Guys have just had a terrible year, for whatever reason.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

With Houston, he also picked pitchers in the first round in 2016 and 2017, after the Appel and Akin picks had bombed.  His final draft included pitchers in the 2nd, 5th, 6th and 8th rounds.  So, I wouldn’t draw too many inferences from the three drafts he’s done here.  

The Aiken pick didn't really cost them much.

Appel, now that was a bomb.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Aren’t you also speculating that he is moving the organization in the right direction?

 

In some regard, I am taking Fangraph and Baseball America's rankings and running with them.   At the same time, I take those rankings with a grain of salt.  We all speculate.  I was just teasing Canofcorn because he speculates more than anyone and he is the one who said that to another poster.

Let's face it, some people will complain about the draft and the farm system.   When the draft and farm system are showing signs of success, then they will complain that the team sucks at the ML level and that when those players graduate that we won't supplement.    If we graduate those guys and then supplment then those same people will complain that we aren't making moves to put the team over the top.    Some people like to complain.   There has been plenty to complain about over the last 38 years with a few exceptions.   For much of that time we were dealing with a dysfunctional organization.   The two-headed GM.   Duquette with 2 hands tied behind his back.   Now, we have a functional organization.  How much money they will spend or not spend in the future, I have no idea.   But for now, I'm enjoying a functional organization (In my opinion it is functional).

[interloper]

People act like Mike Elias doesn't know the state of his own pitching. We didn't know what Akin, Kremer, Lowther etc would be until they got thrown into the AL East fire. It didn't go well. That's why Hyde keeps saying "we've got a long way to go". 

I don't really know what to say about Elias not drafting many pitchers. Obviously he's got a plan and that plan might simply be BPA according to their metrics. The position player cabinet isn't nearly as full as we think either so it's not a crime to draft those guys.

That said, I'm not ignorant enough to believe that the solution is 100% "trade for pitchers". I do think that will eventually be a strategy, but it's not everything. 

We'll see!

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Aiken pick didn't really cost them much.

Appel, now that was a bomb.

The Aiken pick worked out in the end, but I don’t think Plan A was to not sign their pick and then score big with the 1:2 comp pick they received the following year.