2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You don't get to where Elias has in life and not have a huge ego and believe you are the smartest guy in the room.

That's not a slight on him.  Its expected.  

People who think they are the smartest guy in the room usually don't take much advice from others.   It seems to me that Elias relies pretty heavily on Sig and respects the opinions of others but, then again, I don't know him at all.   I think he realizes this is not an exact science and all you can do is gather up all of the information you can and make the best decision based on that information.    They have a process for prioritizing the information they have and what is most important or what things are more important and what things are less important.

There is a big difference between confidence and arrogance.  I don't personally get the feeling that Elias is arrogant.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

People who think they are the smartest guy in the room usually don't take much advice from others.   It seems to me that Elias relies pretty heavily on Sig and respects the opinions of others but, then again, I don't know him at all.   I think he realizes this is not an exact science and all you can do is gather up all of the information you can and make the best decision based on that information.    They have a process for prioritizing the information they have and what is most important or what things are more important and what things are less important.

There is a big difference between confidence and arrogance.  I don't personally get the feeling that Elias is arrogant.   

He’s 100% arrogant but again, I don’t find that to be an issue.  He should be arrogant.  He’s a smart guy holding one of the rarest jobs in the world and he’s good at it.   
 

I have heard some things about him and I don’t think he is some humble guy.  Again, I don’t find issue with it though.  I think most, if not all, GMs are like that.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s 100% arrogant but again, I don’t find that to be an issue.  He should be arrogant.  He’s a smart guy holding one of the rarest jobs in the world and he’s good at it.   
 

I have heard some things about him and I don’t think he is some humble guy.  Again, I don’t find issue with it though.  I think most, if not all, GMs are like that.  

Are you ever 50% sure about anything?

[seak05]

47 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

He’s got the biggest upside they say but most question marks. I’d be shocked as hell if Elias picks him. Like I said, I’d be happy with Jones, Holiday, Green, Parada or Lee but really think it should be Jones. I would not complain about Holiday. It is just aggravating you have to calibrate your expectations for Elias’ “strategy”. Just arrogance to me. He likely thinks he is smarter than everyone else. 

This is literally true of every gm (and basically anyone ever making decisions). We all have preferences and biases, even the “media scouts” who you seem to believe in. Pittsburgh prefers college players, Cleveland - players who are young for their grade etc 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sometimes guys don’t pan out, for various reasons.

But if Elias takes Jones and Jones flames out, anyone bashing Elias is a moron.  
 

Now, if there are things about Jones that we don’t know…say he has an injury that could cause long term concerns or something like that and Elias takes him anyway and that issue comes to fruition than Elias deserves the blame.

But outside of that, it’s idiotic to bash Elias for taking the consensus best player.

The “consensus” here seems weak.  I’d say a plurality of the punditry like Jones the best, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a majority.  It’s a little hard to tell because sometimes the write ups are about who they think will be taken first, as opposed to who is the BPA.

What is clear, I think, is that some posters will bash Elias if he doesn’t take Jones, long before anyone knows if it was the right move or not.   

[ShoelesJoe]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, if there are things about Jones that we don’t know…

This is my point. The sheer tonnage of “things about Jones that we don’t know” would sink an aircraft carrier. But given Elias’ resources only a fool would imagine our readings of internet pundits provides us with anything like the data that he has at his disposal. There’s probably a lot of things about Jones that Elias doesn’t know, but he damn sure knows more than Keith Law, or anybody here. And if you think different then you’re delusional. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

This is my point. The sheer tonnage of “things about Jones that we don’t know” would sink an aircraft carrier. But given Elias’ resources only a fool would imagine our readings of internet pundits provides us with anything like the data that he has at his disposal. There’s probably a lot of things about Jones that Elias doesn’t know, but he damn sure knows more than Keith Law, or anybody here. And if you think different then you’re delusional. 

You can know more but still make the wrong choice.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can know more but still make the wrong choice.

Or you could know just a little and think you know 100% what the right choice is.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

6 hours ago, seak05 said:

This is literally true of every gm (and basically anyone ever making decisions). We all have preferences and biases, even the “media scouts” who you seem to believe in. Pittsburgh prefers college players, Cleveland - players who are young for their grade etc 

So you think the Os weren’t employing an underslot strategy and you think Elias thought Elias believed Kerjstad and Cowser were that high on their boards? If so, you are wrong.

[seak05]

38 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

So you think the Os weren’t employing an underslot strategy and you think Elias thought Elias believed Kerjstad and Cowser were that high on their boards? If so, you are wrong.

You said you were annoyed because you have to calibrate your expectations to Elias' strategy, I said regardless of who was making the decision, you'd have to calibrate expectations to how the individual making decisions does strategy. That's not unique to Elias/Orioles. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

So you think the Os weren’t employing an underslot strategy and you think Elias thought Elias believed Kerjstad and Cowser were that high on their boards? If so, you are wrong.

If you think the Orioles decide to employ an underslot strategy regardless of the talent at the top of the draft and regardless of the way their board is, then you're wrong.

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you think the Orioles decide to employ an underslot strategy regardless of the talent at the top of the draft and regardless of the way their board is, then you're wrong.

 

Subjective though. I hope you are right.  We will see.

[Tryptamine]

As an outsider, If I'm the GM I can't imagine taking anyone other than Holliday or Jones at 1.1.  Parada is out because I don't take catchers that high unless they're generational talents. Termarr is out because even if his bat is 1.1 worthy, he's young and already profiling as a 2B. Green has amazing upside, but the risk is also far too extreme to take at 1.1. Lee is a really safe bet to be a productive major leaguer but I think his upside lacks in comparison to all the others and Collier doesn't have enough track record for me to take. Berry is just a super vanilla pick.  The only scenario I could see underslotting at 1.1 being an option would be if you could snag someone like Lee/Johnson with a significant discount and use it to make a predraft agreement with someone like Lesko and have Lesko throw out the usual "don't draft me, I'm going back to school" stuff that players do to direct themselves to certain teams. 

 

On a side note, I'm really really hoping one of Johnson or Collier is there for the Cubs at 1.7. 

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Termarr is out because even if his bat is 1.1 worthy, he's young and already profiling as a 2B. 

I just will never understand this argument.  Finding a great hitting 2B is really hard.  The average 2B this year has a .651 OPS.  If you believe deeply in Termarr’s bat, the fact that he’s destined for 2B shouldn’t be a big impediment.   And, he’s expected to be a plus defender at 2B, not just some hack.

[ShoelesJoe]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just will never understand this argument.  Finding a great hitting 2B is really hard.  The average 2B this year has a .651 OPS.  If you believe deeply in Termarr’s bat, the fact that he’s destined for 2B shouldn’t be a big impediment.   And, he’s expected to be a plus defender at 2B, not just some hack.

Ya, I don't get it either. If you think he's got a one in four chance of growing into Alomar / Pedroia and a one in twenty chance of being Joe Morgan then you have to take that very seriously. There's a reason the teams those guys were on won a &%$# load of ballgames.