The Athletic trade discussions- Mancini

[Chaka Garcia]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Alright, well what more do you think we could get?  What's the value for someone like Mancini who's fairly limited?

I think they would target DSL types with lottery potential. Plus, it removes 7 million to reallocate on pitching or infrastructure/data analytics projects.

May sound cold - I would drop Maccini without hesitation for this type of package (save money + potential). 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Chaka Garcia

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Alright, well what more do you think we could get?  What's the value for someone like Mancini who's fairly limited?

I think Lowther would be the type of guy who would be thesecond prospect and you get someone like Bradish.  (Varying opinions on where he should be ranked but higher upside than Jones)

I also wouldn’t be surprised if you can get a 17 y/o into FA thrown in. 
 

 

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I think they would target DSL types with lottery potential. Plus, it removes 7 million to reallocate on pitching or infrastructure/data analytics projects.

May sound cold - I would drop Maccini without hesitation for this type of package (save money + potential). 

I'd target DSL types, for sure.  The more, the merrier.  That's where the value is, IMO.

 

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Lowther would be the type of guy who would be thesecond prospect and you get someone like Bradish.  (Varying opinions on where he should be ranked but higher upside than Jones)

I also wouldn’t be surprised if you can get a 17 y/o into FA thrown in. 
 

 

I'd be alright with a Bradish type, for sure.  If we got that, I'd be pleased.  A Jahmai Jones type would be an eye-roll.

And yes, 17 year old dominican types are where it's at.  We should be stockpiling them aggressively.  

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Lowther would be the type of guy who would be thesecond prospect and you get someone like Bradish.  (Varying opinions on where he should be ranked but higher upside than Jones)

I also wouldn’t be surprised if you can get a 17 y/o into FA thrown in. 
 

 

Are any of the 4 deals listed in the OP that you posted better than Lowther and Jones?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I think there's a very good chance he puts a solid first half and the O's can deal him at this year's deadline. Like you said, a trade last season was pretty untenable what with the home run derby and having Trey represent the O's with his great story and all that. Fortunately, we can just do that this year. After a normal offseason, and another year removed from recovery, I think he have a good few months and end up on a contender. 

Half a year of a RH 1B/DH with $3-4 million remaining on the ledger probably doesn't get you anything particularly interesting at the deadline unless he absolutely mashes for the first few months of the season, which is certainly possible but pretty unlikely in Trey's case, IMO. 

I would probably just take what I can get for Mancini, but if the FO ultimately decides that the PR hit would be larger than some meager return on trading him and just let him play out the season here then walk, I am not going to blow a gasket or anything.

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When people say Mancini won’t bring anything back right now, how are you defining that?

I dunno, maybe a pair of guys firmly in the back half of someone's Top 30? At $8ish million and coming off a pretty pedestrian overall 2021, and being best-suited for DH work at this point in his career, maybe not even that honestly.

Certainly nothing to really get excited about or lose sleep over at the end of the day.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Half a year of a RH 1B/DH with $3-4 million remaining on the ledger probably doesn't get you anything particularly interesting at the deadline unless he absolutely mashes for the first few months of the season, which is certainly possible but pretty unlikely in Trey's case, IMO. 

I would probably just take what I can get for Mancini, but if the FO ultimately decides that the PR hit would be larger than some meager return on trading him and just let him play out the season here then walk, I am not going to blow a gasket or anything.

I dunno, maybe a pair of guys firmly in the back half of someone's Top 30? At $8ish million and coming off a pretty pedestrian overall 2021, and being best-suited for DH work at this point in his career, maybe not even that honestly.

Certainly nothing to really get excited about or lose sleep over at the end of the day.

Back half means the 15-30 range.  Depends on the system and the players.  The #20 guy In a good system is better than some top 12 players in other systems.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Kyle Bradish is generally considered our 3rd best SP prospect and one of our top 10 or so prospects overall right now, no one is giving that kind of value up for 1 year of Trey Mancini at $8 million, much less more than that.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Kyle Bradish is generally considered our 3rd best SP prospect and one of our top 10 or so prospects overall right now, no one is giving that kind of value up for 1 year of Trey Mancini at $8 million, much less more than that.

And Tony has him around 15th.(which is the area he should be in)

Bradish has a reliever profile with a chance to be back end starter.  

It’s not like he has some tremendous value.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Back half means the 15-30 range.  Depends on the system and the players.  The #20 guy In a good system is better than some top 12 players in other systems.

 

Sure, but the better the system, the lower down the list the return would be, and it's unlikely to be anything to write home about ultimately anywayy. A guy whose ceiling is average-ish regular, but most likely positive outcome is that of a part-time utility guy? Meh, those guys are a dime a dozen.

I'm not saying that I personally would turn that hypothetical offer down btw, just that I am not going to be particularly upset either if Elias and the gang decide that it's not worth the potential negative fan reaction.

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not like he has some tremendous value.

I completely agree that Bradish isn't terribly exciting, but as a 30 year old RH 1B/DH with one year of control remaining at $8 million who is coming off a sub-1.0 WAR full season, Mancini probably doesn't even have enough value to land you another team's version of him.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sure, but the better the system, the lower down the list the return would be, and it's unlikely to be anything to write home about ultimately anywayy. A guy whose ceiling is average-ish regular, but most likely positive outcome is that of a part-time utility guy? Meh, those guys are a dime a dozen.

I'm not saying that I personally would turn that hypothetical offer down btw, just that I am not going to be particularly upset either if Elias and the gang decide that it's not worth the potential negative fan reaction.

I completely agree that Bradish isn't terribly exciting, but as a 30 year old RH 1B/DH with one year of control remaining at $8 million who is coming off a sub-1.0 WAR full season, Mancini probably doesn't even have enough value to land you another team's version of him.

I think people are underestimating Mancini’s value.  Teams know his upside and it’s a one year, minimal investment.  Not to mention, he’s a good clubhouse guy.

His value isn’t great but you are getting more for him than we had to give up for JJ Hardy imo.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think people are underestimating Mancini’s value.  

Are we though? Or are some fans overestimating his value?

He was only slightly above league average offensively last year and his best overall season just happened to coincide with the juiced ball season in 2019 when everybody and their grandpa was mashing like crazy. Other than that, he had a mediocre year in 2018 and a good year as a 25 year old rookie all the way back in 2017. And he doesn't really have much value or versatility from a defensive standpoint.

There's definitely some value in Trey, sure, but not really enough for another team to pay him $8 million dollars AND give up good young talent to acquire him IMO. What we should do (but almost certainly won't, of course) is offer to pay some or all of his salary or take on someone else's bad contract to improve the quality of the prospect return. 

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think people are underestimating Mancini’s value.  Teams know his upside and it’s a one year, minimal investment.  Not to mention, he’s a good clubhouse guy.

His value isn’t great but you are getting more for him than we had to give up for JJ Hardy imo.

That’s not a high bar.   I think a more recent comp to consider is what we got for Jonathan Villar, who was one year from free agency and expected to make $8 mm+.    In return we got Easton Lucas, who’s not on Tony’s top 75 list or the other top 50 lists I’ve seen.  Now, I think Mancini would bring more than that, but probably not a ton more.  

[Can_of_corn]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think people are underestimating Mancini’s value.  Teams know his upside and it’s a one year, minimal investment.  Not to mention, he’s a good clubhouse guy.

His value isn’t great but you are getting more for him than we had to give up for JJ Hardy imo.

How his Hearts game?  I don't care much if a guy is a jerk or not but if he's a good fourth in a game of Hearts...

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s not a high bar.   I think a more recent comp to consider is what we got for Jonathan Villar, who was one year from free agency and expected to make $8 mm+.    In return we got Easton Lucas, who’s not on Tony’s top 75 list or the other top 50 lists I’ve seen.  Now, I think Mancini would bring more than that, but probably not a ton more.  

It’s not a high bar but I feel that’s what people think we would get if we traded him.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Are we though? Or are some fans overestimating his value?

He was only slightly above league average offensively last year and his best overall season just happened to coincide with the juiced ball season in 2019 when everybody and their grandpa was mashing like crazy. Other than that, he had a mediocre year in 2018 and a good year as a 25 year old rookie all the way back in 2017. And he doesn't really have much value or versatility from a defensive standpoint.

There's definitely some value in Trey, sure, but not really enough for another team to pay him $8 million dollars AND give up good young talent to acquire him IMO. What we should do (but almost certainly won't, of course) is offer to pay some or all of his salary or take on someone else's bad contract to improve the quality of the prospect return. 

Well the 2019 season did coincide with that ball but he was still one of the 30 best offensive players by most measures in that season.  So, even relative to other players who played with that ball, he stood out.

Im not going to sit here and argue that he has tremendous value because I don’t think he does.  But I do think the NL DH helps and I do think teams could be looking for another bat to help out there.  Maybe then can sign guys to do that or trade for someone with less salary.  Very possible.

I don’t think any players being discussed in this thread show anyone is overvaluing him because no one is talking about trading a ton of value for him.

We have seen multiple places mention Russ Kneihr..who MLB.com has their 9th best prospect.

I have mentioned Reggie Lawson, who seems to be a borderline top 10 guy and a young lottery ticket like guy.  I also said that the Pads have 2 older relievers coming off a good year but making decent money and maybe they would say you take one of them back to help offset the cost.  
 

I think that would be a doable deal.