What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

You are presenting an alternative approach that may or may not be better than then the approach that the Astros took and that it looks to me that the Orioles are following.  I see the Orioles as being in a similar position in the timeline to where Houston was when they lost 111 games.  Going into the next season they didn't get aggressive in the trade market, they didn't sign a bunch of free agents.  They went into the season with a bunch of young guys with little to no track record, let them play and see what they had.  Guys started to develop and they got to 70 wins.  

The more relevant number to what you are advocating is the number of players they added between their 111 loss and 70 win seasons that ended up contributing to their World Series win and the answer as far as I can tell is zero.  

We know with hindsight that the Astros lack of spending wasn't because their ownership was cheap.  It was a deliberate plan.  And if we assume the Orioles are following a similar plan it's premature to be adding a bunch of salary at this point.  The only problem with the Orioles is that we don't know that ownership will be willing to spend like Houston ownership has been when the time is right.

Ehhh.

Houston is the #8 market in the country.  The Astros' payroll never exceeded 190M in a full season.  I don't think they would have been in the red at any point if they hadn't have gone bare-bones on payroll in the early years.

[John Gibson]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ehhh.

Houston is the #8 market in the country.  The Astros' payroll never exceeded 190M in a full season.  I don't think they would have been in the red at any point if they hadn't have gone bare-bones on payroll in the early years.

My point about the owner wasn't that I think he was saving money to spend later. I agree they wouldn't have been in the red with higher payrolls.  Just that when they were ready to compete he would be willing to spend.  He wasn't one of those owners strictly looking to pocket every penny he could.

The bare-bones payroll approach is more about not dealing with the opportunity cost of tying up roster slots with veterans when no matter how good they play when you aren't contending for a WS and finishing higher in the standings before you are ready to compete makes talent acquisition more difficult (lower picks / less money).   

Why take the risk of loading up a roster with veterans who might help you win an additional 10-15 games before the the young guys develop to the point where those kind of additions could lead to competing for a championship?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They are arguably the best farm system in baseball and are arguably still top 10 of you take away the top 2 and they are about to have the first pick and a huge draft pool.

The inventory is adequate.  This is a cop out.

Teams with far less are making trades and getting real talent.  See Atlanta as the most recent example.

Atlanta and Baltimore are not in the same situation at all.  

[owknows]

Station wagon packed.... cooler's full of sandwiches....

 

Only 1500 miles to Carlsbad Caverns.....

 

400 Miles into the trip....  Sure is hard to drive this car, with a half a dozen kids in the back creaming "ARE WE THERE YET?".......  "I CAN'T BELIEVE WE'RE NOT THERE YET".....  "WHO BOUGHT THIS CAR ANYWAY?  IT'S TOO SLOW".........  OTHER CARS ARE WAY FASTER.......

 

800 Miles into the trip.... "WE NEED TO LEAVE GRANDMA AT THE NEXT REST STOP... SHE'S SLOWING US DOWN."...... "WHY ARE WE GOING TO CARLSBAD CAVERNS ANYWAY?".......  WE SHOULDA JUST STOPPED AT THAT ALLIGATOR FARM 50 MILES AGO...

 

1200 Miles into the trip...  MOM!!!  WILDACRD'S TOUCHING ME!!!!!!! .... I HATE THIS TRIP AND I HATE YOU ALL!!!!

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

Station wagon packed.... cooler's full of sandwiches....

 

Only 1500 miles to Carlsbad Caverns.....

 

400 Miles into the trip....  Sure is hard to drive this car, with a half a dozen kids in the back creaming "ARE WE THERE YET?".......  "I CAN'T BELIEVE WE'RE NOT THERE YET".....  "WHO BOUGHT THIS CAR ANYWAY?  IT'S TOO SLOW".........  OTHER CARS ARE WAY FASTER.......

 

800 Miles into the trip.... "WE NEED TO LEAVE GRANDMA AT THE NEXT REST STOP... SHE'S SLOWING US DOWN."...... "WHY ARE WE GOING TO CARLSBAD CAVERNS ANYWAY?".......  WE SHOULDA JUST STOPPED AT THAT ALLIGATOR FARM 50 MILES AGO...

 

1200 Miles into the trip...  MOM!!!  WILDACRD'S TOUCHING ME!!!!!!! .... I HATE THIS TRIP AND I HATE YOU ALL!!!!

 

[Tony-OH]

Well these are from the other post, but they fit here.

I think this is the year where they try to win, not compete, but win. But we know this team is coming off a 52 win season so even a 20 games improvement would be a lot and that still makes them a 90 loss team this year. No amount of free agent signings will help that.

The only reason to sign a big free agent is if you feel they are the guy you can build around and you have no one in your system that is coming up in the future. 

The Orioles right now can legitimately say they have legitimate starters or high level (close to ready) prospects at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF, two starting pitchers and plenty of potential relievers.

They may have a SS but we still need to see if Henderson (will he get too big or will his hands not improve), Westburg (arm strength concerns as an everyday SS), or Ortiz (will the bat play?) can stick there as an everyday guy.

What this team really needs is some starting pitching and hopefully this year will be the year they find out who if any among Zimmermann, Lowther, T. Wells, A. Wells, Akin, Kremer, Bradish and Baumann can be part of that future rotation.

For those who want big free agents this year, who would you sign as a Free agent this off season and what do you think it does for our record this year?

I just don't see the Orioles ever being a sign Correa kind of team so I just don't think that's realistic. Could they, sure, but again, I don't see it as realistic. 

I do think they should be trying to win this year which in my mind means there are no more Spensor Watkins getting anything more than an emergency start at worse. 

I'd love to see them have a one year stop gap who is better than Gutierrez, but who? With Henderson, Westburg and perhaps Mayo is he can stick at 3B, it doesn't make sense to sign a long term option and besides, there are no good long term options available at 3B. 

Let's say 2023 looks like this:

1B: Mountcastle
2B: Westburg
SS: Ortiz
3B: Henderson
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Cowser
DH Kjerstad/Stowers

SP: Rodriguez
SP: Hall
SP: Means
SP: Rom
SP: The winner of the other guys

Does this look like a team that can't compete? Heck I left out guys like Mayo/Vavra/Prieto/the 1st overall pick this year if he's a college guy/Norby and a few others who could be up and helping out.

So why dump a bunch of money into free agents this year when I don't see anyone but Correa who is a real impact guy at a position of need.

I think this is an important year for the team to assess prospects at high levels of the minors and at the major league level with players like Rutschman, Rodriguez, Stowers and potentially Hall, Ortiz, and Westburg.

We are not jumping from a 52 win team to a contender in one year. This is the transition yea from cellar dweller who is hoping for the 1st overall pick to a team trying to win but not necessarily compete. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Does this look like a team that can't compete? Heck I left out guys like Mayo/Vavra/Prieto/the 1st overall pick this year if he's a college guy/Norby and a few others who could be up and helping out.

 

Don't sleep on J D Mundy.

[UMDTerrapins]

I think a very strong case could be made to trade Mullins for a top starter prospect (and more), or to sign a sign a long term plus starter. I’d also consider trading Means because of where he is age-wise in the rebuild. But would any team trade us a top starter prospect who’s nearly ML ready? Hard to imagine the options would be great, so he probably stays put. I agree with Tony’s assessment that we didn’t endure a years long rebuild to start blocking prospects just as they’re getting close to helping us. We need to break these guys in and see which ones emerge as legit pieces. Our quickest return to winning will come from upgrading the rotation. So if you want to capitalize on our farm system while starting to win games at the same time, I’d trade top assets or break the bank to add another rotation piece. If that means a Jayson Werth-like overpay (yes I know he’s not a starter) that’s what we need to do. 

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, John Gibson said:

I think it's quite simple - look at Houston to understand the plan.

They didn't waste any resources trying to be competitive while they built up the organizations talent level.  They had multiple 100+ loss seasons in a row until some of the young talent arrived and started producing - instead of 100+ losses they got to 70 wins and then started ramping up payroll a bit plugging holes until they were an 80+ win team.  They then exploded the payroll going from 30th to 18th, won the WS and have been willing to spend (consistently in top ten of payroll) since as they've been perennially competitive.

Will the plan work in the AL East and will Elias be allowed to spend when the time is right are open questions but I'm not sure how anyone can look at the Orioles today and not see a franchise trying to implement the Houston plan.

Yeah, the difference is ownership. 

But other than that, it’s a solid take. Whether Elias can execute a similar approach in Baltimore remains to be seen.

[Il BuonO]

 

As Tony noted, this fits here.

First of all, to answer your question, a pitcher. 

Secondly, why isn’t Correa a realistic option? If you see them competing this year, doesn’t he help them do that? And then he’s with the crop they have coming up. Not only that, he becomes an immediate clubhouse presence with a history of winning. 

As far as the guys you have coming up, it doesn’t sound like you are even sure who would take over at SS. So, Correa starts there until one of the kids are ready and then they slide him over to 3B. 

Bottom line, Correa provides leadership and instant offense and defense. 

A transition year doesn’t limit them to just contending. Correa is realistic for any team who wants to compete and legitimizes a team to win down the road.

[Too Tall]

When I first read the Correa rumor about Orioles, I got excited but then realized who I've been rooting for since like forever. So, it became an interesting thought but I knew in my heart it was a fantasy.  Footnote, i still haven't fully digested the last big contract the Orioles signed.  I'd personally like more pitching but who - who would make a real difference? Trade for maybes? We all ready have a bunch of them.

I remember years on here when a number of folks bemoaned the lack of a "plan." "Show me a plan!," they'd post over and over. Well, we have one now that is fairly obvious. You may not like it or understand/agree with its timing, but we have a plan.

There was a Optimistic thread a short time ago. I go back on occasion and read. I like our "maybes" and look forward to what takes this year and beyond. I really don't care what Houston did (and I'm not talking the cheating part). in my opinion, Elias has not lied to us - yet. He's done what he said. Built up the minors and invested in the international talent stream. I don't read him as going to stand for constant losing or non competativeness like some surmise. I don't think he signed on for that. if that is the owner's strategy, I believe Elias will be long gone shortly and that will be our sign.

We had 18 inches of snow three days ago. I can get on my computer in a bit and watch Oriole Baseball - again. "Ain't The Beer Cold?!" 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

 

I remember years on here when a number of folks bemoaned the lack of a "plan." "Show me a plan!," they'd post over and over. Well, we have one now that is fairly obvious. You may not like it or understand/agree with its timing, but we have a plan.

 

I agree they have a plan.

The question is does the plan including taking the spending over say 26th in the league?

If the O's plan includes keeping payroll as low as possible I don't think they can compete.  I don't see the pitching.

[deward]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

He's already told us: establish elite talent pipeline, spend appropriately when it's time, acquire good ML talent from trades. The LF wall is part of an effort to actually be able to finally maybe attract a decent pitcher in free agency, something that has almost never happened in Camden Yards history. 

To me it's not that hard to see what the plan is, mostly because he told it to our face when he was hired, and everything he said he would do so far he's done. 

I think the idea that the LF wall is suddenly going to allow us to sign pitchers that otherwise wouldn't have signed here is a fallacy. Good pitchers will sign here when the team is willing to make the top offer on the market, which hasn't happened under Angelos. I can't think of a single instance where the team made the best offer for a pitcher and he walked away because he was afraid of the park. They're going to have to be willing to pay the price to either trade for a good pitcher or pay the free agency premium, if they want to supplement GRod and Hall.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

I think the idea that the LF wall is suddenly going to allow us to sign pitchers that otherwise wouldn't have signed here is a fallacy. Good pitchers will sign here when the team is willing to make the top offer on the market, which hasn't happened under Angelos. I can't think of a single instance where the team made the best offer for a pitcher and he walked away because he was afraid of the park. They're going to have to be willing to pay the price to either trade for a good pitcher or pay the free agency premium, if they want to supplement GRod and Hall.

I think the reputation of the team physicals are more of a detriment to attracting pitchers.

[deward]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the reputation of the team physicals are more of a detriment to attracting pitchers.

I think you're right. We spent decades complaining about how the team couldn't bring in a big name pitcher because A) Angelos wouldn't pay market rates, and B) Angelos was unreasonable regarding the physicals. Now everyone has suddenly forgotten about that and decided that the ballpark was obviously the REAL problem all along. When/if Elias does sign a star pitcher, it'll be the dump truck full of cash and the perception that the team finally has enough talent to win that gets the job done, no other factors.