5 Orioles in top 81 of Keith Law's Top 100 prospects

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

You are correct!

Law's farm system rankings were released today and he did in fact rank the Orioles as 10th. Citing, essentially, reasons. Obviously I think his ranking is silly and while the Orioles may lack depth

This is about as good as a system can get with no contributions from the international side and very little from the trade market.

Obviously I think his ranking is silly and while the Orioles may lack depth, I would certainly take their farm system over all but maybe three teams'. Especially since they are at least spending their international money now, hopefully that bears fruit soon.

Well, the “best farm system in baseball” narrative has taken a big hit over the last week with our system being ranked 4th by BA, 8th by Bleacher Report and now 10th by Law.   I don’t follow other teams’ farm systems so I’m in no position to say who’s right.   But I disagree that we haven’t gotten any talent out of trades.   The 2018 trades were largely busts, but since then Elias has picked up Bradish, Pinto, Deson, Brnovich, Peek and a few others.   And, I think in a year our international efforts will begin to become more obvious as more of the players we’ve acquired in the last two years begin reaching the full season clubs.   

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the “best farm system in baseball” narrative has taken a big hit over the last week with our system being ranked 4th by BA, 8th by Bleacher Report and now 10th by Law.   I don’t follow other teams’ farm systems so I’m in no position to say who’s right.   But I disagree that we haven’t gotten any talent out of trades.   The 2018 trades were largely busts, but since then Elias has picked up Bradish, Pinto, Deson, Brnovich, Peek and a few others.   And, I think in a year our international efforts will begin to become more obvious as more of the players we’ve acquired in the last two years begin reaching the full season clubs.   

Yeah, I am fairly indifferent to farm system rankings. We seem to be moving in the right direction, that is all that matters. Can't control what other teams are doing.

[Sports Guy]

46 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

You are correct!

Law's farm system rankings were released today and he did in fact rank the Orioles as 10th. Citing, essentially, reasons. Obviously I think his ranking is silly and while the Orioles may lack depth

This is about as good as a system can get with no contributions from the international side and very little from the trade market.

Obviously I think his ranking is silly and while the Orioles may lack depth, I would certainly take their farm system over all but maybe three teams'. Especially since they are at least spending their international money now, hopefully that bears fruit soon.

I think it’s a little low but I believe he had them 17th last year, so he sees vast improvement.

That being said, for as much hype as they are getting, we are still very dependent on an oft injured DL Hall and Kjerstad, who hasn’t played.  If those guys can stay healthy and have big years, things look tremendous.  If they don’t, Laws ranking is pretty accurate imo.  
 

I feel like something in the 3-7 range makes sense for where we are today.

[LookinUp]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the “best farm system in baseball” narrative has taken a big hit over the last week with our system being ranked 4th by BA, 8th by Bleacher Report and now 10th by Law.   I don’t follow other teams’ farm systems so I’m in no position to say who’s right.   But I disagree that we haven’t gotten any talent out of trades.   The 2018 trades were largely busts, but since then Elias has picked up Bradish, Pinto, Deson, Brnovich, Peek and a few others.   And, I think in a year our international efforts will begin to become more obvious as more of the players we’ve acquired in the last two years begin reaching the full season clubs.   

While I don't disagree, only Bradish is really knocking on the ML door. The rest of those guys might be a year away from really impacting rankings.

[Frobby]

Has Law come out with his Orioles’ top 20 yet?   Per an earlier post dated 1/31, he said it was coming out “next week.”

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Has Law come out with his Orioles’ top 20 yet?   Per an earlier post dated 1/31, he said it was coming out “next week.”

His team top 20 lists start tomorrow, going division by division. I will post on this thread when the Orioles list is released.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s a little low but I believe he had them 17th last year, so he sees vast improvement.

That being said, for as much hype as they are getting, we are still very dependent on an oft injured DL Hall and Kjerstad, who hasn’t played.  If those guys can stay healthy and have big years, things look tremendous.  If they don’t, Laws ranking is pretty accurate imo.  
 

I feel like something in the 3-7 range makes sense for where we are today.

I think most lists have discounted him a fair amount (put another way, it's already baked in), so I think he actually offers quite a bit of upside at this point re: system rankings

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think most lists have discounted him a fair amount (put another way, it's already baked in), so I think he actually offers quite a bit of upside at this point re: system rankings

I think some have, yes...I think Orioles fans have not.  Orioles fans get upset at Law for lower rankings and then they talk about our top 10 but when those guys are part of it, its fair to be skeptical.

[LookinUp]

Upside guys who could really improve our rankings next year:

1. Mayo (most don't have him where Tony does. top prospect upside)
2. Hall (healthy is top prospect)
3. Westburg (top 100 upside next year)
4. Kjerstad (top 50 upside next year
5. Basallo
6. Pinto
7. Hernandez
8. Baumler
9. Ortiz
10. Willems
11. Norby (honorable mention...bat could make him jump quickly)

I think 5-11 will have a very hard time making top 100 lists after this year. They're more likely 2 years away, though you could argue Ortiz could shoot up really fast if he has a big year since he's a SS and he'll start the season at AA. Note, I didn't include Cowser or Henderson because I feel like the rankings are already on those guys. You could argue they're already on Hall too, but he's got top pitcher prospect in baseball upside, so I included him.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Upside guys who could really improve our rankings next year:

1. Mayo (most don't have him where Tony does. top prospect upside)
2. Hall (healthy is top prospect)
3. Westburg (top 100 upside next year)
4. Kjerstad (top 50 upside next year
5. Basallo
6. Pinto
7. Hernandez
8. Baumler
9. Ortiz
10. Willems
11. Norby (honorable mention...bat could make him jump quickly)

I think 5-11 will have a very hard time making top 100 lists after this year. They're more likely 2 years away, though you could argue Ortiz could shoot up really fast if he has a big year since he's a SS and he'll start the season at AA. Note, I didn't include Cowser or Henderson because I feel like the rankings are already on those guys. You could argue they're already on Hall too, but he's got top pitcher prospect in baseball upside, so I included him.

 

For any team, the Int'l guys are always wild cards.  They get bigger quickly (because of age) and add power or velocity or whatever.  Just never know with those guys but of what we do know, I think this is a good list.

[Sports Guy]

Hi Keith. It was surprising to see the Dodgers as the top ranked farm system since it's usually teams that have spent the previous years tanking and rebuilding that we see at the top. Is their success replicable by other teams? (We've seen strong teams with financial advantages in the past but none that have seemed to accrue this much talent in the minors AND achieve the type of success the Dodgers have had in the last 5 plus years). 

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Keith Law

20h ago

 

@Chris P. Their success is a function of their people. They maintained sizable staffs across the board even through the pandemic and the industry-wide war on scouts, and they remain one of the best organizations at implementing a top-down philosophy that requires departments to work together. For example, their amateur scouting dept keeps finding guys in later rounds whom player development can work with to help them improve. There's no reason other teams couldn't do all of this. It makes it all the more appalling that clubs like Baltimore and Milwaukee have decided that scouts don't matter. The best-run orgs, like the Dodgers and Rays, still have scouts and use them extremely well.

[Sports Guy]

Consider budget constraints and what they are forced to do to compete, is what TB does every year just remarkable? Constantly developing major league talent that graduates yet it seems they are always a top 5 system. Then Friedman leaves and Dodgers shoot to #1 too. Unreal stuff. 

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Keith Law

20h ago

 

@Rich Z. Not a coincidence. I know several Rays scouts and they rave about how well the front office works with them, communicating regularly and integrating them into the various processes that other teams might keep to just a few execs. It's a model for running any business with employees in disparate locations.

[Sports Guy]

What would have to happen for the orioles to have a top 5 minor league system in 2023 while graduating Adley and Grayson (most likely)? 

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Keith Law

20h ago

 

@Craig L. Going to be hard. Maybe they trade Means for some surprising return; Hall and Kjerstad come back and have huge years; and some of their bubbling-under types, like Ortiz (who looked so good early, what a shame he got hurt), complete their breakouts? It is very hard to have a top 5 system with basically nothing from international, though. I think the Orioles are about as high as anyone can realistically get. The nine systems above them all have significant contributions from players signed as IFAs.

[Sports Guy]

Klaw was is your opinion on the int'l guy Arias signed by NYY a few weeks ago (or years ago and announced weeks ago)? Hard to project at that age but curious if we'll be seeing anything on him in your team write-ups? 

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Keith Law

20h ago

 

@Rich Z. I did not consider any of this most recent group of IFAs in the rankings because we have relatively little information and no data - with one exception, Oscar Colás, who is 23 and played in the NPB and Serie Nacional. He's comparable to most AA prospects.

[Sports Guy]

 

https://theathletic.com/3145964/2022/02/24/orioles-qa-with-keith-law-about-his-prospect-rankings-and-observations/?source=user_shared_article

Well, from this interview, it’s pretty clear he doesn’t value what other sites and people say.