Mullins since August 1 2021

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I think they are worried about it, because they haven't been charging Major League prices for most of this year, they have been charging 1992 prices!

If they expect people to pay 2022 prices, trading decent players with less than 4 years of service time is risky in terms of angering the fans that are still attending the games.

Yea that’s much of a concern.  Fans aren’t going to stop coming because you traded Mullins.  In fact, more fans will come because of GRod, Adley, etc…Also, the large majority of ticket sales have already occurred.

[eddie83]

Mullins aside the Orioles are going to have to be willing to have players go thru arbitration and get more expensive during a competitive cycle.
 

Mullins to me is the kind of a guy the 2017 Orioles should have dealt. If he winds up being a 3 win player do we have the inventory to replace that in 2024 nevermind 23?

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that’s much of a concern.  Fans aren’t going to stop coming because you traded Mullins.  In fact, more fans will come because of GRod, Adley, etc…Also, the large majority of ticket sales have already occurred.

The second the fans are back in contend mode the patience will thin out. It’s great seeing rookies compete on a 100 loss team. If a rookie doesn’t produce on a team trying to win they need to be replaced. 
 

Adley and GRod are elite talents. I just don’t see outside of them who this team can definitely rely on in 23. I have high hopes for Gunnar but he is a kid. The other bats are probably 1.5 years away. If they all pan out and you still have Mullins that’s a good thing not a bad one. You would really being banking on the young talent developing quickly as well as obviously winning the trade. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Mullins aside the Orioles are going to have to be willing to have players go thru arbitration and get more expensive during a competitive cycle.
 

Mullins to me is the kind of a guy the 2017 Orioles should have dealt. If he winds up being a 3 win player do we have the inventory to replace that in 2024 nevermind 23?

Yes but is Mullins that guy?  Realistically, this team is, at best, a fringe WC contender in 2023. (if the team decides they care and really spends, that could change)

So, are you keeping Mullins around for 2024 and 2025, when you are legit contenders?  While his salary won't matter overall, is his play on the field going to justify it?  I would say, by WAR standards, he should be worth 7-12M, which means it should justify it.  The question is, will you want to pay that for the production he provides?  And btw, if they draft Jones, he should be the everyday CFer by 2025.  If they do the smart thing and draft him, that could change this thought process some.

For me, its all about the return.  If you can nab at least one top flight starting player who is young and has ML control for 6+ years, thats a deal you make.  Its very possible you are better in 2023 making that trade.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

The second the fans are back in contend mode the patience will thin out. It’s great seeing rookies compete on a 100 loss team. If a rookie doesn’t produce on a team trying to win they need to be replaced. 
 

Adley and GRod are elite talents. I just don’t see outside of them who this team can definitely rely on in 23. I have high hopes for Gunnar but he is a kid. The other bats are probably 1.5 years away. If they all pan out and you still have Mullins that’s a good thing not a bad one. You would really being banking on the young talent developing quickly as well as obviously winning the trade. 

They are banking on that either way.  Mullins isn't making or breaking the team.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but is Mullins that guy?  Realistically, this team is, at best, a fringe WC contender in 2023. (if the team decides they care and really spends, that could change)

So, are you keeping Mullins around for 2024 and 2025, when you are legit contenders?  While his salary won't matter overall, is his play on the field going to justify it?  I would say, by WAR standards, he should be worth 7-12M, which means it should justify it.  The question is, will you want to pay that for the production he provides?  And btw, if they draft Jones, he should be the everyday CFer by 2025.  If they do the smart thing and draft him, that could change this thought process some.

For me, its all about the return.  If you can nab at least one top flight starting player who is young and has ML control for 6+ years, thats a deal you make.  Its very possible you are better in 2023 making that trade.  

Sure if the deal fits then do it. 
 

At the end of the day the key is whether or not Mullins keeps playing well. If you have big concerns he is falling off a cliff that’s one thing. Keeping him also allows you to hedge your bets. If he is playing well in 2024 and the kids are playing well it’s a nice problem to have. 
 

I still wonder who they will pick but that’s another conversation. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are banking on that either way.  Mullins isn't making or breaking the team.

Sure they are.  I agree he isn’t making or breaking the team.  
 

With the OF though I see questions. Cowser I think is legit, that said he is doing ok at A ball as a college player. It’s early and there are some good signs. To me Stowers is the positional equivalent of a pitcher who has a good arm. You can hope with someone like that but I’m not counting on anything. Who knows about Kjerstad at this point. We have some other OF’s with some promise. 
 

My argument would be Mullins still has 3 years after this year and you can revisit this topic next year with much more knowledge on your side. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Mullins isn't even arb eligible until after this season, and isn't a free agent until 2026.  The so-obvious-you-don't-need-to-state-it disclaimer is, yes, if they get an awesome offer you listen.  But there's no rush to either trade or extend him. He's on pace for about a 3-win season.  If you'd told me 18 months ago that was happening I'd be overjoyed.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mullins isn't even arb eligible until after this season, and isn't a free agent until 2026.  The so-obvious-you-don't-need-to-state-it disclaimer is, yes, if they get an awesome offer you listen.  But there's no rush to either trade or extend him. He's on pace for about a 3-win season.  If you'd told me 18 months ago that was happening I'd be overjoyed.

Yep..let him have that 3 WAR season elsewhere.  And I’m not excited about a 3 WAR player with a sub 700 OPS(with a poor BA/OBP) because I have questions about his defense in CF as he gets closer to 30 and how well his speed and range hold up.  

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..let him have that 3 WAR season elsewhere.  And I’m not excited about a 3 WAR player with a sub 700 OPS(with a poor BA/OBP) because I have questions about his defense in CF as he gets closer to 30 and how well his speed and range hold up.  

Aren't you the one who thinks it's almost criminal to just keep winning 50 or 60 games a year, year after year?  If they trade Mullins tomorrow the chances are they just punted two or three 2022 wins when they replace him with someone like McKenna.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Aren't you the one who thinks it's almost criminal to just keep winning 50 or 60 games a year, year after year?  If they trade Mullins tomorrow the chances are they just punted two or three 2022 wins when they replace him with someone like McKenna.

The team went into the season not caring about wins.  So no, I don’t care about winning 65 or 67 games.  I would rather get the return to make the team better when they actually do care about winning.

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Even looking at next year, It doesn’t look like Cowser or Kjerstad will be ready.   That couid change, but that’s how it looks at the moment.  

The disappointment of Cowser this year really puts a kink in the trading of outfielders. Really Stowers is the only guy close that's a potential everyday regular. I'm still on the fence on Haskins but I think he looks more like a McKenna type 4th outfielder than a regular. 

The good news is that Hays (26), Mullins (27) and Santander (27) are just entering their prime and should have 3-4 years left which means all could be part of a winning team. Saying that, you have to open to offers particularly for Santander in my opinion since Stowers could be his replacement.

As for Mullins, Sports Guy showed the numbers since August of last year so this is more than a slump. I'll have to look at Baseball Savant, but just from watching the games it seems like they've found a hole on the inside part of the plate with him and are busting there with hard stuff. 

One thing to remember that despite the down year with the offense so far, he's still been worth 1.3 WAR through the first two months, so he's still an above average player. 

He does need to be more patient though. That walk percentage has gone down, but the biggest issue is he's just not doing the same damage to the pitches he does swing at. Everything is down from EV to hard hit and his "heart of the plate" swing/take is -5 runs which means he not doing the damage he should on hittable pitches.

Hopefully he'll break out soon.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The team went into the season not caring about wins.  So no, I don’t care about winning 65 or 67 games.  I would rather get the return to make the team better when they actually do care about winning.

I think that when you start to tentatively climb back towards respectability you need to be more judicious in trading everyone with current value for players who might be good in 2-3 years.  Especially players like Mullins who would still be under team control and probably of some value in 2-3 years.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think that when you start to tentatively climb back towards respectability you need to be more judicious in trading everyone with current value for players who might be good in 2-3 years.  Especially players like Mullins who would still be under team control and probably of some value in 2-3 years.

Some truth to that..I just have my doubts on Mullins being a player worth paying arb 2 and arb 3 salaries as he approaches 30 and if we can het high end pitching or something along those lines, that’s better for us long term imo.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The team went into the season not caring about wins.  So no, I don’t care about winning 65 or 67 games.  I would rather get the return to make the team better when they actually do care about winning.

It really depends on the return. No way do I want some more Dominican Lottery tickets kinds of trades. Honestly, if you look at the trades Elias has made, he hasn't exactly found a true nugget yet so I'm not excited about him trading off vets for prospects. 

Now maybe he will better at prospects for prospects kinds of trades, but Bradish looks like the best guy he acquired and I'm still not convinced he's going to be starter at the big league level long term. 

Either way, I'm fine with trading Mancini, Santander or even Mullins if the return was right, but it needs to be for high level (AA/AAA) prospects and not lottery tickets.