Target: Under 800 Runs Allowed

[Frobby]

Last year, the O’s allowed 956 runs, worst in the AL by 122 runs.   If we want to see a dramatic improvement in the team’s W-L record, there’s the low hanging fruit.   

In 2020, the team allowed only 4.90 runs per game, a 794-run pace over 162 games.   I think that should be the goal for 2022 — under 800 runs allowed.   

A good bit of that needs to come from internal improvement.  Guys who I hope can do way better include Akin, Kremer, Wells, Lowther, Baumann, Lopez, Fry and Scott.   Together, that group allowed 334 runs in 454 innings.   To me, in a successful 2022 they should be able to throw more like 700 innings and yet not allow many more than 350 runs.   I think a lot of the team’s success or failure relates to whether that group improves.   

Second, I think we need two vets to fill rotation spots more ably than Harvey and Lopez did last year.   We ought to be able to find two guys who can keep their ERAs down in the 5ish range rather than over 6.    Spend a few million to do it, please.   

Finally, we hopefully get 100+ innings from Grayson Rodriguez and some more innings from Means and Zimmermann.  Less innings from guys like Watkins.

Things would have to go very well for the O’s to allow under 800 runs next year, but I think it’s a realistic objective.   



 

[Aristotelian]

Realistic target kind of depends on who we bring in for the rotation. Big difference if it's another Matt Harvey type vs a Stroman type. Hard to do worse than last year. 

I think one veteran could be enough. We will want to give Grayson a lengthy audition fairly soon as swell as possibly Hall. We've already got Means and Zimmerman penciled in, plus I think Akin showed enough down the stretch that he should have a spot to lose as long as he comes to spring training in shape. Baumann and Bradish should get their chances as well. That's five already. On top of those we still shouldn't give up on Lowther, Kremer, and Wells.

I really don't want another Lopez/Harvey type just eating innings and getting shelled every time just so we can avoid promoting guys who aren't ready. And I don't think it's realistic to get more than one Stroman/Desclafini type (and even that is a stretch). 

Syndergaard off the board at 1/$21M. 

[LA2]

Shaving a whole run off of Runs/Game is a lot. I hope it happens, but I wonder whether another helpful factor besides pitching can be improvements in fielding. Although the Orioles had the third lowest number of errors in the league and tied for second with Oakland in fielding percentage, their coverage of the field was very poor and we turned a huge 34% less double plays (101) than the AL-leading Royals (152).

Going position by position, where can we expect improvement? is a question far from being answerable at this point.

[HowAboutThat]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Last year, the O’s allowed 956 runs, worst in the AL by 122 runs.   If we want to see a dramatic improvement in the team’s W-L record, there’s the low hanging fruit.   

In 2020, the team allowed only 4.90 runs per game, a 794-run pace over 162 games.   I think that should be the goal for 2022 — under 800 runs allowed.   

A good bit of that needs to come from internal improvement.  Guys who I hope can do way better include Akin, Kremer, Wells, Lowther, Baumann, Lopez, Fry and Scott.   Together, that group allowed 334 runs in 454 innings.   To me, in a successful 2022 they should be able to throw more like 700 innings and yet not allow many more than 350 runs.   I think a lot of the team’s success or failure relates to whether that group improves.   

Second, I think we need two vets to fill rotation spots more ably than Harvey and Lopez did last year.   We ought to be able to find two guys who can keep their ERAs down in the 5ish range rather than over 6.    Spend a few million to do it, please.   

Finally, we hopefully get 100+ innings from Grayson Rodriguez and some more innings from Means and Zimmermann.  Less innings from guys like Watkins.

Things would have to go very well for the O’s to allow under 800 runs next year, but I think it’s a realistic objective.   



 

Been thinking about this. Strongly feel that regarding FA pitchers, get good or get nobody. No more Nate Karns/King Felix/Matt Harvey-types.  
Also strongly feel that better defense will help with runs allowed. At Fangraphs, our defense was surprisingly 13th overall.  I was trying to find unearned runs allowed at both BBR and Fangraphs and couldn’t. However, the difference between our unearned runs allowed and league average is probably meaningful enough that a better defense will help a significant decrease in RA.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Philip said:

Been thinking about this. Strongly feel that regarding FA pitchers, get good or get nobody. No more Nate Karns/King Felix/Matt Harvey-types.  
Also strongly feel that better defense will help with runs allowed. At Fangraphs, our defense was surprisingly 13th overall.  I was trying to find unearned runs allowed at both BBR and Fangraphs and couldn’t. However, the difference between our unearned runs allowed and league average is probably meaningful enough that a better defense will help a significant decrease in RA.

Fangraphs’ defensive measures did not jibe with other advanced metrics:

Rtot -46 (28th of 30)

Rdrs -30 (24th of 30)

OAA -34 (don’t know where this ranks, but obviously far below average)

We actually did well in unearned runs, but that doesn’t tell you anything much since it doesn’t account for range, turning DP’s, etc.

 

[HowAboutThat]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs’ defensive measures did not jibe with other advanced metrics:

Rtot -46 (28th of 30)

Rdrs -30 (24th of 30)

OAA -34 (don’t know where this ranks, but obviously far below average)

We actually did well in unearned runs, but that doesn’t tell you anything much since it doesn’t account for range, turning DP’s, etc.

 

Well, I wanted to defend my contention that a better defense would go a very long way towards decreasing our unearned runs, but it is also true that a better defense would go a longer way towards decreasing earned runs. It slipped my mind that it is possible to have a very bad defense without getting up a lot of unearned runs. 
i think we will be considerably better in ‘22, although, TBH, I also thought we’d be considerably better in ‘21

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, I wanted to defend my contention that a better defense would go a very long way towards decreasing our unearned runs, but it is also true that a better defense would go a longer way towards decreasing earned runs. It slipped my mind that it is possible to have a very bad defense without getting up a lot of unearned runs. 
i think we will be considerably better in ‘22, although, TBH, I also thought we’d be considerably better in ‘21

If Gutierrez plays regularly, our 3B defense will be way better than last year.   Of course, our offense may suffer unless that spurt he had towards the end of the year was a sign of actual improvement rather than just a 2-3 week hot streak.   

Another big factor is whether Santander is at full speed.   He was hampered with injuries all year and went from being a Gold Glove nominee to being a subpar defender.    

Then, of course, there’s the upgrade we are hoping for from Rutschman.   

I think 2B/SS will continue to be shaky but maybe with more continuity there we can be more consistent and improve our rather terrible DP output.   

Needless to say, offseason moves could change the picture one way or another.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If Gutierrez plays regularly, our 3B defense will be way better than last year.   Of course, our offense may suffer unless that spurt he had towards the end of the year was a sign of actual improvement rather than just a 2-3 week hot streak.   

Another big factor is whether Santander is at full speed.   He was hampered with injuries all year and went from being a Gold Glove nominee to being a subpar defender.    

Then, of course, there’s the upgrade we are hoping for from Rutschman.   

I think 2B/SS will continue to be shaky but maybe with more continuity there we can be more consistent and improve our rather terrible DP output.   

Needless to say, offseason moves could change the picture one way or another.   

But defense at catcher is going to take a huge hit with Severino's innings being cut into when Adley gets promoted.

[Sports Guy]

The thought of Gutierrez playing everyday is just awful.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The thought of Gutierrez playing everyday is just awful.

Depends how he hits.  In the minors he’s been a .741 OPS hitter.   So, despite his .663 OPS this year for us and .615 overall in 386 career PA, it’s not outlandish to think he could be a .700ish guy going forward.   If he did that, he’d probably be a 1.0 - 1.5 WAR guy due to his above average defense.   I’m not saying I’d like that to be Plan A, just saying it wouldn’t be a shocking outcome from my perspective.  I’d be happy if they come up with a better alternative.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends how he hits.  In the minors he’s been a .741 OPS hitter.   So, despite his .663 OPS this year for us and .615 overall in 386 career PA, it’s not outlandish to think he could be a .700ish guy going forward.   If he did that, he’d probably be a 1.0 - 1.5 WAR guy due to his above average defense.   I’m not saying I’d like that to be Plan A, just saying it wouldn’t be a shocking outcome from my perspective.  I’d be happy if they come up with a better alternative.   

If Gutierrez is able to hit close to the .766 OPS he posted the last month of the season in 101 plate appearances then he could be a legit option at 3B. That is until a better player comes along.

Gutierrez has the glove to play 3B and the Orioles have done worse at 3B with players who can’t field and can’t hit. You at least get one side of the equation with Gutierrez. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Depends how he hits.  In the minors he’s been a .741 OPS hitter.   So, despite his .663 OPS this year for us and .615 overall in 386 career PA, it’s not outlandish to think he could be a .700ish guy going forward.   If he did that, he’d probably be a 1.0 - 1.5 WAR guy due to his above average defense.   I’m not saying I’d like that to be Plan A, just saying it wouldn’t be a shocking outcome from my perspective.  I’d be happy if they come up with a better alternative.   

Wow..a 1.5 WAR upside..exciting!

[HowAboutThat]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wow..a 1.5 WAR upside..exciting!

Do you prefer Franco or Ruiz? Or Nunez, who totaled.8 fwar in two seasons with us?

One side of the equation is just fine for now, and blazing defense is a welcome thing. And Urias will be fine at 2B. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wow..a 1.5 WAR upside..exciting!

Compared to last year, I’d take it.  Nobody’s claiming he’s a long term solution.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Do you prefer Franco or Ruiz? Or Nunez, who totaled.8 fwar in two seasons with us?

One side of the equation is just fine for now, and blazing defense is a welcome thing. And Urias will be fine at 2B. 

No, I prefer an option that actually matters and for the team to give a sh!t about the product on the field instead of lying and fooling the fan base.