The Final Straw? Elias to Trade Mancini

[OriolesMagic83]

20 hours ago, btdart20 said:

  Yep...  I'll also add that with the amount of venom in O's fandom and regarding the CBA, the deck is stacking against any realistic return from Mancini being viewed as anything other than a salary dump.  

Someone on facebook, said the O's should only give up Mancini for a top 50 prospect.  I was tempted to respond, is that top 50 in an organization.

[NCRaven]

If or when the Orioles trade Trey Mancini, I suspect the return will be extremely underwhelming to Orioles fans.  I don't see any way in the baseball world that Mancini gains the O's a top 100, much less a top 50 prospect.  30 year-old, right handed, first baseman/DHs, with only one year of team control, aren't great trade tarkets.  If we were to get a Mychal Givens type of trade return, that's the absolute most that we could expect, IMO.  That's two lower level prospects and one of them pretty fringy, at best.

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

If or when the Orioles trade Trey Mancini, I suspect the return will be extremely underwhelming to Orioles fans.  I don't see any way in the baseball world that Mancini gains the O's a top 100, much less a top 50 prospect.  30 year-old, right handed, first baseman/DHs, with only one year of team control, aren't great trade tarkets.  If we were to get a Mychal Givens type of trade return, that's the absolute most that we could expect, IMO.  That's two lower level prospects and one of them pretty fringy, at best.

The Orioles find a way to get a top 15 prospect in an organization for Mancini it should be considered good work. He has a skill set that is not incredibly hard to duplicate unless he gets back to the 2019 Mancini.

[DrungoHazewood]

35 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

If or when the Orioles trade Trey Mancini, I suspect the return will be extremely underwhelming to Orioles fans.  I don't see any way in the baseball world that Mancini gains the O's a top 100, much less a top 50 prospect.  30 year-old, right handed, first baseman/DHs, with only one year of team control, aren't great trade tarkets.  If we were to get a Mychal Givens type of trade return, that's the absolute most that we could expect, IMO.  That's two lower level prospects and one of them pretty fringy, at best.

One year of team control at something like $8M.  So roughly one win of expected surplus value.  Unless someone is offering up above-market returns because they really need a 1B/DH right now, I'd almost rather keep him. What's the current state of compensation for lost free agents?  Do you get anything back, or did the new CBA quash that?

[NCRaven]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

One year of team control at something like $8M.  So roughly one win of expected surplus value.  Unless someone is offering up above-market returns because they really need a 1B/DH right now, I'd almost rather keep him. What's the current state of compensation for lost free agents?  Do you get anything back, or did the new CBA quash that?

Weren't changes to free agency contingent on whether or not an international draft was agreed to later this summer?

[SteveA]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

One year of team control at something like $8M.  So roughly one win of expected surplus value.  Unless someone is offering up above-market returns because they really need a 1B/DH right now, I'd almost rather keep him. What's the current state of compensation for lost free agents?  Do you get anything back, or did the new CBA quash that?

There was only compensation for guys getting QOs, right?   And I don't think we'd offer Trey a QO.  So isn't that a moot point?

And no, I am not sure of the answer to your question.  As @NCRavenpoints out, it's still up in the air based on the international draft thing.

[UMDTerrapins]

I wouldn’t mind if they brought in a young reliever who profiles for late inning/possible future closer. That would prove much more valuable to our needs than a Terrin Vavra level prospect. 

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Weren't changes to free agency contingent on whether or not an international draft was agreed to later this summer?

That appears to be the case. Early rumor was QO system had been eliminated but they walked that back somewhat.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/mlb-lockout-ends-owners-players-agree-new-cba

— MLB and the union will negotiate on a potential international draft. If they reach an agreement by July 25, draft pick compensation attached to lost top free agents will be eliminated. Otherwise, both systems will remain status quo. 

 

[yark14]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

One year of team control at something like $8M.  So roughly one win of expected surplus value.  Unless someone is offering up above-market returns because they really need a 1B/DH right now, I'd almost rather keep him. What's the current state of compensation for lost free agents?  Do you get anything back, or did the new CBA quash that?

I see no reason why not to sign him to a nice 4 year contract (perhaps $60mm total?).  We likely won't be spending any money for another 2 years anyways.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, yark14 said:

I see no reason why not to sign him to a nice 4 year contract (perhaps $60mm total?).  We likely won't be spending any money for another 2 years anyways.

That’s a pretty awful contract.  

[yark14]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s a pretty awful contract.  

Why so?  It's the Angelos' money, not ours.  Otherwise they wouldn't spend that money.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, yark14 said:

Why so?  It's the Angelos' money, not ours.  Otherwise they wouldn't spend that money.

I would rather see then buy a yacht than give Mancini that contract and block a future roster spot.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

That appears to be the case. Early rumor was QO system had been eliminated but they walked that back somewhat.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/mlb-lockout-ends-owners-players-agree-new-cba

— MLB and the union will negotiate on a potential international draft. If they reach an agreement by July 25, draft pick compensation attached to lost top free agents will be eliminated. Otherwise, both systems will remain status quo. 

 

No way the O's risk hitting him with a QO.

[yark14]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would rather see then buy a yacht than give Mancini that contract and block a future roster spot.

I'd rather bleed their pockets dry.  Sign him to a front-loaded contract so in years 3+4 he's easier to DFA or trade if his production declines.

Edited March 31, 2022 by yark14

[Ruzious]

14 hours ago, yark14 said:

I see no reason why not to sign him to a nice 4 year contract (perhaps $60mm total?).  We likely won't be spending any money for another 2 years anyways.

That's a very high risk/very low reward idea.  Usually, you want to go the opposite way - low risk/high reward.