Heston Kjerstad 2022

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have no illusions that Kjerstad is going to be a CF in our system.  But I’ve seen fairly divergent reports about his speed, and this suggests he’s not as slow-footed as some people seem to think.  (Note: Tony gave him a 55 FV on speed last year, so that’s consistent with giving him some work in CF.  Longenhagen  gave him a current grade of 50, future grade of 40.   I remember some 40 grades being thrown around on 2020 draft day, but also some 50’s.)

I'd like that grade back after watching him this year. Remember, that was a grade based off his reports prior to all of his issues. I was basing that off what I saw in videos in college, now I think he's probably a 40/45 runner, but I will time him a few time in videos and get a real value soon.

[LookinUp]

12 hours ago, WI O’s Fan said:

He reminds me of Will Clark in his early years.  Same type of buggy whip swing going the other way.

Interesting to think of him as a Will Clark-like future 1b of the Os.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd like that grade back after watching him this year. Remember, that was a grade based off his reports prior to all of his issues. I was basing that off what I saw in videos in college, now I think he's probably a 40/45 runner, but I will time him a few time in videos and get a real value soon.

Well, you gave him a current grade of ????, future grade of 55.   So, the uncertainty of his current speed was made clear in your grade, even though you were more bullish on his future grade.   Obviously you’ve got a better basis for grades now.  

But how slow can he be if they’re giving him reps in CF?   I realize it’s just the Fall League, but still, it feels like they wouldn’t waste his time if he were Trey Mancini out there.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Interesting to think of him as a Will Clark-like future 1b of the Os.

Will Clark was in the majors at 22 and finishing top 5 in the MVP voting at 23 but sure, that's a reasonable comp.

[LookinUp]

I mean, Will Clark wasn’t drafted, didn’t get a massive heart issue and live through Covid. Of course it’s not a direct comp.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I mean, Will Clark wasn’t drafted, didn’t get a massive heart issue and live through Covid. Of course it’s not a direct comp.

It's just funny how guys get comped to HoF and near HoF players.

 

[LookinUp]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It's just funny how guys get comped to HoF and near HoF players.

 

“He reminds me of” and “it’s interesting to think about”, aren’t exactly direct comps.

[LookinUp]

And I can totally see how people can see. Will Clark when they look at him. But Clark was a smooth customer at first base and obviously had an amazing swing. I highly doubt Heston is anything like that even if he lives up to the hope.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

“He reminds me of” and “it’s interesting to think about”, aren’t exactly direct comps.

I didn't say direct comp.

Like I said it's funny to me.

You hardly ever see anyone compared to the David Seguis of the baseball world.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, you gave him a current grade of ????, future grade of 55.   So, the uncertainty of his current speed was made clear in your grade, even though you were more bullish on his future grade.   Obviously you’ve got a better basis for grades now.  

But how slow can he be if they’re giving him reps in CF?   I realize it’s just the Fall League, but still, it feels like they wouldn’t waste his time if he were Trey Mancini out there.  
 

We're kinda talking this is no two different threads, but since this is his thread, I'll try and keep my comments here.

As I said in the other thread his 55 FV on his speed was based on the video I saw of him in college and I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised I went that high. Now, I've had a lot of time to watch him this year and there is no way I think he could effectively play CF unless he has some kind of phenomenal jump and route numbers that I don't know about. 

Again, I haven't timed him yet but he looks slower to me than Stowers who the Orioles gave 58 CF starts to despite his having 43 percentile sprint speed at the major league level upon arrival.

So I guess what I'm saying is don't pay a ton of attention to where the Orioles play their prospects because they have really taken some kind of mad hatter approach to developing position players by rarely only playing them at the position they most likely will play at the major league level. 

I'm not a fan of this approach personally unless you are looking at a player to provide versatility at the major league level. I could see Westburg becoming a right-handed super utility so it makes sense for him to play all over, but I would have preferred that Henderson had played mostly 3B so he could focus on getting better.

If they think Kjerstad is a RF, play him RF. If they think he's a 1B, start playing him there so he gets experience. 

Lastly, the Orioles provide the positions where they want their prospects played in the AFL but they will give additional positions in case there is a need. This might just be a case where they needed a CF and Kjerstad had it down as an alternative position. It's worth noting that he never played one game in CF in the minors or college.

 

[Frobby]

Thanks, @Tony-OH.  On a related subject, any idea when you plan to start releasing your top 30 this year?  Can’t wait!

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's just funny how guys get comped to HoF and near HoF players.

 

Larry Sheets isn't on the edge of most people's minds.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't say direct comp.

Like I said it's funny to me.

You hardly ever see anyone compared to the David Seguis of the baseball world.

I’d be pretty happy if Kjerstad had David Segui’s career.  He’s already tracked the “not playing for health reasons” part of that comp.  Now he just needs comparable production when healthy.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’d be pretty happy if Kjerstad had David Segui’s career.  He’s already tracked the “not playing for health reasons” part of that comp.  Now he just needs comparable production when healthy.  

Sure, I wasn't being insulting when I used Segui.  He had a 15 year career.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, I wasn't being insulting when I used Segui.  He had a 15 year career.

I understood.  The odds of Kjerstad having a career comparable to Segui (10.4 rWAR) are a lot better than him being comparable to Clark (56.5 rWAR).   It is kind of interesting to compare the two careers.   Both played 15 seasons, but Clark played in 36% more games and had 52% more PA.   Segui was a .291/.359/.443 hitter, Clark .302/.384/.497.   I think Kjerstad has more power than Segui, but we’ll have to see about the OBP skills.