Baseballtradevalues.com: Rutschman worth $83 mm in trade value

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It would serve the team right to lose a year of Adley because they kept him down for service time reasons.

 

It'd be kinda hilarious. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It'd be kinda hilarious. 

Kind of like losing the first pick in the 2022 draft.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

It’s one of those posts where you don’t even need to look to know who wrote it.  

Just look for the whip marks on the dead horse lying by the side of the road.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Just look for the whip marks on the dead horse lying by the side of the road.

My comments are almost as tiresome as everyone's comments on my comments. 

Thankfully my comments on your comments about my comments are pithy and interesting.

[Nite]

5 hours ago, now said:

Interesting observations from the graph:

- Biggest jumps at 25/26, and 23/24. The younger jump makes sense, breaking in. But why 25/26?
- Biggest drops at 29/30, 31/32, and 34/35. Is the 29/30 drop psychological?

The 29-30 drop can be attributed to the 25/26 jump imo. Some guys hit their physical peak early, but regress first as well. 

Also not related would be the mental. Most of these guys get their big payday here and probably slack year one as their their life has changed. 

[Just Regular]

Rangers ideas looking at their numbers:

Jung - $35mm and Leiter - $30mm match their Mullins - $66mm, though I don't believe we could get both.

Winn - $21mm and Foscue - $16mm match their Means - $37mm

Poking around their site, this link has anything its readership has thought up for the Orioles.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=500

At first glance, several of the Marlins guesses include Orioles asks of SS Isaiah Watson instead of all pitching.

 

[Tryptamine]

I truly truly hate that website, not because it tries to value players, but because so many people try to use it to justify trades that just have zero chance in the real world, but they insist it does because the numbers are similar.  This is not directed at the poster above, it's just something I've seen dozens of times on various sites and it's always suggesting heavily lopsided deals.

[DrungoHazewood]

21 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't think you can go wrong either way. Looks like the typical peak age is 29 so either way you've got their peak year in the window. https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/what-age-do-baseball-players-peak/#:~:text=The most common ages (frequencies,at young and old ages.

The median peak age is 27 and it always has been.  Even in the 1990-2005 era it didn't move much.  There's a fairly shallow curve between, say, 25-31 or so, but the typical peak is at 27.

The study and the graph quoted above has a few issues:

1. It's based on wOBA, so doesn't include defense which peaks earlier than offense.

2. It's just based on the offensive performances of long-career players.  A more comprehensive study would include all players and properly account for attrition (i.e. you could easily conclude that 35-year-olds were the best players to acquire if you fail to account for the fact that 90+% of 35-year-olds are out of the majors and the dataset, and the ones left were usually very, very good.)

It also doesn't address pitchers.  They peak at 27, too, but have a much noisier career value arc.

[Just Regular]

I agree with Tryptamine you can build some silly stuff ignoring team context, but I appreciate someone on the Internet doing the legwork of guesstimating everyone.   To the extent every team is a Raysian hedge fund now, every player is a blue chip, a penny stock or a financial liability (TEX Semien/Seager duo = -$50mm).

I guess in an echo of McCutchen being better than Jones, Bryan Reynolds 1.27.1995 with two excellent seasons has an edge on Mullins 10.1.1994 if the team decides they can't win with him.   They have Reynolds more at Adley's ~$85mm number, about 20 ahead.   CF trade market wise, they have Laureano in the 60's with Mullins.

Vladimir Guerrero, Framber Valdez, Mike Trout, Austin Riley and Ian Anderson are the other MLB-wide guys they have in the 80's with Adley, where to me Framber feels out of place, and Vlad seems low.

It does feel like Adley could go to 9-figures quickly if MLB excellence gets demonstrated; for now they think LAD Will Smith is a slightly more valuable catcher contract to possess, even with less years.   Tyler Stephenson's very fine rookie year increased him to about 150% of Pirates 1-1 "catcher" Henry Davis.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 11/30/2021 at 10:56 PM, Just Regular said:

Rangers ideas looking at their numbers:

Jung - $35mm and Leiter - $30mm match their Mullins - $66mm, though I don't believe we could get both.

Winn - $21mm and Foscue - $16mm match their Means - $37mm

Poking around their site, this link has anything its readership has thought up for the Orioles.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/?team_filter=500

At first glance, several of the Marlins guesses include Orioles asks of SS Isaiah Watson instead of all pitching.

 

Definitely the O's should be looking at trades with the Rangers.  The Rangers have made a huge commitment w/ signing Seager and Semien, but they obviously still need a lot of help on the pitching side even with adding Gray.  I would love a trade of Means that brings back Leiter.  Maybe that's a bit of a reach, but it never hurts to try.  I don't think the Rangers signed Seager, Semien and Gray to finish 4th. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Definitely the O's should be looking at trades with the Rangers.  The Rangers have made a huge commitment w/ signing Seager and Semien, but they obviously still need a lot of help on the pitching side even with adding Gray.  I would love a trade of Means that brings back Leiter.  Maybe that's a bit of a reach, but it never hurts to try.  I don't think the Rangers signed Seager, Semien and Gray to finish 4th. 

Mullins makes sense for them.  Would love to get Jung from them.

[waroriole]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins makes sense for them.  Would love to get Jung from them.

He really crushed the ball last year. What’s his defensive ability?

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins makes sense for them.  Would love to get Jung from them.

Jung and Leiter/Winn would be a good deal. 

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, waroriole said:

He really crushed the ball last year. What’s his defensive ability?

From MLB

 

Quote

Though Jung has below-average speed, he has the athleticism, instincts, hands and strong arm to play at least an average third base. He spent the second half of the 2019 college season at shortstop and saw time there again in alt camp and instructs, where he also got reps at second base and in the outfield. Texas believes in Jung at the hot corner enough to move Gold Glover Isiah Kiner-Falefa to shortstop for 2021. 

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Jung and Leiter/Winn would be a good deal. 

Yea, you aren’t getting Jung and Leiter.  That’s a non starter.