2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[geschinger]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not suggesting he is.

But folks, even smart folks, can get caught in certain patterns of thought.

This is definitely possible, but not sure the evidence is there yet to support he overly enamoured with the underslot approach.  Maybe if he does it again this year.

He's done BPA once and underslot twice in Baltimore.  The track record of the Astros when he was there was not afraid to go underslot (Correa) but mostly it was BPA. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, geschinger said:

You are tyring to have it both ways.   They saved 400k on that 12k signing but the main reason they got so much talent into their organization is they took the approach which you thought is so poor.  They did underslot/overslot with the Davis pick.  The money was not there to go overslot with those three other first round talents had they not gone underslot on Davis.  It isn't saving the 400k on the 12k pick that made that possible, it was the underslot/overslot approach with the #1 pick that did.

Not necessarily.  There are still ways they could have spent more earlier And still had them.  My point was that you can spend a lot early and just punt several other picks, picks which aren’t likely to end up being good anyway, so why pay 500k for guys that you can get for 50k and likely get the same long term outlook.

That said, I’m not even saying I want that.  I want the BPa regardless of what they get paid.  Drafting first is huge and not something to be taken lightly.

If that means I miss out on someone that drops to the third or 4th round, im perfectly fine with that.

Most drafts you are lucky to get more than 1 true impact player, if you even get one.  Im going big on as much as I can and not worrying about the rest.  

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/1/2022 at 10:09 PM, Sports Guy said:

Not necessarily.  There are still ways they could have spent more earlier And still had them.  My point was that you can spend a lot early and just punt several other picks, picks which aren’t likely to end up being good anyway, so why pay 500k for guys that you can get for 50k and likely get the same long term outlook.

That said, I’m not even saying I want that.  I want the BPa regardless of what they get paid.  Drafting first is huge and not something to be taken lightly.

If that means I miss out on someone that drops to the third or 4th round, im perfectly fine with that.

Most drafts you are lucky to get more than 1 true impact player, if you even get one.  Im going big on as much as I can and not worrying about the rest.  

I agree with this strategy.  You can patent it as the Sports Guy (TM) underslot strategy.  Go 500k or so under the 1st pick (#1 pick this year), go overslot on the next 3 or 4 picks and then go underslot the next 3 or 4 picks after that (Senior signs, etc, guys that would be happy to sign for 50k or so).  You can still go 5% over your pool ($800k) this year.  4th, 5th and 6th round picks have slot value of around $1.3 mill.  Sign 4th, 5th and 6th round picks for about $200k.  Total money extra money available to go overslot with comp A, 2nd round, Comp B and 3rd round is $500k(#1 pick) + $1.1 mill (round 4-6),  + $800k (5%) = $2.4 mill.  Tell me this strategy wouldn't work just as good as the Elias underslot strategy and you still get the BPA at #1.

[Sports Guy]

Does anywhere keep track of players in the majors by round?  
 

For example, how many players in MLB were drafted in the 5th round?  
 

Does baseball reference have a way of doing that?

[RZNJ]

Baseball America had a good article about whether the draft is a crapshoot.  By individual draft position the answer is kind of yes. But if you look at it from pics 1-5,10-20, and so on, it's not.  

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

“The Orioles march to the best of their own drum. They are weird”

sounds

 

https://youtu.be/0vRiION-sQE

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

48 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

“The Orioles march to the best of their own drum. They are weird”

sounds

 

https://youtu.be/0vRiION-sQE

Does anyone know who Eric of Birdland is? Sounds like we need to ask for his input.

[Sports Guy]

BA apparently has them taking Jones in their latest mock.

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

BA apparently has them taking Jones in their latest mock.

Right, but just like everyone else, they pretty much have no reason for doing it other than he's the #1 guy on their board and they have no idea which way the Orioles are leaning.

[CharmCityHokie]

On 7/3/2022 at 9:48 AM, Sports Guy said:

Does anywhere keep track of players in the majors by round?  
 

For example, how many players in MLB were drafted in the 5th round?  
 

Does baseball reference have a way of doing that?

EDIT: I reread what you were asking and I provided how to search by Pick, not sure how to see by Round, sorry about that!

 

You can go on BBRef, search by pick, and then sort by WAR and see how many players accumulated any value of WAR which would indicate they played at some point in the Majors. Here is an example for all number5 picks:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=5&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, CharmCityHokie said:

You can go on BBRef, search by round, and then sort by WAR and see how many players accumulated any value of WAR which would indicate they played at some point in the Majors. Here is an example for all Round 5 picks:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=5&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

To be clear, that is all no. 5 overall picks, not 5th round picks.  You can look at the entire 5th round for any year on BB-ref, but there’s no way to look at all 5th round picks for all rounds at once.  

[CharmCityHokie]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, that is all no. 5 overall picks, not 5th round picks.  You can look at the entire 5th round for any year on BB-ref, but there’s no way to look at all 5th round picks for all rounds at once.  

You are correct, my brain didn't commute the words with what I thought I knew how to do at first! I edited my comment to reflect that. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

“There are 7 tier 1 prospects in this draft”

Good listen.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/locked-on-mlb-prospects/id1525225214?i=1000568849821

[LookinUp]

25 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

“There are 7 tier 1 prospects in this draft”

Good listen.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/locked-on-mlb-prospects/id1525225214?i=1000568849821

Kinda interesting. One opinion of interest is that because the O's have the largest bonus pool, they may not even need to go under slot at #1.

It's been mentioned other places, but if this isn't a draft with a ton of depth that's another reason to no go under slot at #1. Then there's the opportunity to select under slots for several rounds as a way to save money.

It really seems to me like it's a three horse race between Jones, Holliday and Green.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Kinda interesting. One opinion of interest is that because the O's have the largest bonus pool, they may not even need to go under slot at #1.

It's been mentioned other places, but if this isn't a draft with a ton of depth that's another reason to no go under slot at #1. Then there's the opportunity to select under slots for several rounds as a way to save money.

It really seems to me like it's a three horse race between Jones, Holliday and Green.

They had the largest pool in 2020 and still felt a need to go under slot at #2.