And the Orioles All Star is...

[Spy Fox]

I think Trey wouldn't make it if the selection were right now.

You have Ohtani and Yordan as locks at DH (Yordan plays more LF than I realized, but he's DH on the ballot). You have Ty France and Vlad Jr. as near-locks from 1b. And you have Luis Arraez hitting .362 mostly as a 1b, and JD Martinez hitting .347 mostly as a DH. Then you get into Trey's borderline tier with other guys like Jose Abreu and Anthony Rizzo, though I'd take Trey above those other two this year. 

Looking at the AL as a whole, I think Lopez would be likely, Hays would be maybe, and Mancini would be doubtful but possible. But of course these things aren't always logical, and there's most of a month left to play before selection day. 

[Just Regular]

Big night last night for Lopez in the race with Hays and Mancini.   If the ERA stays mostly intact another month, he looks like a pretty strong favorite over the Bats.

[sportsfan8703]

I wouldn’t discount that Mancini is a previous AS, our most recognizable player, a willing HR derby participant, and a feel good story. 

[TommyPickles]

I think Lopez is most likely. 

Followed by Mancini.

Then Hays.

Then Perez. 

Hays doesn't have the name recognition of Mancini. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I wouldn’t discount that Mancini is a previous AS, our most recognizable player, a willing HR derby participant, and a feel good story. 

Lopez is a feel good story too.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I wouldn’t discount that Mancini is a previous AS, our most recognizable player, a willing HR derby participant, and a feel good story. 

Don't have to be an All-Star to be a HR participant. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lopez is a feel good story too.

It's a pity pick, they are going to use the selection to fill out the roster.

It's generally easier to fit in a bullpen guy.

[sportsfan8703]

Vlad Jr. will likely be voted in. Just taking a quick look at 1B around the AL and only Ty France has significantly better numbers that Mancini. Rizzo is struggling. 

[Spy Fox]

Checking in on this with a week of games left to play before selection, as the O's have a number of guys near the bubble. 

Jorge Lopez

If he converts the two MIN saves, he's a shoo-in. As is, I think he's still in but less decisively. 

• T-8th in saves with 13
• 3rd in ERA among primary closers (10+ saves) with a 2.69
• 1st in IP among primary closers with 37.1
• Other contenders: Clase, Holmes, Romano, Soto (and Soto is pretty much the only defensible all-star in Detroit)

Austin Hays

A mini-slump has dropped Hays in the OF rankings since a mid-June peak.  He's in or near the Top 10 AL outfielders in most categories, but all these guys are ahead of him almost everywhere: Judge, Trout, Tucker, Alvarez, Rodriguez, Stanton, Garcia. Then there's Benintendi who is hitting .308 and seems like the most deserving Royal. I think Hays is on the outside looking in with this competition. 

Trey Mancini or Ryan Mountcastle

Mancini was in this conversation for a while, but I'd contend Mountcastle has passed Hays and Mancini as the 2nd most likely Oriole to be elected. Among qualifying 1b he's:

• 2nd in SLG with .506
• 3rd in HRs with 14
• 4th in AVG and RBI .283 and 40. 

It's a sorta weak year for 1b. Ty France and Vlad should be in. Then there's Arraez who probably counts as the game's super-utility guy, Short-Porch Rizzo who might have too many other All Stars on his team, and Abreu who is better than Mountcastle but do the voting players and managers understand that? Put it all together and I wouldn't personally pick Mountcastle, but he's surprisingly defensible. 

Tyler Wells

I thought I'd at least check. It's a long shot but at 7-4, 3.09, if he has one more good start and some others don't, maybe he makes it as a substitute for a pitcher who declines the invite. He's 15th in ERA among guys with 70+ IP. McClanahan, Verlander, Manoah, Perez, Cortes, Cease, Gilbert, Valdez, Ohtani, Wacha are your top 10 there which sounds a lot like this year's AL staff, give or take a Gausman/Cole. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I think as I have thought all year.

The O's get the mandatory pity selection and it's going to be whomever fills out the roster the best.

[waroriole]

Hays or Mountcastle is most likely.
I wouldn’t rule out Felix Bautista. He’s the kind of player who should be on the All Star stage. 1.39 ERA and 38 Ks in 32.1 IP. 

[NCRaven]

It’ll be a reliever.  Too many position players on better teams.

[Brooks The Great]

It should be Hays, because of his defensive value and overall play. Lopez has taken himself out of the running at the moment. He needs a break in lower leverage situations to get himself right, so that should shut his window for All-Star consideration for a little bit.

[Roll Tide]

On 6/14/2022 at 11:36 PM, JimGinSP said:

Since no player will be voted in, it’s left to these rules apparently.  https://www.mlb.com/news/all-star-game-roster-rules-faq-c239654292
Mancini would seem to be the front runner based upon his current performance, veteran status and of course compelling life story.  Still time for Hays and Lopez to force their candidacies though.

The manager chooses the bench and relievers….room for two

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

It should be Hays, because of his defensive value and overall play. Lopez has taken himself out of the running at the moment. He needs a break in lower leverage situations to get himself right, so that should shut his window for All-Star consideration for a little bit.

Hays has hurt himself with a 50-point OPS drop over the last week or so.