The Center Field Market, 2022

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins has 4 years of service time left.  He was worth 5.7 bWAR and 5.3 fWAR (whichever site you want to use) this year.

He just turned 27.  We have him through age 30.

if I were to set his WAR at 14 for the next 4 years, are you taking the over or under?

Under.  From 2016-19, only 12 outfielders had 14 fWAR.   I don’t see Mullins at that level.   If he was at 10+ he’d still be in the top 21 in that group.  (I used 2016-19 to avoid the partial 2020 season.   If you made it 11.5 for 2017-21 it would still be only 12 names.)

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Under.  From 2016-19, only 12 outfielders had 14 fWAR.   I don’t see Mullins at that level.   If he was at 10+ he’d still be in the top 21 in that group.  (I used 2016-19 to avoid the partial 2020 season.   If you made it 11.5 for 2017-21 it would still be only 12 names.)

Yea, I tend to think something in the 9-12 range is realistic.

The thing is, you would expect that most of that comes in the next 2 seasons, one of which we won’t be contenders and another one where it’s up in the air.

In 2024, do you want to pay him good money to likely be playing a below average CF or a CO spot where he has no arm?  I think the answer to that is no…thus why trading him now makes sense if teams are valuing him as I mentioned.  If not, you hope for another good year in 2022 and trade him in July or after the season.