Ellis has contract selected/Stewart DFA'd/Diplan optioned

[emmett16]

I don't think he will get claimed and there is no space in AAA.   Long Island Ducks could potentially make some room.  

[bobmc]

19 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well he is a zero tool player that was selected in the first round. It was a wasted pick, and even worse he was allowed to hang in the organization for 4+ years just because someone mistakenly used a first round pick on him. I was correct on the day of the draft when I said something to the effect that you don't waste a first round pick on a slow fat corner outfielder who can't throw and hits with such a pronounced crouch that they immediately set about to change his batting mechanics.

Well he was DL (not IL)  Hall's favorite player at FSU, so there is that!    And Bravo!  

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

I think DJ’s “positive value” is negligible and comparable to a high schooler that washed out in A ball.  And then there is the opportunity cost of continuing to put him out there instead of giving someone else a chance.

So you think DJ and Josh Hart are the same as draft picks?

Interesting take....

[Hazmat]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you think DJ and Josh Hart are the same as draft picks?

Interesting take....

Your quote: 

"Yep they totally should have picked some toolsy high schooler that would have washed out in A ball instead of someone that provided positive value at the ML level."

There are many ways to compare draft picks but you emphasized Stewart's "positive value at the ML level."  Stewart has a career WAR of 0.5.  According to Fangraph's, 0 - 1 career WAR is considered "Scrub" level.  Sure, technically it is positive as in > 0, but it's a weak argument.  I say there's not much difference in overall value to the Orioles between Stewart and toolsy high schooler that washed out in A ball.  

Perhaps another way to look at it is to ask, would you rather have a player wash out in the minors so the organization can just move on or for the player to be just good enough to make it to the majors (at least make it to the O's, maybe not any other teams) and play at a scrub level for several years before the org finally severs ties?  Which scenario is better for the organization?

 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I don't think he will get claimed and there is no space in AAA.   Long Island Ducks could potentially make some room.  

He really ought to go to Japan and ops 1000 and make some money for a few years.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Your quote: 

"Yep they totally should have picked some toolsy high schooler that would have washed out in A ball instead of someone that provided positive value at the ML level."

There are many ways to compare draft picks but you emphasized Stewart's "positive value at the ML level."  Stewart has a career WAR of 0.5.  According to Fangraph's, 0 - 1 career WAR is considered "Scrub" level.  Sure, technically it is positive as in > 0, but it's a weak argument.  I say there's not much difference in overall value to the Orioles between Stewart and toolsy high schooler that washed out in A ball.  

Perhaps another way to look at it is to ask, would you rather have a player wash out in the minors so the organization can just move on or for the player to be just good enough to make it to the majors (at least make it to the O's, maybe not any other teams) and play at a scrub level for several years before the org finally severs ties?  Which scenario is better for the organization?

 

We are covering old ground here, but there have been 57 players chosen 25th overall, which is where we drafted Stewart.   Stewart’s 0.5 rWAR ranks 20th among those 57.   23 of them never made the majors (some who were drafted in the last few years may still make it).    

With that data, I don’t consider Stewart to be either a great success or a terrible failure.   He was better than most players drafted in that spot, but not really a meaningful contributor.   I would have hoped for better, and easily could have gotten worse.   

And, the final story may not be written.  

 

[Hazmat]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are covering old ground here, but there have been 57 players chosen 25th overall, which is where we drafted Stewart.   Stewart’s 0.5 rWAR ranks 20th among those 57.   23 of them never made the majors (some who were drafted in the last few years may still make it).    

With that data, I don’t consider Stewart to be either a great success or a terrible failure.   He was better than most players drafted in that spot, but not really a meaningful contributor.   I would have hoped for better, and easily could have gotten worse.   

And, the final story may not be written.  

 

To be clear, I never commented on what I thought of Stewart as a draft pick.  My comment had to do with the overall value he provided to the Orioles organization.

[interloper]

18 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He really ought to go to Japan and ops 1000 and make some money for a few years.

100%. He'd kill it over there with the lack of velocity, which has been one of his problems. 

[Camden_yardbird]

15 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I never thought Stewart was a good pick for a variety of reasons but fairly confident he will get claimed just b/c he hasn’t gotten an extended look and has pop, so with the DH in the NL, I bet he goes there. 

When you pick a guy and your first order of business is a complete overhaul of his swing.  He had one of the worst stances in college.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

He really ought to go to Japan and ops 1000 and make some money for a few years.

He could struggle in Japan, maybe KBO?

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

We are covering old ground here, but there have been 57 players chosen 25th overall, which is where we drafted Stewart.   Stewart’s 0.5 rWAR ranks 20th among those 57.   23 of them never made the majors (some who were drafted in the last few years may still make it).    

With that data, I don’t consider Stewart to be either a great success or a terrible failure.   He was better than most players drafted in that spot, but not really a meaningful contributor.   I would have hoped for better, and easily could have gotten worse.   

And, the final story may not be written.  

 

This misses the point

Alot of guys fail because they don't develop or realize their potential

Stewart never had any potential, as he never had projectable MLB tools

He was slow, had an extremely weak arm, couldn't catch a fly ball, didn't display prodigious power. The claim was that his projectable skill was OBP, but it is a fools errand to project a college hitter with a high OBP to continue to have a high OBP in the majors. 

A first round pick should have potential.

[OriolesMagic83]

The O's basically selected Mark Trumbo lite.  That's not the upside you want in a first round pick.  Like when the O's selected Grenier who seemed to have the upside of a utility player.  The goal of a first round pick shouldn't be getting backup players, platoon players and middle relievers.  There's plenty of time for those picks in the 10th round or later.

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

5 call ups a season for a player and Elias is burning through some pretty quick here in the first two weeks.  Will be interesting if that ever comes into play.

They don't count until May.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

This misses the point

Alot of guys fail because they don't develop or realize their potential

Stewart never had any potential, as he never had projectable MLB tools

He was slow, had an extremely weak arm, couldn't catch a fly ball, didn't display prodigious power. The claim was that his projectable skill was OBP, but it is a fools errand to project a college hitter with a high OBP to continue to have a high OBP in the majors. 

A first round pick should have potential.

Well, he did have a good OBP in the majors.  .327 compared to league averages between .317-.323 during his career.   That’s despite the fact that his hit tool has been a little disappointing.   

To me, his defense has been worse than I expected based on scouting reports.  I didn’t expect him to be plus, more like average to fringe average.   The weak arm was known.   His speed ranked slightly above average his first two years, slightly below average the last two.  

I certainly hoped he could be more productive than he has been.   

 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well he is a zero tool player that was selected in the first round. It was a wasted pick, and even worse he was allowed to hang in the organization for 4+ years just because someone mistakenly used a first round pick on him. I was correct on the day of the draft when I said something to the effect that you don't waste a first round pick on a slow fat corner outfielder who can't throw and hits with such a pronounced crouch that they immediately set about to change his batting mechanics.

You're not really wrong, but if you look at that 1st round, it was a really weak draft. Austin Riley would have been a nice pick for sure, but the truth is, unless you think a guy has a very special bat, you can't take a guy in the first round with no other playable tools.

As for Stewart, he had his opportunities and either struggled or battled injuries. Since that Barry Bonds like hot steak in 2020, Stewart has slashed .189/.314/.340/.654 in 369 PAs. At the same time his defense had slipped to the point that he became a liability to not only the team, but to himself out there in the outfield.

I will be surprised if someone claims him as most teams aren't looking for a below average hitting DH.