Trade Bait 2022

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Maybe, but I don't see Mancini going this week. I don't think there is enough of a need out there for him. I think the best option for him is to let him play the 1st half and hope he's closer to the 2019 version. That would yield something. Then, by July Stowers is hopefully ready and can take some of the ABs with a rotation in the DH spot. 

The Mets were just willing to trade for Hosmer and it’s not like they were getting studs to come with him.

Wonder if Buck wants Trey?

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The Mets were just willing to trade for Hosmer and it’s not like they were getting studs to come with him.

Wonder if Buck wants Trey?

That trade fell through and we don't really know what it was. It never did make sense. Based on the rumor, however, I think the deal was more about Paddack and Pagan for pitching depth and they got Hosmer back (along with money to offset him) as a way to somewhat replace Dom Smith who would have gone in that deal. Pagan would improve their pen and Paddack could slide into the 5th spot in the rotation ahead of Megill (or whoever wins that spot) until deGrom comes back and slides everyone down. 

Unless the Mets are trading away someone like Smith, they don't need a 1B/DH. Alonso at 1B and Cano, Smith, J.D. Davis, etc to get DH ABs and spell other guys who could get ABs at DH, I don't see the need there unless a piece is moved. I think them taking Hosmer was just as much a plus for SD as it was the Mets trying to get another 1B. 

[ScGO's]

Trade Bait Update as we finish up April

Already Dealt From the Original List- Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser

 

Stock Rising

1. Anthony Santander - .852 OPS and 2nd in the League in BBs. If he continues to roll like this, he could bring back a solid return.

2. Jorge Lopez - 4 for 4 in Save Opportunities. Stuff looks pretty good. If he stays consistent, he will have value at the trade deadline.

3. Dillon Tate - His CH looks really good this year.  Good numbers so far; has a track record in the back of the bullpen now. Was drawing interest last year, so I can only assume it will get stronger this year if he stays steady. Probably similar return to what we have seen from dealing our other relievers the past few seasons.

 

Steady Value

1. Cedric Mullins - Enough tools and early enough to still have a lot of value, but his early numbers probably don't have the phones ringing much.

2. Trey Mancini - Hidden data shows that he's hitting the ball hard consistently, but having some bad luck.  Hoping for a hot streak soon to get his name back in the trade rumor mill.

3. Austin Hays - No rush to trade Austin; he's not struggling, but he's not hot yet either.  If he can stay healthy and build on last season, his name may come up more and more.

4. Jordan Lyles - So far, he's performing how I would have expected; 2 good starts, 2 poor starts. Hopefully he can string together a hot streak mid season and be a potential piece for a team needing back-end rotation depth.

 

Stock Dropping/No Value

1. Roughned Odor - So far, Ouch. Any hope that he would find his power stroke isn't looking too good, and he could be at risk of being cut soon.

2. DJ Stewart - I had hope he would get some ABs and show some OBP and pop and be able to be swung in a trade. Can't see that happening now unless its in a Cash or PTBNL deal just to get him new scenery.

3. John Means - Tommy John obviously kills his value in the present, but he could rebuild it in the future for sure.

4. Paul Fry - Really struggling every since he was almost dealt last year.  Probably should have pulled the trigger on a potential trade last year

 

New Value

1. Joey Krehbiel - The O's essentially have control of Krehbiel for the next several years, but much like Cole Sulser, they acquired him as an older yet controlable prospect as Krehbiel is 29.  No rush to trade, but since young blood will be arriving soon, he could be swung in similar way Sulser was after a year or two of success.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Trade Bait Update as we finish up April

 

4. Jordan Lyles - So far, he's performing how I would have expected; 2 good starts, 2 poor starts. Hopefully he can string together a hot streak mid season and be a potential piece for a team needing back-end rotation depth.

 

Good summary, but I have to disagree with Lyles. Lyles might have some trade value, but the Orioles are going to have to eat most of his $7M salary to get even a low level prospect in any trade. 

[Aristotelian]

I'd say Mullins stock is falling. He slowed down a bit in the second half, so his slow start this year could confirm that his scorching first half was somewhat of an aberration. Some thought we might be able to get a top 50 pitching prospect (Meyer). If that was stretch then I would say it's even more unlikely now. 

[ScGO's]

22 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Good summary, but I have to disagree with Lyles. Lyles might have some trade value, but the Orioles are going to have to eat most of his $7M salary to get even a low level prospect in any trade. 

By the time July trade deadline came around, we would owe him maybe 3 Mil? If he's around 4.50 ERA and racking up innings, I don't think teams would fear that price tag.  He probably brings back a Cashner type return, but I'm okay with that.  If some of the younger guys come up and produce, Lyles becomes expendable too.

[ScGO's]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd say Mullins stock is falling. He slowed down a bit in the second half, so his slow start this year could confirm that his scorching first half was somewhat of an aberration. Some thought we might be able to get a top 50 pitching prospect (Meyer). If that was stretch then I would say it's even more unlikely now. 

If it continues into June, then yes, its going to drop quickly. I think he's still looked at as having solid value, especially since his OPS+ is 106, so the league is behind a bit right now.  His OBP is 100 point higher than his Avg; I think a quick turn around is very possible. If it doesn't happen, then yes, they may have missed their opportunity to sell high

[Bahama O's Fan]

We just need a team with a stocked farm to have an OF get injured seriously. Boom...Santander!

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 4/4/2022 at 9:24 AM, Sports Guy said:

The Mets were just willing to trade for Hosmer and it’s not like they were getting studs to come with him.

Wonder if Buck wants Trey?

Hmmm

[ScGO's]

Trade Bait Update

Traded so far: Sulser, Scott, Fry

I was happy to see us get anything for Fry. Bullpen arms were moved first bc young arms are arriving

Trade Value for 2022 

1. Mancini - Power numbers still need to improve, but he's past his early bad luck. At this point, he probably brings a Cashner to Givens type return

2. Mullins - numbers are improving, solid WAR for a slow start. If he gets hot in June, he could bring back a haul

3. Hays - .800 OPS, good D, if he stays healthy and power numbers stay steady, he too could bring back a haul

4. Santandar - Showing flashes of power and obp improvement, D has been steady. If he gets hot going into summer, he could bring back 3+ quality prospects.

5. Tate - Great numbers so far, change up looks great, probably a return similar to Givens or Castro. I expect him to go if he stays steady

6. Lyles - if he keeps this up, he's definitely going to have a market. Return may not be stellar beyond some lottery tickets, but we won't need him by August with young pitching arriving

7. Lopez - 4 saves, Era is solid, need to get walks down. If he can stay consistent he might be able to inflate his value being in that Closer role

I can realistically see all 7 of these guys moved this season. It would add a huge surge to our already solid pipe line

 

 

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

Mancini, Santander, and Lyles go if they are playing well and are healthy. Mullins and Hays stay. Lopez and Tate are 50/50. Lopez is in arb and is making 1.5mm this year. Not sure if Tate will be arb eligible next year. If so, it would only be around the 1.5mm Lopez and Scott got. 
 

You mention the young arms arriving for the bullpen. I guess you’re thinking we trade Lopez and Tate, and replace them with the likes of Baumann and Kremer?  I’m not sure where the other late inning relief type arms in our system are?  
 

I don’t think we’re going to do anything earth shattering at the deadline, but we will add to our prospect inventory. We also create 2nd half ABs for McKenna, Stowers, Diaz, and Neustrom. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Trade Bait Update

Traded so far: Sulser, Scott, Fry

I was happy to see us get anything for Fry. Bullpen arms were moved first bc young arms are arriving

Trade Value for 2022 

1. Mancini - Power numbers still need to improve, but he's past his early bad luck. At this point, he probably brings a Cashner to Givens type return

2. Mullins - numbers are improving, solid WAR for a slow start. If he gets hot in June, he could bring back a haul

3. Hays - .800 OPS, good D, if he stays healthy and power numbers stay steady, he too could bring back a haul

4. Santandar - Showing flashes of power and obp improvement, D has been steady. If he gets hot going into summer, he could bring back 3+ quality prospects.

5. Tate - Great numbers so far, change up looks great, probably a return similar to Givens or Castro. I expect him to go if he stays steady

6. Lyles - if he keeps this up, he's definitely going to have a market. Return may not be stellar beyond some lottery tickets, but we won't need him by August with young pitching arriving

7. Lopez - 4 saves, Era is solid, need to get walks down. If he can stay consistent he might be able to inflate his value being in that Closer role

I can realistically see all 7 of these guys moved this season. It would add a huge surge to our already solid pipe line

 

 

 

 

 

IMO Scott was not traded because of young arms being ready. He was traded because Elias saw an opportunity to get a draft choice.

I don't know if any of these guys are traded.    It depends on whether the team stays healthy and whether when healthy they become competitive for a wild card spot.  If that happens Elias is going to have a tough time even trading Mancini.

If they don't become competitive then Mancini and Lyles may be traded.

[Aristotelian]

48 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Trade Bait Update

Traded so far: Sulser, Scott, Fry

I was happy to see us get anything for Fry. Bullpen arms were moved first bc young arms are arriving

Trade Value for 2022 

1. Mancini - Power numbers still need to improve, but he's past his early bad luck. At this point, he probably brings a Cashner to Givens type return

2. Mullins - numbers are improving, solid WAR for a slow start. If he gets hot in June, he could bring back a haul

3. Hays - .800 OPS, good D, if he stays healthy and power numbers stay steady, he too could bring back a haul

4. Santandar - Showing flashes of power and obp improvement, D has been steady. If he gets hot going into summer, he could bring back 3+ quality prospects.

5. Tate - Great numbers so far, change up looks great, probably a return similar to Givens or Castro. I expect him to go if he stays steady

6. Lyles - if he keeps this up, he's definitely going to have a market. Return may not be stellar beyond some lottery tickets, but we won't need him by August with young pitching arriving

7. Lopez - 4 saves, Era is solid, need to get walks down. If he can stay consistent he might be able to inflate his value being in that Closer role

I can realistically see all 7 of these guys moved this season. It would add a huge surge to our already solid pipe line

 

 

 

 

 

In what world does Mancini have more value than Hays and Mullins (or even Santander/Tate)? He is way more expensive, has fewer years of control, and doesn't play defense. Yes, Trey has decent track record and is quietly hitting .292, but power is down. Santander would give you two years of control and similar OPS, switch hitter, and plays competent defense. 

 

[TommyPickles]

If you look at his OPS+ (131), Santander is having a great year. 

Offense is still way down league wide.

In 2022, average OPS in MLB is .686.

In 2019, average OPS in MLB was .758.

 

In 2020, Santander had an .890 OPS, good for an OPS+ of 135.

In 2022, Santander has an OPS of .786, good for an OPS+ of 131.

He's having a near career year, even though it doesn't quite feel like it.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Trade Bait Update

Traded so far: Sulser, Scott, Fry

With the trades of Scott and Fry, Elias has now traded basically all of the late-Duquette era relievers: Fry, Scott, Givens, Bleier, and Castro. I might be missing one, not sure.