My Tampa Bay Rays obsession. Why? And what it means to the O's.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

Any talk of us in any emulating the Rays is completely absurd.

Look at their drafts.   They take pitchers frequently in the top 10 rounds.   The Elias led Orioles don't.

With that huge, basic difference in draft strategy, any attempt to assume any kind of similarity between what Elias is doing and how the Rays do things goes right out the window.

I agree that not drafting pitchers high is a head scratcher.   But I think that should change soon.

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t even know Baz was the PTBNL in that deal.  What a highway robbery!

Yea, they should be put in prison for that steal.

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Then again ignoring them would be ignorant. I have no problem with the O's doing their own thing but Tampa has proven they can win consistently in the AL East without spending a lot. It would be foolish not to figure out what they are doing and take anything that's applicable. Now, I would not be taking Grayson out after 3 innings just because Tampa does it, but if using Wells as an opener provides more value than as a closer I am all for that. If we have more money than Tampa that is a competitive advantage we should use but we don't have as much as Boston or NYY and never will.

Grayson pitched 103 innings last year.  They probably target him for about 135 IP this coming year.    4 starts at AAA is 20 IP.   115 IP in the majors over 25 starts is a little over 4 innings a start.   On average that is about what I think will happen.   Yes some math is required.

Just because Tyler Wells might be used as a closer or late inning guy does not mean he can't also an opener in some games.  Kittredge was a late inning guy for Tampa but  also opened some games.

[spiritof66]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

That is true for Tampa now.   But they are already thinking about 2023-2027.   They pay a 2m/yr penalty if that move to another city in 2023-2026 and nothing after 2027.   If they can find a city where attendance is much higher they may support a higher payroll in the not too distance future.

I'm pretty sure this game of chicken will end with Tampa offering to spend a whole lot of taxpayer money to build a new stadium. If that happens, I don't think MLB will let the Rays move. (MLB recently shot down the Rays' Tampreal proposal.) 

I'm not sure the Rays would want to move if they get a new stadium -- it's impossible to know whether long-term attendance would be higher in a new city or a better located, more appealing Tampa ballpark. (For one thing, a move likely would reduce drastically the sizable number of Rays tickets sold to fans of the teams they're playing.)

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Part of the trading guys at their peak strategy rests on a team’s confidence in its ability to evaluate prospects and players.   If you have a really good handle on your own team’s prospects and when they will be able to contribute, and some degree of confidence that you can pick the right young guys to trade for, then it’s easier to trade a known quantity.   I think the following epitomizes Tampa:

1.  Trades former no. 2 overall pick Delmon Young and others for Matt Garza and others.  Garza throws 592 innings for Tampa in three years at 109 ERA+.

2.  Trades Garza and others for Chris Archer and others.  Extends Archer while he’s young and he throws 1063 innings for them at ages 23-28 to an ERA+ of 108.

3.   Trades Archer for Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow.   Glasnow so far has a 133 ERA+ in 261 innings (he’s out having TJ surgery now); Meadows has 1525 PA at 124 OPS+.

Just a great job by Tampa picking the right guys to acquire.   

 

Of course. I didn’t suggest that skill wasn’t a requirement. Tampa chooses well and even when they get someone like Delmon Young, they manage to turn him into a benefit. But the trades you mention illustrate the virtue of the basic philosophy. And they also arguably illustrate the quality of the guys on the other side of the table.

Choice of trade partners is also important. It’s clear that some GMs are better traders than others, but it’s also pretty clear what a particular GM likes or doesn’t.  One reason I wanted Kim Ng was because no one has any idea what to expect from her and that will be to her advantage for a while.

Mike hasn’t made any major trades yet so we have no clue about his strengths or weaknesses.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Grayson pitched 103 innings last year.  They probably target him for about 135 IP this coming year.    4 starts at AAA is 20 IP.   115 IP in the majors over 25 starts is a little over 4 innings a start.   On average that is about what I think will happen.   Yes some math is required.

Just because Tyler Wells might be used as a closer or late inning guy does not mean he can't also an opener in some games.  Kittredge was a late inning guy for Tampa but  also opened some games.

Yes, if that is their plan for Grayson that is fine. What I am saying is I wouldn't change my plan with him just because that's how Tampa does their pitchers. If he is capable of becoming a 200 IP guy I would keep stretching him out. That said I agree with your OP, there is a lot we can learn from Tampa.

[wildcard]

55 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, if that is their plan for Grayson that is fine. What I am saying is I wouldn't change my plan with him just because that's how Tampa does their pitchers. If he is capable of becoming a 200 IP guy I would keep stretching him out. That said I agree with your OP, there is a lot we can learn from Tampa.

When Tampa has starters that can go deep in games I think they will let them do that.  Patino, Rasmussen, Baz may be three pitchers like that as they get experience.   It is about the quality of the starters.  Its just kind of amazing that Tampa was able to win 100 games with the quality of the starters they had in 2021.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 1/29/2022 at 11:51 AM, wildcard said:

Tampa has broken the code on the how to win versus the big spending clubs.   They led the AL with 100 wins and a payroll of 77M in 2021.  How did they do it?

1. When many think of Tampa they think of selling their talent at peak value for prospects.  And that is true but it not the only thing that makes them a winner.

2.  In 2021 Tampa led the league in reliever innings with 703 IP and also led the league in reliever ERA with a 3.24 ERA.   

3.   Tampa starters were 14th in innings pitched in 2021.  Only the O's had fewer.   Their starters had a 4.08 ERA with was 6th in the AL. Normally a team with 100 wins has several stud starters.  Tampa had 1/2 of one.  Glasnow who was injured half way through the season.

4.  Tampa does not push all its starters to go 5 innings.   They often pulled their young starter after 4 or so innings.  Remember how Buck always tried to squeeze another out from his starters.  Not Kevin Cash.  He sometimes pulled his young starters even if they are they have given up one or zero runs.  

5.  They employed Openers and Bulk relievers (which are really starters) in 19 games.  Mostly against teams in the AL East. This is so not to have the starter face the top of the lineup too many times.

6. For most of the season relievers were not used on back to back days.

7. Relievers routinely went less then  2 innings.  There were times when they went more but it was not the norm.

8. Tampa used 39 pitchers so they used the AAA pitchers.

So what does all this mean to the O's.   Relievers are cheaper then starters normally.   The O's can afford to improve their relievers to become competitive.  The O's are going to have a lot of young starters.  Following the Tampa model might help  make them  successful by pitching them less innings per start.  I could see Hyde allowing Means and Lyles  pitch deep into games but limiting the innings per game for the young starters.

I think Elias is smart.  He knows much more about why Tampa won 100 games with a low payroll then I do.   I don't think its a reach to think he is considering employing some of these elements.

 

All of that works much better, as do most strategies, when you have a fully-functioning pipeline of inexpensive, quality talent coming out of the minors.  The Orioles are working on it.  When they get there a lot of strategies will look more promising. 

Without the talent Bullpen Year won't be much better than a traditional approach.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

All of that works much better, as do most strategies, when you have a fully-functioning pipeline of inexpensive, quality talent coming out of the minors.  The Orioles are working on it.  When they get there a lot of strategies will look more promising. 

Without the talent Bullpen Year won't be much better than a traditional approach.

I   agree.   One of the leagues best offenses combined with one the league best pitching bullpens is a heck of a combination.

[MCO'sFan]

I think that trading players at the peak of their value is the biggest reason (there are several) that the Rays sustain their pipeline. It’s much easier to hit on and develop talented players when you are working with both quality and quantity. Their ability to turn one good or very good player into 3 good players has allowed them to build their system which graduates 3 or 4 important pieces every year. 

[Sanfran327]

On 1/29/2022 at 12:14 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Did you know that.

1. You can do this.
2. That it makes lists easier to read
3. It keeps some of your bullets from having ) instead of .

As I've said before if Elias tries to copy any other plan for success he's going to fail.  He need to be proactive.  You aren't going to beat the Rays by copying them.

I'm usually on the same page with you, but I think this is flawed logic as a blanket statement. It's a model, and if we are able to add more talent than them to the same model, we should win more often than we lose. 

Anyway, regarding the OP, I think (perhaps incorrectly) we were frontrunners in showing MLB how much an excellent bullpen can prop up a middling rotation. We would not have had the success we did 2012-2016 without a great back end of the bullpen and effective middle relievers. Plus, Buck and Dan used the AAA players and MLB players with options masterfully when arms were strained. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I'm usually on the same page with you, but I think this is flawed logic as a blanket statement. It's a model, and if we are able to add more talent than them to the same model, we should win more often than we lose. 

Anyway, regarding the OP, I think (perhaps incorrectly) we were frontrunners in showing MLB how much an excellent bullpen can prop up a middling rotation. We would not have had the success we did 2012-2016 without a great back end of the bullpen and effective middle relievers. Plus, Buck and Dan used the AAA players and MLB players with options masterfully when arms were strained. 

Yes the Orioles should identify things that work and incorporate them into their models.

I don't think that is the same as copying what the Rays do and hoping it works.

If you go chasing after when works today I don't think you ever find what is going to work tomorrow.

I think the O's need some sort of edge to have a real shot at being competitive and I don't think you get that edge by chasing what has worked in the past.

[Sports Guy]

Let’s face it.  This isn’t really difficult stuff.  There are a lot of people on this site that far more difficult jobs than building a good baseball team.

We don’t need to follow any one particular model.  We just need to be smart.  The ways to win in sports are the same.  Build through the draft, develop your guys and don’t try to build through free agency.  In fact, stay away from free agents as much as possible.  You certainly need to sign some and sprinkle them in with what you have but going overboard almost always costs you.

Just be smart.  Don’t make the same mistakes that are consistently made that don’t work out.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s face it.  This isn’t really difficult stuff.  There are a lot of people on this site that far more difficult jobs than building a good baseball team.

 

[Sanfran327]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes the Orioles should identify things that work and incorporate them into their models.

I don't think that is the same as copying what the Rays do and hoping it works.

If you go chasing after when works today I don't think you ever find what is going to work tomorrow.

I think the O's need some sort of edge to have a real shot at being competitive and I don't think you get that edge by chasing what has worked in the past.

This I get. Our country is obsessed with solving yesterday's problems. Seems to be getting better though.