Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Sports Guy]

Who cares about underslot.  That just says they aren’t taking the best player, which is absurd.

BTW, an elite Hs player will move just as fast.

[pdiddy]

I’m not saying it’s what I’d do, just speculating on reasoning. I guess we’ll see

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, pdiddy said:

I’m not saying it’s what I’d do, just speculating on reasoning. I guess we’ll see

I know..I’m just talking in general.  Wasn’t meant to be directed at you.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

FWIW, Steve Melewski was just talking to Jim Callis on MASN postgame and right now Callis is going with the Orioles drafting Temarr Johnson because he's underslot. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

FWIW, Steve Melewski was just talking to Jim Callis on MASN postgame and right now Callis is going with the Orioles drafting Temarr Johnson because he's underslot. 

Technically they can anyone not named Jones for under slot.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Technically they can anyone not named Jones for under slot.

Good point. Callis seemed to think the savings was more on Johnson over Holliday. 

[RVAOsFan]

10 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Good point. Callis seemed to think the savings was more on Johnson over Holliday. 

That Callis interview happened prior to Lee becoming the heavy favorite on the betting sites tonight I posted it somewhere on this sub forum earlier today.  Something happened with Lee tonight for his odds to sky rocket like they did.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

That Callis interview happened prior to Lee becoming the heavy favorite on the betting sites tonight I posted it somewhere on this sub forum earlier today.  Something happened with Lee tonight for his odds to sky rocket like they did.

Interesting. My preference is Druw Jones, but Brooks Lee draft profile is promising with him potentially being a switch hitting shortstop. 

[Sydnor]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep.  So dumb.  Hopefully they don’t F up the rest of the draft like last year.

For what it’s worth, the odds didn’t flip to the Magic taking Banchero until about 6 hours before the draft. I’m preparing myself to be disappointed with Lee, but I’m trying to provide a glimmer of hope. I also don’t think Lee is going to go that far under slot. Callis made it sound like he wouldn’t be a big under slot and John Sheperd said last month that he wasn’t sure how Lee would save the Orioles money if you put stock in his opinions.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

FWIW, Steve Melewski was just talking to Jim Callis on MASN postgame and right now Callis is going with the Orioles drafting Temarr Johnson because he's underslot. 

Translation:  the Orioles will not be going BPA.  They value the saved money over the talent.  
 

They did the same thing last year. 

[RZNJ]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Translation:  the Orioles will not be going BPA.  They value the saved money over the talent.  
 

They did the same thing last year. 

 

Yeah, Cowser isn't looking very talented to this point.

[seak05]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Translation:  the Orioles will not be going BPA.  They value the saved money over the talent.  
 

They did the same thing last year. 

To be more accurate, they value spreading the money out among multiple talents, rather then giving most of it to one. 
 

But it’s inherently risky see what happened last year (then again so is giving all the money to one player). 
 

Also not sure that not Jones actually means underslot. Lee and Holiday at least will probably be looking for close to slot as well 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, seak05 said:

To be more accurate, they value spreading the money out among multiple talents, rather then giving most of it to one. 
 

But it’s inherently risky see what happened last year (then again so is giving all the money to one player). 
 

Also not sure that not Jones actually means underslot. Lee and Holiday at least will probably be looking for close to slot as well 

Don't waste your time. He won't be able to grasp the concept that they actually might like another player as much or more than Jones.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, seak05 said:

To be more accurate, they value spreading the money out among multiple talents, rather then giving most of it to one. 
 

But it’s inherently risky see what happened last year (then again so is giving all the money to one player). 
 

Also not sure that not Jones actually means underslot. Lee and Holiday at least will probably be looking for close to slot as well 

1) All of them are going to be underslot.  Just some more than others.

2) You have plenty of money to spend regardless.  You don’t have to go 2-3M overslot for your 42nd pick to get a very good player.  See Gunnar Henderson as an example.

3)  Yes, they are valuing the money over the talent.  They did the same thing with Cowser and Lawlar last year.  Cowser is good and the rest of the draft wasn’t.  The issue I have with how it was done last year is that you could have talent Cowser and likely ended up with the same or a very similar draft.  If you are going to pass on the better, higher ranked talent, you need to come away with guys you otherwise couldn’t have had.

This is the whole issue with the underslot/overslot strategy.  It’s imperative that the team nails the next several picks.  Look at what Pitt did last year.  The Orioles didn’t come close to doing anything like that.  And remember, those guys are far more unlikely to make a Ml impact anyway.  The first round is a 50/50 crapshoot and after the first round, it drops significantly from there.  So we are saving money early, to spend more later on guys not likely to be good.  

So far, we have heard of 2 different players that the Os targeted in this scenario and missed on both of them.  Why are they basing a strategy on a player falling?  You have no idea if it happens.  
 

Take the best player and go from there.  There is no lack of money and you have an additional 830ishK to spend.  Use all of it, take the best player first and I promise that they have room for at least one and likely 2 overslots as the draft goes on.  
 

I would bet on the second or third pick being a college bat that takes slot to sign.  That gives you the ability to go overslot with the other 2 picks in your top 4.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Don't waste your time. He won't be able to grasp the concept that they actually might like another player as much or more than Jones.

If they value Johnson, Holliday or Lee as the best player on their board and the best possible talent they can draft, so be it.  I have never said that it can’t happen.

However, what isn’t being said is..the Orioles will go with Johnson because they feel he is the best talent in the draft.  What is being said is, they will go with Johnson because he represent the most savings.

Those are 2 very different thought processes.  One says we believe he is the #1 player in this draft.  The other says we think he’s very good but the savings on him make him the pick.  
 

You have said you don’t believe they passed on guys in the past because of money.  You believe that Cowser and Kjerstad were #1 on their board and also represented savings.  That’s your belief.  You also said you would agree that if they pass on what they believe to be a better talent just to save money, that they are wrong in doing so.

Im saying the same thing.  The difference is you believe they had Cowser ranked above Lawlar, where as I don’t.