Future Second Baseman

[TommyPickles]

Ramon Urias could easily start 100 games at 2B for the Orioles in 2023.

He's been worth 3.5 bWAR over 144 games with the O's. He'll be 28 at the start of next season.

[wildcard]

Second Baseman is certainly an area that O's can trade from.   Keep the best and trade the rest.

Westburg:  One of his big advantage is he has a 55 arm.   O's value a  2B that has a good arm to turn the double play.

Prieto:  Has a 45 arm which probably ranks him lower.

Vavra: His arm rates 50.

Odor:  We have seen that he has a strong arm.  Probably a 55.  But he will not be with the O's next year because of this salary and Westburg is a better hitter.

Urias:  Strong arm.  Good range at 2B.   

Martin:   Good range and a strong arm.  Not as much range as Mateo at SS.  Which make him a backup there.  No power as a 2B which make him a backup there as well.

Mateo:  Has great range and a plus arm at SS and 2B.   But his range is so good at SS he probably will not be playing much 2B.

Gunnar: Is not really in the 2B discussion.   He is probably the O's starting 3B next year because that is where he is less error prone.  His bat is ready.   Maybe in the future he will improve his fielding at SS and move there.

So I think the future is Westburg at 2B,  Mateo at SS and Gunnar at 3B.   Martin is the best back up at SS and he can play 2B as well.

Prieto looks like surplus and tradable.  

Vavra's 400 OBP will be hard to give up on.   He has options so maybe the hang on to him as a OF/2B guy for a while.   He does seem injury prone though.

Urias is good at 2B/3B.   But probably not as good as Westburg.  As a backup  he is out of options which limits the roster flexibility.   I think he gets traded.  Hate to see him go because I like him a lot.

[Sports Guy]

Mateo shouldn’t be written down as an sort of long term option until the hitting starts to show up.  Can’t carry a sub 600 OPs bat.

[Orioles0615]

Gunnar at 3B

Westburg at 2B

Mayo at 1B

SS from the outside 

Mateo bench

Urias becnh

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo shouldn’t be written down as an sort of long term option until the hitting starts to show up.  Can’t carry a sub 600 OPs bat.

Its a valid concern but not the way I am thinking about it.   Finding a SS with league leading range is quite valuable.    He's got close to Mark Belanger range.   He needs to decrease his errors but that might happen with more playing time.  

Mateo looks pretty good at the plate.   And as he gets use the league he may improve his hitting to the 700 OPS range.  I would stick with him to see if that happens.    

In a lineup with Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, Gunner, Westburg, Adley  Santander,  and Stowers that may be enough offense to carry Mateo's excellent range.

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo shouldn’t be written down as an sort of long term option until the hitting starts to show up.  Can’t carry a sub 600 OPs bat.

Ideally Gunnar pans out. However, both bbref and Fangraphs have Mateo providing above replacement level. I definitely would not write him down but I've still got him as an option. If he is the worst hitter in the lineup I can live with that assuming the resources are deployed to fill bigger holes (pitching). What we don't want and can't have is a lineup full of guys like that. I

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its a valid concern but not the way I am think about it.   Finding a SS with league leading range is quite valuable.    He's got close to Mark Belanger range.   He needs to decrease his errors but that might happen with more playing time.  

Mateo looks pretty good at the plate.   And as he gets use the league he may improve his hitting to the 700 OPS range.  I would stick with him to see if that happens.    

In a lineup with Mullins, Hays, Mountcastle, Gunner, Westburg, Adley  Santander,  and Stowers that may be enough offense to carry Mateo's excellent range.

First of all, Belanger is one of the greatest defensive players to ever play and did it for a long time, so please don’t even utter the 2 in the same sentence, no matter the context.

Secondly, while offensive improvement is possible, he does have a 303 BABiP, so it’s not like he has been unlucky.  He doesn’t hit the ball hard, which is another issue.  He makes a lot of weak contact.

He’s about to turn 27 and has a career 620 OPS which followed up a very uninspiring career MiL OPS. 

In other words, I don’t see any reason to expect him to become a good hitter.  He can certainly get his OPS higher than what it is now but that doesn’t mean it will be good.

Now, if over the long haul, his defense stays as it is and he continues to steal bases at a good rate and his OPS gets in the 650-700 range, I agree that he has a chance to start.  But that’s a lot that has to happen And I wouldn’t be banking on it and writing him down at the starting SS for years to come.

[RZNJ]

Agree that Matos needs to hit better. However, if his defense stays at the current level and OPS is 650+ he only has a chance to start?  Wouldn’t he be a 5 win player.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Agree that Matos needs to hit better. However, if his defense stays at the current level and OPS is 650+ he only has a chance to start?  Wouldn’t he be a 5 win player.

Correct, at least in my world it would be.

[oriole]

I’m going to say Westburg. I think Henderson probably moves to 3B and SS is likely filled by FA or Mateo. If the rest of the lineup is good then you can stand to carry a defensive SS with speed. Mateo as a 9 hitter is great and considering he can steal with the best of them then all he really needs to do is focus on getting on base. 
 

Vavra is a possibility at 2B too but I think long term we will see him as an outfielder if/when he is healthy. 

[btdart20]

I went with the Prieto dark horse because:

* There's a really good chance we don't sign an FA SS in the off-season because of the train-wreck family Peter is leaving behind.  Which means Mateo probably starts the season at SS.

* It all depends on how well Mateo and Urias do opening the season as to who sticks in the IF.  Neither will block Gunnar, Westburg, or Prieto though.

* I think there's a lower chance of service time manipulation for Prieto compared to Westburg.

* I still anticipate they want Gunnar to stick at SS.  But also think Westburg will get some games at SS.  Meaning, what we saw in the minors is what will happen in Baltimore (until they prove it's not working somehow).

* Gunnar is SS and/or 3B after his mid-May/June 2023 call-up.

* Westburg is SS and/or 2B after his mid-May/June 2023 call-up.  But can see Westburg getting more SS starts than others as they want to maximize the offense and not take the defensive hit at 3B.

* Urias/Mateo will probably play the Ortiz role in AA (or even Prieto/Burns/Norby at A).  Plus, without Santander or Mancini, Mateo will a natural UTIL/4th OFer.

* Prieto would really have to hit from now through 2023 ST for him to have an earlier arrival.  But the position flexibility of Westburg makes me think he won't hit the 100-game threshold sooner.

[NCRaven]

I went with Westburg.  But, if Vavra can prove to be a solid MLB 2nd baseman, an infield of Mountcastle, Vavra, Henderson, Westburg, and Rutschman could prove to be very exciting.  If Mullins and Santander stick around, you have a Hays, Mullins, Stowers, Santander group sharing OF/DH.  Get Means, Rodriguez and Hall into the '23 rotation and the last two-thirds of next season could be exciting.

[NCRaven]

Unfortunately, Corn will now point out that graduating that many prospects would push us down in to the bottom third of farm system ranking and Elias would never allow that. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Unfortunately, Corn will now point out that graduating that many prospects would push us down in to the bottom third of farm system ranking and Elias would never allow that. 

 

Naw, I'm going to point out that he's not going to start the service clocks.

[NCRaven]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw, I'm going to point out that he's not going to start the service clocks.

That's why I said the second two-thirds may be exciting.  The first third will be spent saving service time in Norfolk.