Fangraphs on managing prospect expectations

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not many guys hitting over .285 these days.  I certainly wouldn't expect a Catcher to manage it.

True, the game has changed into a HR or K mentality so averages have come down a bit (I'm sure Frobby will be able to look it up and confirm especially is it says something different), but I just think his value will be more on bae and power than through a  high average, though I don't see him being a low average guy once he settles into the big leagues.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

True, the game has changed into a HR or K mentality so averages have come down a bit (I'm sure Frobby will be able to look it up and confirm especially is it says something different), but I just think his value will be more on bae and power than through a  high average, though I don't see him being a low average guy once he settles into the big leagues.

I agree with this assessment.   I see him as a .275/.350/.500 type guy in his prime years.   

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree with this assessment.   I see him as a .275/.350/.500 type guy in his prime years.   

A big question is how long can he maintain peak production. If Wieters had maintained peak 4-5 WAR beyond 2011-12 we wouldn't be having this conversation like he was some kind of disappointment. Even if Rutschman is never an 8 WAR guy he could still be incredibly productive if he can just maintain it longer than Wieters did. Of course, multiple years of 8 WAR would be nice

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/exploring-40-man-roster-timeline-dynamics/

Another long-ish piece as Longenhagen and Goldstein wind down their prospect week (and presumably turn back to the second half of team reports).

As we have started the IFA thing last few years, the ~90/10 split in $$$ to Bats over Arms was more than I would have guessed.    This piece had some good substance helping me appreciate why that it is...the parts about "this Latin guy born in 2001" vs. "this NCAA guy born in 2001" and how same present talent can have different forecasts because of the pipe they came in on were interesting.

[spiritof66]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

A big question is how long can he maintain peak production. If Wieters had maintained peak 4-5 WAR beyond 2011-12 we wouldn't be having this conversation like he was some kind of disappointment. Even if Rutschman is never an 8 WAR guy he could still be incredibly productive if he can just maintain it longer than Wieters did. Of course, multiple years of 8 WAR would be nice

I'm focused more on the other end: whatever Rutschman's or GRod's peak is, how long will it take each of them to get to that level?  Both of them will be Orioles during that ramping up period (that is, assuming they do ramp up). Whether they remain productive for longer than 5 or 6 years may well have no effect on the Orioles.

[Pickles]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The one thing you have to remember is Wieters got overhyped due his minor league numbers which were off the chart until AAA. When drafted, Joe Jordan gave Jason Varitek as a comp. After his minor league seasons everyone thought more like Johnny Bench.

Rutschamn has always had a Johnny Bench type comp as a plus offensive and defensive catcher. I do think Rutschman was higher ranked prospect and is the better prospect overall. 

We have to hope that Rutschman well outperforms Wieters at the major league level since Wieters even undershot the Varitek comp by 6 WAR over their careers.

All of this is fair.

As is pointed out after this post, for two-three years Wieters was a "franchise" player imo.  I think I'll be happy if AR replicates that, with better obp, and is able to maintain it for a longer period of time.

One thing I am eager to see is how well AR's defense compares to Wieters'.

Nobody- and I think you'll admit he exceeded your expectations- predicted Wieters to be the defensive player he was.  In fact, Wieters' defense was the one thing most scouts pointed out as a weakness, almost obligatorily so.  He was a legitimate Gold Glover.

If Rutschman turns out to be the good defensively with another 10% of offense tacked on (to Wieters' best), I'll be thrilled.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Pickles said:

All of this is fair.

As is pointed out after this post, for two-three years Wieters was a "franchise" player imo.  I think I'll be happy if AR replicates that, with better obp, and is able to maintain it for a longer period of time.

One thing I am eager to see is how well AR's defense compares to Wieters'.

Nobody- and I think you'll admit he exceeded your expectations- predicted Wieters to be the defensive player he was.  In fact, Wieters' defense was the one thing most scouts pointed out as a weakness, almost obligatorily so.  He was a legitimate Gold Glover.

If Rutschman turns out to be the good defensively with another 10% of offense tacked on (to Wieters' best), I'll be thrilled.

I don't remember Wieters ever getting a scouting report that his defense was weak, especially his arm which was plus-plus. Game calling was always Wieters downfall but modern catchers don't really have that issue because they now have cards to tell them what to call in almost every situation.

In 2011 and 2012, Wieters had 5.2 and 4.1 seasons and had only one more season where he was worth more than 1.2 (2016 at 1.9 WAR) so I could buy Wieters was a Franchise two player for two years, but overall he was more of an average major league catcher. Not bad, but not what I think we expect for a 1-1 pick like Rutschman. 

I will tell you now that Rutschman is better defensively than Wieters was though he may not have the raw arm strength that Wieters had. Wieters won two GG and rightfully so because he was outstanding in 2011 and 2012, but his defense fell off by the time he hit 27 years old.

You said you would be happy if Rutschamn repeat's Wieters best years but even over those two great years, Wieters slashed .255/.329/.443/.771. I think those numbers would be a disappointment for Rutschaman after his rookie year. 

I don't think Wieters was a failure as a 1st round pick, but I had to grade his Orioles career based off his draft status and minor league numbers, I'd say C to C-.
 

 

[Pickles]

58 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't remember Wieters ever getting a scouting report that his defense was weak, especially his arm which was plus-plus. Game calling was always Wieters downfall but modern catchers don't really have that issue because they now have cards to tell them what to call in almost every situation.

In 2011 and 2012, Wieters had 5.2 and 4.1 seasons and had only one more season where he was worth more than 1.2 (2016 at 1.9 WAR) so I could buy Wieters was a Franchise two player for two years, but overall he was more of an average major league catcher. Not bad, but not what I think we expect for a 1-1 pick like Rutschman. 

I will tell you now that Rutschman is better defensively than Wieters was though he may not have the raw arm strength that Wieters had. Wieters won two GG and rightfully so because he was outstanding in 2011 and 2012, but his defense fell off by the time he hit 27 years old.

You said you would be happy if Rutschamn repeat's Wieters best years but even over those two great years, Wieters slashed .255/.329/.443/.771. I think those numbers would be a disappointment for Rutschaman after his rookie year. 

I don't think Wieters was a failure as a 1st round pick, but I had to grade his Orioles career based off his draft status and minor league numbers, I'd say C to C-.
 

 

I think the critiques of Wieters' defense were mostly about his size and length, and whether he could be compact enough to set a good target and get a good pop time.  And it was almost always what was cited under weakness, as nobody would criticize any aspect of his bat.  Admittedly, that would have taken a brave scout considering Wieters' performance in the MiLs.

All I can say is reading your reports here is quite exciting.  If I were betting I'd take AR for the over of Wieters' career.  My inclination to temper my expectations is based not on my evaluation of his talent, but rather simply based on probabilities.

[LookinUp]

17 hours ago, Pickles said:

One thing I am eager to see is how well AR's defense compares to Wieters'.

Man. The one wow thing about Wieters' game was his arm. At his best, you couldn't steal on him unless the pitcher was really slow to the plate. Lightning quick release. Rocket arm. Great accuracy. He was awesome in that part of the game.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Man. The one wow thing about Wieters' game was his arm. At his best, you couldn't steal on him unless the pitcher was really slow to the plate. Lightning quick release. Rocket arm. Great accuracy. He was awesome in that part of the game.

Indeed.

And in all the words written about him as a prospect- much of it rhapsodic praise about his offensive potential which turned out to be excessive- I can't recall a single evaluator accurately predicting how good defensively Wieters would be.

[LookinUp]

57 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Indeed.

And in all the words written about him as a prospect- much of it rhapsodic praise about his offensive potential which turned out to be excessive- I can't recall a single evaluator accurately predicting how good defensively Wieters would be.

I don't recall that, but he was a closer in college, right? I was always under the impression that his arm was great.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't recall that, but he was a closer in college, right? I was always under the impression that his arm was great.

He was.  IIRC, he touched 95 off a mound.

Yeah, the criticisms of his defense were not about his arm strenght.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Pickles said:

He was.  IIRC, he touched 95 off a mound.

Yeah, the criticisms of his defense were not about his arm strenght.

I really don’t recall criticism, it’s just that defense wasn’t his big selling point.   His hitting was.   He definitely exceeded expectations defensively and fell short of them offensively.   

[waroriole]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really don’t recall criticism, it’s just that defense wasn’t his big selling point.   His hitting was.   He definitely exceeded expectations defensively and fell short of them offensively.   

I think the concerns for Wieters defense when he was in the minors was that he was too tall to be able to come out of the crouch and throw out runners. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think the concerns for Wieters defense when he was in the minors was that he was too tall to be able to come out of the crouch and throw out runners. 

And/or too tall to set a good low target.

He had a couple really nice years on defense but his defensive peak didn't last long.