Since their 6-game losing streak a month ago...

[vab]

53 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're still far off.  

13-12 is probably the best 25 game stretch (paging @Frobbyto the thread) since 2018.  But all it is, is a 25 game stretch.  We were .500 in May, probably the only .500 month we've had since 2018, too.

Stowers probably isn't here past the Jays series, but he isn't far away.  AR35 is here, but he's not really hitting too well yet.

I will say the season is going surprisingly well, although @Tony-OHand @Sports Guywill be here to admonish me for saying that.  

One thing they're not taking into consideration is RS/RA:

May 2021:  108 RS/163 RA

May 2022:  128 RS/145 RA

June 2021:  131 RS/ 172 RA

June 2022:  63 RS/67 RA

We're halfway through June and only down 4 runs.  

And before anyone whines, yeah, I Ieft out April because it wasn't convenient for my argument.

Also mentioned on one of the broadcasts the other night was, IIRC, that we've had more come from behind wins this year already than we have in all of last year.  I think that adds to the "feeling" that people have talked about on here that others are quick to dismiss.  This team fights.  

I know, I know, I know, overall W/L record isn't that great and from a 25,000 foot view, sure, I agree.   And yes, SG, I agree that Elias and the Orioles are terrible for making everyone think that it would take 4 years to rebuild and they could have been better than they are now.  

But that's not what I'm saying.  What I am saying is that this team **so far** is better than it's been in awhile.  I'm not sure if that holds up for the rest of the summer but anyone who watches the games this year compared to the 2020 and 2021 teams can't tell me that this team isn't better.

That said, it still has a long, long way to go.

They did have at least one 13-12 stretch in 2019 from 7/3/19-8/4/19 but certainly none in 2018, 2020 or 2021. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Haha, I'm not here to admonish anyone for being positive. There are things going on that are positive right now and the organization as a whole is better off than they were a few years ago.

As fans, you should look for the fun and enjoyment of the team in any way possible. 

The reality though is Elias is in his 4th season with the Orioles and the team is 19 games out of first place, the team is 9 games under .500, with the 7th worse record in the league. While wins and losses in the minor leagues are not a great barometer, all of the Elias minor league teams with his draft picks or signings outside of Aberdeen or pretty bad. The GCL and DSL teams are awful. Outside of Henderson, no prospect has broken out this year but many have regressed from their standing at the end of last year. Stowers and now Westburg in AAA look promising and are close, but what pitching help is on the way? Outside of Hall and Rodriguez (Both Rajsich draft picks) who is going to provide help to the rotation? 

I think Rutschman is going to hit so I'm not overly worried about his slow start, but it would have been nice to see him look like he belongs offensively right away at the big league level. He's not young for a prospect and was supposed to be an advanced hitter.

So let's say Henderson, Westburg and Stowers all hit their 90th percentile in potential and become everyday big leaguers. The lineup looks pretty decent then for sure.

My question then is, where does the pitching come from? Elias has decided against really drafting pitching highly or signing high priced pitching in the Latin America? Do you feel John Angelos is going to spend money while his brother is suing him?

The team is certainly better than the worse record in baseball awfulness that they've been over the years so I'm sure it does feel better, but at the end of the day, looking at the AL East, this team has a long, long way to go to compete.

 

Yep…and they won’t be depending any money either, at least not real money on real players.

[jamalshw]

11 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I feel that any starters that could help this year would not be available for Mancini and Santander.  Teams that would acquire Mancini and Santander, especially Mancini would be trying to make the playoffs this year, and I don't see that kind of starter being available from a playoff contending team.  The O's could look for a trade that brings back a couple of starting pitching prospects.  I don't think a GrayRod or even DL Hall prospect will be available, maybe a slight step up from Kremer, Zimmerman, Bradish type prospect. 

I think you could probably get a starter that could help the Orioles this year, but I don't think that would be the wisest return for any of our prospects. If you get someone that can contribute now, the upside on that pitcher is probably as a swing-guy whereas if you go a bit younger, you have a chance for something a bit better.

I agree a SP prospect in return is probably the better bet and I agree it's not going to be top-100 types, but more likely bottom of a team's top-10 prospects (depending on the quality of a team's farm system) as the highest quality in a return. That, of course, would still be worth it in some cases. 

[vab]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Haha, I'm not here to admonish anyone for being positive. There are things going on that are positive right now and the organization as a whole is better off than they were a few years ago.

As fans, you should look for the fun and enjoyment of the team in any way possible. 

The reality though is Elias is in his 4th season with the Orioles and the team is 19 games out of first place, the team is 9 games under .500, with the 7th worse record in the league. While wins and losses in the minor leagues are not a great barometer, all of the Elias minor league teams with his draft picks or signings outside of Aberdeen or pretty bad. The GCL and DSL teams are awful. Outside of Henderson, no prospect has broken out this year but many have regressed from their standing at the end of last year. Stowers and now Westburg in AAA look promising and are close, but what pitching help is on the way? Outside of Hall and Rodriguez (Both Rajsich draft picks) who is going to provide help to the rotation? 

I think Rutschman is going to hit so I'm not overly worried about his slow start, but it would have been nice to see him look like he belongs offensively right away at the big league level. He's not young for a prospect and was supposed to be an advanced hitter.

So let's say Henderson, Westburg and Stowers all hit their 90th percentile in potential and become everyday big leaguers. The lineup looks pretty decent then for sure.

My question then is, where does the pitching come from? Elias has decided against really drafting pitching highly or signing high priced pitching in the Latin America? Do you feel John Angelos is going to spend money while his brother is suing him?

The team is certainly better than the worse record in baseball awfulness that they've been over the years so I'm sure it does feel better, but at the end of the day, looking at the AL East, this team has a long, long way to go to compete.

 

Good point about the pitching. I think the initial idea with this rebuild is to stock up on position player talent, develop an excess there and trade for pitching from that. We'll have to see if that excess develops. Also I don't think there's any way around supplementing the rotation with at least one quality FA. If Angelos can't do that it's not Elias's fault.  

[sportsfan8703]

43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

21-22 since April 30.    Unfortunately they started the season 6-14.

How do we avoid a 6-14 start next year if Elias slow plays GR, Hall, Gunnar, and Westburg for the first three weeks to gain the extra year of control?  I’m excited for next year but I don’t think we will have our best possible team on field on OD 2023. 

[InsideCoroner]

Urgh, I was just looking back on that 2018 season, even though my browser warned me, "The following page may trigger PTSD. Are you sure you wish to continue?"  What a train wreck. The season when fourth OF Craig Gentry put up a higher WAR than AJ and Trumbo combined, and Chris Davis with 529 PAs and a .539 OPS / 48 OPS+. I need to wash my eyes out with bleach.

[LTO's]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Outside of Hall and Rodriguez (Both Rajsich draft picks) who is going to provide help to the rotation? 

I don't necessarily disagree with you here. Outside of Hall and Grayrod they don't have any obvious big league caliber starters. But the real question is, how many teams do?  The majority of rotations are staffed with guys that team acquired outside of the draft.  You can look no further than the AL East to see that. Drafting pitchers high seems to be a really bad strategy when building a team. The Orioles have two dynamic SP prospects and they've both been seriously injured before even throwing a pitch in Baltimore. 

[jamalshw]

On the topic of how "close" we are, it really depends on what we define as close. I'm excited about the position players. While Mullins hasn't been as good this year as we hoped, Hays has been better than I expected and I'm encouraged by Santander's improvement in the walks/OBP category. I like that we have at least seen Stowers at the MLB level and that he's ready to come up when we trade away someone at the deadline. The OF is looking solid and while I'm still a bit worried about Cowser, I find myself a bit less worried lately. 

While we haven't seen Rutschman at his best, yet, I'm still excited he's here and think the catcher situation is set. 

On to the infield, Urias was picking it up before his injury and Odor has played well enough that he may be dealt (though I'm skeptical of that as I don't think the Orioles are going to rush anyone to take that spot). For next year, we have Westburg and Henderson off to a good early start in AAA. We have Mateo who while not the best bat has still produced plenty of value on his defense and speed and looks to at least be a viable bench option along with Urias. We are likely missing one key infield bat, but fortunately there are a few good Free Agent options (Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson). 

The pitching is the real issue, namely the rotation, though the pen may be a question after the deadline if Lopez, Tate and/or anyone else are dealt. Still, I think some of the fringe arms we have may be pen options if nothing else. 

The rotation is really where we are the farthest away. Means is hopefully back by the end of 2023. I hope to see Rodriguez and Hall in the rotation in the early part of 2023 at the latest, but Hall doesn't look like he's quite ready yet (hopefully soon). Even assuming those two make it and are top end arms like we hope, we are still left with Means, Zimmermann, Wells, Bradish to fill out the rest of the rotation. 

In the end, I think we are close in that the Orioles can make two significant signings in the offseason and put themselves in a position to be a fringe competitor. They need one of the big infielders and a top end starter. Those are BIG signings and going with a budget option (particularly with the SP) is NOT an option. Of course, there are a couple additional depth pieces also needed (a second backend starter would be nice, too), but those are the big two pieces and we are close enough that 2 signings could potentially put us in a good spot. That's certainly closer than we've been in a few years...but it depends on your definition of close to whether that's truly close or not. The low payroll at the moment makes it possible for those two big signings to happen, but I'm still skeptical one will happen, let alone two. 

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

The O's are 13-12. 

I feel like if you zoom out a bit, this season is going surprisingly well. A few things to consider:

-The O's have the lowest payroll in MLB this year. Roughly $30 million.

-The O's have one of the toughest schedules in baseball. The AL East towers over every other division at the moment. 

-The O's lost their best pitcher, Means, and their best pitching prospect, Rodriquez, to season ending injuries.

Yet, despite all this, the O's have a .429 Win%. We have a better record than 7 other franchises. We have better attendance than 7 other franchises. 

Mountcastle and Hays are ascending. Rutschman and Stowers have made it to the bigs. We've found a closer. (Hopefully) Means, Rodriquez, and Hall will all be in the rotation next season...

The playoffs have been expanded so that FORTY PERCENT of teams make it!? We won't have to play nearly as many division games next year.

We're not that far off. Go O's.

 

Good post.  Maybe it's because I love watching baseball, but most games have been fun to watch this year.  With that said, the Orioles should definitely be looking to trade Mancini, Santander and Lopez, who I think could fetch a good package, at the deadline and get more at bats for Stowers and possibly even Diaz if healthy.  Things are definitely headed in the right direction.  Thanks for posting. 

[Yardball85]

1 hour ago, InsideCoroner said:

Urgh, I was just looking back on that 2018 season, even though my browser warned me, "The following page may trigger PTSD. Are you sure you wish to continue?"  What a train wreck. The season when fourth OF Craig Gentry put up a higher WAR than AJ and Trumbo combined, and Chris Davis with 529 PAs and a .539 OPS / 48 OPS+. I need to wash my eyes out with bleach.

Gentry had a higher WAR than AJ and Trumbo? WOW, what a stat.  I did not know that.  I guess my mind has been kind to me and allowed me to  forget.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you here. Outside of Hall and Grayrod they don't have any obvious big league caliber starters. But the real question is, how many teams do?  The majority of rotations are staffed with guys that team acquired outside of the draft.  You can look no further than the AL East to see that. Drafting pitchers high seems to be a really bad strategy when building a team. The Orioles have two dynamic SP prospects and they've both been seriously injured before even throwing a pitch in Baltimore. 

While I don't necessarily disagree that drafting pitchers high is risky, I think you need to invest some draft picks in high ceiling arms early on in some drafts. Baumler is the most money Elias has invested into an arm, and while he's already has his TJ surgery, not surprisingly, he's probably the best starting pitching prospect outside of Rajsich's two.

Look at the money Elias has invested into Kjerstad, Cowser, and Haskin. the book is out on all of them but they're not exactly knocking on the door looking like impact players. 

In the end, there is inherent risk to giving money to any amateur player because no matter what the tools, you don't know until they get to the big leagues whether they can compete against that kind of talent.

[eddie83]

The position player talent at the majors and upper minors is in a position to compete with. 

Elias knows all the same things we do. He deliberately tried to build up the position players. It was a plan. Will it work? Time will tell. 
 

I’m not going to convict him of a crime he hasn’t committed yet. He didn’t invest draft capital into pitching. I’m supposed to be dumb enough to think he isn’t aware of the risks? 
 

Now does that mean he will do a good job of building up the arms? Of course not. 
 

His tenure will be judged by how the next 2/3 years play out. 

[eddie83]

If Means is healthy and Grod is on the team is Elias any smarter?  You add those two and two of Bradish, Zimmerman and Kremer are at AAA. 
That of course is the whole issue with pitching and why depth matters so much.

We also have no depth with the position players. It’s glaring on the infield. You fix the starters everything flows backwards.  The Urias and Mateo’s of the world become backups. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…and they won’t be depending any money either, at least not real money on real players.

I think you are pre-judging that.   I’m hopeful that you’re wrong.   But I don’t know if you are or not.  We’ll find out.  

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you are pre-judging that.   I’m hopeful that you’re wrong.   But I don’t know if you are or not.  We’ll find out.  

They may spend on a few Lyles type guys but they don’t move the needle.