Rutschman vs Witt

[OriolesMagic83]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They handle every pitch and that makes it more important?  Do you know how many people in the world can sit back there and catch the ball?  You think that makes it the most important position?

 

People asked me about the data and all the years of it..well guess what, the running game used to be more important.  Catchers used to always call their own games.  Now with analytics and stuff like that, they get told what to call, stolen bases aren’t as prevelant, etc…

Saying they handle every pitch therefore it’s really important is like saying first base is the most important IF position because most outs are made at first and they handle the ball all the time.

There is way more to it than that.

I guess Severino wasn't one of those people.  As others have stated, catching a 100 mph fastball or 90 mph slider in the dirt is very difficult.  Then maybe having to make a throw to 2nd a fraction of a 2nd later.  Elite catchers (which I believe Adley will be) also have a positive influence on their pitchers.  If I could get $10 for every time I heard Palmer talk about how important a catcher is, I could retire early.  I don't listen to other team's broadcasts, but I would bet that other HOF/great retired pitchers would say the same thing.  Dempsey had a 24 year career and it obviously wasn't because of his hitting.  Some of the ways Adley will contribute positively to the O's-framing, better defense (dove for a popup 20 feet behind home plate), coaching pitchers, team leadership, and of course, I believe he will be well above average on base and hitting for power.  Whether he will be able to depress the other team's stealing bases remains to be seen.  Oh yeah, he's best friends with the O's 2 top pitching prospects. 

I'm glad the O's chose Adley.  Also I read an article in the last couple of days that described Holliday as Witt w/ a more advanced bat.  Looks like we might end up w/ both an elite catcher and an elite SS.

[LA2]

13 hours ago, Gentile4 said:

There's a lot to process in this thread. Is it reasonable to let Adley run the pitching staff, produce good offensive numbers, hopefully lead the team into the playoffs multiple times during the next six years, and then let him walk in free agency? How many catchers are truly productive after the age of 30? Is it financially sound to resign him in FA? Now, if they can cut a deal now for a reasonable dollar amount, that's one thing, but I don't see that happening. Is he a generational talent? Maybe, but it's obviously too early to tell. That said, I like the AR pick over Witt. Time will tell.

Although clearly in the minority, there have been, as you know, a good number of modern ball catchers that have had careers where they were truly productive into their mid-30s, despite horrific injuries (Posey) or heavy loads (Molina). I'm hoping for the type of great one-team careers they had, but I know it's unlikely and probably unaffordable.

[Orioles Jim]

UPDATE:

Rutschman is now slashing .257/.364/.453/.818 with an OPS+ of 131 and a WAR of 4.6 (89 games, 368 PA)

Witt is now slashing .246/.291/.438/.729 with an OPS+ of 104 and a WAR of 0.6 (127 games, 533 PA)

[glenn__davis]

2 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

UPDATE:

Rutschman is now slashing .257/.364/.453/.818 with an OPS+ of 131 and a WAR of 4.6 (89 games, 368 PA)

Witt is now slashing .246/.291/.438/.729 with an OPS+ of 104 and a WAR of 0.6 (127 games, 533 PA)

Adley is definitely the better player right now.  Of course he's 2 years older than Witt.  Will be interesting to continue to follow the 2 through the next 3-4 years.

[emmett16]

I think the more interesting comparison moving forward is Gunnar vs. Witt.   Adley might just turn out to be icing on the cake.  

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think the more interesting comparison moving forward is Gunnar vs. Witt.   Adley might just turn out to be icing on the cake.  

I agree that will be an interesting comparison.  Witt’s a full year older, so whatever Gunnar does next year will basically be comparable to what Witt does this year.  I think Witt’s very talented and has really only scratched the surface this year.   Gunnar may do more than that in 2023.   One thing I’m pretty sure of is he’ll have the better OBP by a wide margin. 

[Sports Guy]

Witt needs to focus on his defense.  Thats really holding down his WAR numbers.

 

BTW, Fangraphs has Witt at a 2.1 WAR.  The fangraphs WAR is the superior WAR to look at.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Bowden in the Athletic had Julio Rodriguez taking ROY with Witt 2nd over Adley in his column the other day.

[Sports Guy]

End of the day, if Adley doesn’t win the ROY, we should hope he doesn’t finish better than 3rd.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

End of the day, if Adley doesn’t win the ROY, we should hope he doesn’t finish better than 3rd.

 

I'm rooting for top two.

Karma.

[Fiver6565]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm rooting for top two.

Karma.

So you want to have the player for one less season for karma?  What lesson do you believe this karmic intervention will teach?  That makes zero sense. 

[dystopia]

Is Adley’s service time seriously dependent on his ROY voting?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Is Adley’s service time seriously dependent on his ROY voting?

Under the new rules, yes.

[dystopia]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Under the new rules, yes.

That's ridiculous.

[MarCakes21]

Fangraphs WAR (FIP Based/RA-9 WAR)

Adley: 4.0/4.0

Pena: 2.4/2.4

Witt: 2.1/2.1

Rodriguez: 4.2/4.2

Kirby: 2.7/2.0

Gilbert: 2.4/3.0

Kwan: 2.8/2.8

Felix Bautista: 1.4/2.4

 

It'll be a tight race.  I believe that Julio is likely the clear cut favorite based on games played, but several could have a chance at second over Adley in voting for the same reason, and that their team mike make the playoffs if the O's don't.

Threw in Bautista for fun too

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by MarCakes21
Adding Kwan