Jordan Lyles agrees to 1-year deal with O's

[Il BuonO]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think it was an overpay.  Its a one year agreement with an option which fits the O's desire contract length.  He projects to give the O's 150-180 IP which is something they need with all the young pitchers they have.  And he projects to be around a 5.00 ERA which Tampa had three starters like that on a 100 win team.

The O's got something the wanted and needed.

But people are complaining about a 4.73 ERA that Akin had.  It was an overpay. Can you imagine them giving Akin a deal for $7mil?

[Just Regular]

To the extent I could take the position Jordan Lyles not fungible (and perhaps doing MASN graphic work for them), here I am getting him onto Page 1 of a Fangraphs leaderboard.

Innings Pitched 2019-2021:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=8,d

Is he bad?   Of course.    Though Stearns/Milwaukee found something half a season Texas couldn't replicate.    Does Elias have the same secret sauce?    Probably not!     But he's taken his turns 3 years straight and if he can keep stress off insufficiently prepared (by Elias' estimation) arms, the 6.50 or 5.50 or 4.50 ERA part is I feel mostly academic.    He's healthy now, and volume is all we're purchasing.

Just don't get hurt while we Decision Science figure out a way to get through an entire season with two starters and a dozen middle relievers.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think it was an overpay.  Its a one year agreement with an option which fits the O's desire contract length.  He projects to give the O's 150-180 IP which is something they need with all the young pitchers they have.  And he projects to be around a 5.00 ERA which Tampa had three starters like that on a 100 win team.

The O's got something the wanted and needed.

Here’s the downside: 

You say Lyles projects to throw 150-180 innings, but he’s only pitched 150+ once in his career, and has only been over 100 innings twice since 2014.   

You say he projects to around a 5.00 ERA, but his career 82 ERA+ translates more to 5.50, and that’s before you take into account the tougher competition in the AL East.

So, the odds that Lyles throws 150.-180 innings at around a 5.00 ERA are not that good based on his track record.   But like I said, perhaps the O’s saw some things that made them think he can outperform his track record.   
 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think it was an overpay.  Its a one year agreement with an option which fits the O's desire contract length.  He projects to give the O's 150-180 IP which is something they need with all the young pitchers they have.  And he projects to be around a 5.00 ERA which Tampa had three starters like that on a 100 win team.

The O's got something the wanted and needed.

Well, it’s obvious that it was an overpay. Davies is the most recent example proving that.

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the downside: 

You say Lyles projects to throw 150-180 innings, but he’s only pitched 150+ once in his career, and has only been over 100 innings twice since 2014.   

You say he projects to around a 5.00 ERA, but his career 82 ERA+ translates more to 5.50, and that’s before you take into account the tougher competition in the AL East.

So, the odds that Lyles throws 150.-180 innings at around a 5.00 ERA are not that good based on his track record.   But like I said, perhaps the O’s saw some things that made them think he can outperform his track record.   
 

Don't forget negative WAR for career as well as the last two years. Theoretically someone off the waiver wire making the minimum should be about as good.

[Tony-OH]

i had heard Elias said Lyles did something different in September and that's what they are banking on. Lyles pitched to a 2.87 ERA and 3.55 FIP over his 5 games holding batters to a .215/.292/.346/.638 slash.

So what did he do differently? 

Looking at Baseball Savant, it appears he dropped his fastball usage way down to 29.3% (47.4% in April) and replaced that with a sinker at 17.1% (1.5% in April).

But the biggest change was in his slider where he increased his horizontal movement to 15 inches in September, 3 inches more than in August and 9 inches more than in April. He accordingly increased the usage of his slider to 26.1% (17.8% in August). Batter slashed just .138/.145/.172/.255 against his slider in September. 

the effectiveness of his slider made all his pitches play up a bit as hard hit % and barrel% all went down and swing and miss went up significantly on the slider, curveball, cutter and change.

So if Lyle's slider is for real, the Orioles may have found themselves a bargain. 

  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

 

So what did he do differently? 

Looking at Baseball Savant, it appears he dropped his fastball usage way down to 29.3% (47.4% in April) and replaced that with a sinker at 17.1% (1.5% in April).

But the biggest change was in his slider where he increased his horizontal movement to 15 inches in September, 3 inches more than in August and 9 inches more than in April. He accordingly increased the usage of his slider to 26.1% (17.8% in August). Batter slashed just .138/.145/.172/.255 against his slider in September. 

the effectiveness of his slider made all his pitches play up a bit as hard hit % and barrel% all went down and swing and miss went up significantly on the slider, curveball, cutter and change.

So if Lyle's slider is for real, the Orioles may have found themselves a bargain. 

  

So Lyles found the new spider tack that isn’t banned by MLB yet? 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

But people are complaining about a 4.73 ERA that Akin had.  It was an overpay. Can you imagine them giving Akin a deal for $7mil?

Akin has one pitch.  His fastball.  Everything else gets hit hard.  Lyles is a better pitcher.

Also Akin's 4.73 ERA was at AAA.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

i had heard Elias said Lyles did something different in September and that's what they are banking on. Lyles pitched to a 2.87 ERA and 3.55 FIP over his 5 games holding batters to a .215/.292/.346/.638 slash.

So what did he do differently? 

Looking at Baseball Savant, it appears he dropped his fastball usage way down to 29.3% (47.4% in April) and replaced that with a sinker at 17.1% (1.5% in April).

But the biggest change was in his slider where he increased his horizontal movement to 15 inches in September, 3 inches more than in August and 9 inches more than in April. He accordingly increased the usage of his slider to 26.1% (17.8% in August). Batter slashed just .138/.145/.172/.255 against his slider in September. 

the effectiveness of his slider made all his pitches play up a bit as hard hit % and barrel% all went down and swing and miss went up significantly on the slider, curveball, cutter and change.

So if Lyle's slider is for real, the Orioles may have found themselves a bargain. 

  

So you overpay by 5/7 fold for that? Appreciate the detailed info but the price tag still doesn’t add up. Maybe he sells opioids like Matt Harvey. 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

So you overpay by 5/7 fold for that? Appreciate the detailed info but the price tag still doesn’t add up. Maybe he sells opioids like Matt Harvey. 

How is it an overpay if he pitches to a 3.55 ERA (taking his FIP number)? if Elias and his people think he improvements are for real, then it's not an overpay. Do I think he's going to pitch to a 3.55 ERA in the AL East, probably not, but if he can pitch to a 4.50 ERA and make 32 starts and give them 150-180 innings then he's worth that money easy. 

Besides, we know they can afford the contract so who really cares? This comes down to whether their assessment is right or not. That's what we'll find out.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

How is it an overpay if he pitches to a 3.55 ERA (taking his FIP number)? if Elias and his people think he improvements are for real, then it's not an overpay. Do I think he's going to pitch to a 3.55 ERA in the AL East, probably not, but if he can pitch to a 4.50 ERA and make 32 starts and give them 150-180 innings then he's worth that money easy. 

Besides, we know they can afford the contract so who really cares? This comes down to whether their assessment is right or not. That's what we'll find out.

Agreed on that…if, but why that much money? He didn’t exactly have teams lined up for his services, right? We can’t any major league contracts but he’s spending $7m on this guy that wasn’t in high demand? Doesn’t make sense. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

So you overpay by 5/7 fold for that? Appreciate the detailed info but the price tag still doesn’t add up. Maybe he sells opioids like Matt Harvey. 

He did earn $8 mm in 2020 (prorated) and 2021.  So, at least one other team valued him that highly previously.   

[btdart20]

O's should have gone 'underslot' with Lyles so they could have signed Davies too...  $7M to a negative career WAR guy?!  Woof...

I'm fine with them seeing something salvagable and going after a guy they want.  Whatever.  But $7M?  I can't imagine the market bidding being fast/furious driving up the contract.  This is Elias' guy.  

What would you need to see to make this a 'good' signing by Elias,?  Meaning, how would we distinguish between "Lyles got lucky in 2022.  It proves nothing." vs. "Elias recognized talent missed by other."?

A sub 1.20 WHIP?  sub .700 OPS against?  >1 WAR?  Who cares about stats, it all depends on what he can be flipped for?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

O's should have gone 'underslot' with Lyles so they could have signed Davies too...  $7M to a negative career WAR guy?!  Woof...

I'm fine with them seeing something salvagable and going after a guy they want.  Whatever.  But $7M?  I can't imagine the market bidding being fast/furious driving up the contract.  This is Elias' guy.  

What would you need to see to make this a 'good' signing by Elias,?  Meaning, how would we distinguish between "Lyles got lucky in 2022.  It proves nothing." vs. "Elias recognized talent missed by other."?

A sub 1.20 WHIP?  sub .700 OPS against?  >1 WAR?  Who cares about stats, it all depends on what he can be flipped for?

Good peripherals and evidence of a change in pitch mix such as what Tony identified?

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

i had heard Elias said Lyles did something different in September and that's what they are banking on. Lyles pitched to a 2.87 ERA and 3.55 FIP over his 5 games holding batters to a .215/.292/.346/.638 slash.

So what did he do differently? 

Looking at Baseball Savant, it appears he dropped his fastball usage way down to 29.3% (47.4% in April) and replaced that with a sinker at 17.1% (1.5% in April).

But the biggest change was in his slider where he increased his horizontal movement to 15 inches in September, 3 inches more than in August and 9 inches more than in April. He accordingly increased the usage of his slider to 26.1% (17.8% in August). Batter slashed just .138/.145/.172/.255 against his slider in September. 

the effectiveness of his slider made all his pitches play up a bit as hard hit % and barrel% all went down and swing and miss went up significantly on the slider, curveball, cutter and change.

So if Lyle's slider is for real, the Orioles may have found themselves a bargain. 

  

Good info.

I like the reasoning although the sinker plays better with a team that has a good IF defense like Texas had.

They still paid him too much money but at least there was more reasoning to it than just the IP.