Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some folks think there is merit in players crushing inferior opposition.

I think more is learned in failure than in easy successes. 

I can’t tell if you are:

1.  Making a general statement that may or may not apply to Henderson;

2.  Critiquing how Henderson has been handled to date; or

3. Anticipating how you think Henderson will be handled going forward.  

With respect to no. 2, here’s how Henderson has progressed:

Low A: 35 games, 157 PA, .944 OPS

Hi A: 65 games, 289 PA, .775 OPS

AA: 52 games, 225 PA, .987 OPS

AAA: 19 games, 87 PA, 1.077 OPS

I don’t see that the O’s have let any grass grow under Henderson’s feet.   He has yet to spend more than half a season at any level.   So to me, this critique (if it is intended to be one) really is invalid with respect to how Henderson has been handled up to now.  

As to what happens next, that remains to be seen.  I doubt you’ll see Henderson playing in Norfolk in September with a 1.000+ OPS, or even .900+.   But we’ll see.


 

[LTO's]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would a GM think a 20 year old kid who is completely dominating the upper minors, walking a lot, not K’ing much, etc…would be completely unplayable?

First of all, it's a possibility that this would happen even if they don't think it would.  It's on the individual evaluators to determine the point at which that risk is the lowest. This has literally just happened to two top 10 prospects who were also in their very early 20s and dominating upper minors pitching. The landscape of baseball is continuing to change and even the very top prospects in baseball are coming and struggling against big league pitching. 

What I'm saying is, if Henderson got the call up and was completely unplayable like the aforementioned players, it's not good for the team or the player. It's a failure in player development to have that happen. I would expect/hope Elias and co. are not being swayed by a cycle or a 19 game sample in AAA and will instead find the balance between service manipulation and getting more at bats against high level pitching in a less pressure filled environment. This is why I think late Aug/September would be a great target for his debut. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

First of all, it's a possibility that this would happen even if they don't think it would.  It's on the individual evaluators to determine the point at which that risk is the lowest. This has literally just happened to two top 10 prospects who were also in their very early 20s and dominating upper minors pitching. The landscape of baseball is continuing to change and even the very top prospects in baseball are coming and struggling against big league pitching. 

What I'm saying is, if Henderson got the call up and was completely unplayable like the aforementioned players, it's not good for the team or the player. It's a failure in player development to have that happen. I would expect/hope Elias and co. are not being swayed by a cycle or a 19 game sample in AAA and will instead find the balance between service manipulation and getting more at bats against high level pitching in a less pressure filled environment. This is why I think late Aug/September would be a great target for his debut. 

How is it a failure in player development if the player has shown he isn’t being challenged in the minors and they bring him up?  That’s not a failure on player development.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I can’t tell if you are:

1.  Making a general statement that may or may not apply to Henderson;

2.  Critiquing how Henderson has been handled to date; or

3. Anticipating how you think Henderson will be handled going forward.  

 

 

1.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you'd have him locked into a team friendly deal for eight more seasons after this one.

Do you not like long term team friendly deals for young players?

I like cheap contracts for productive players, but I don't pretend to believe in fairy tales or look into the future by promising a kid who never hit above A+ ball a team friendly ten year contract and rush him to the  major leagues!

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What they should be gaging is, what are we looking for to determine if a player is ready or not and if they hit those markers, we bring them up.

And I love how people keep talking about his age as if that should be something against him.  It’s just a foolish thought.  Plenty of guys have come up at his age and done well or, at least, held their own.

That seems an overly narrow method of determining promotions. Like .850 for a month gets a guy promoted but .840 does not? Just using metrics that way, Gunnar probably starts '21 in A+ and Westburg is still in AA. I don't think guys should be held back or promoted just based on hitting certain numbers. You also want time to evaluate them, give them experience at each level, figure out what position they will play, work on defense, etc. That will work for and against promotion depending on how their numbers square with your assessment. 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

1.

You are much more terse than I am!

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You are much more terse than I am!

I shift from laconic to verbose depending on my mood.

In that case I felt nothing else was needed.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

How is it a failure in player development if the player has shown he isn’t being challenged in the minors and they bring him up?

It's a failure if the player is called up and is so bad they have to be demoted back down to the minors. For a top prospect to come up, OPS under .550 or so, strike out a ton and get demoted, that's a failure. And it has has happened to many top prospects recently. The point is, Elias and co. need to be making decisions on when to promote prospects not based on fan clamoring or counting stats in a 19 game sample.  I'm saying this as someone who will be disappointed if Henderson doesn't at least get some playing time this year. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's a failure if the player is called up and is so bad they have to be demoted back down to the minors. For a top prospect to come up, OPS under .550 or so, strike out a ton and get demoted, that's a failure. And it has has happened to many top prospects recently. The point is, Elias and co. need to be making decisions on when to promote prospects not based on fan clamoring or counting stats in a 19 game sample.  I'm saying this as someone who will be disappointed if Henderson doesn't at least get some playing time this year. 

Sure.

I'd argue that counting stats shouldn't be given much weight in the process.

I'd also argue that prospects struggling in MLB debuts are not necessarily caused by aggressive promoting. 

Most folks think Joey Bart was rushed and maybe he was.  Do you think more time in the minors is going to solve his issues with 95+ fastballs?

 

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That seems an overly narrow method of determining promotions. Like .850 for a month gets a guy promoted but .840 does not? Just using metrics that way, Gunnar probably starts '21 in A+ and Westburg is still in AA. I don't think guys should be held back or promoted just based on hitting certain numbers. You also want time to evaluate them, give them experience at each level, figure out what position they will play, work on defense, etc. That will work for and against promotion depending on how their numbers square with your assessment. 

I have no idea what this post has to do with mine that quoted.  I never once mentioned any stats whatsoever. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's a failure if the player is called up and is so bad they have to be demoted back down to the minors. For a top prospect to come up, OPS under .550 or so, strike out a ton and get demoted, that's a failure. And it has has happened to many top prospects recently. The point is, Elias and co. need to be making decisions on when to promote prospects not based on fan clamoring or counting stats in a 19 game sample.  I'm saying this as someone who will be disappointed if Henderson doesn't at least get some playing time this year. 

Well obviously they don’t promote him based on counting stats or fans desire.  Whoever said they should?

So let me ask you something..if Henderson is called up in a month and is still tearing up AAA and is showing a high walk rate, good bat to ball skills, etc..and he struggles, that is to you a failure on PD?  At what point is it a failure on the player?

[RZNJ]

He sounds really, really mature and cerebral when it comes to baseball and probably just in general. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/gunnar-henderson-hits-for-cycle-at-triple-a

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I have no idea what this post has to do with mine that quoted.  I never once mentioned any stats whatsoever. 

What did you mean by "if they hit those markers, bring them up"?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What did you mean by "if they hit those markers, bring them up"?

There are lots of things a team looks for that has zero to do with stats.  Do you think Norby and Mayo just got promoted because they were tearing the cover off the ball?

No, they were looking for other things…defense, maturity, how are you approaching at bats, what pitches are you swinging at, etc…there are tons of things.