Upcoming Free Agent pitchers

[Just Regular]

One bit of today's Dan Szymborski chat, with the question perhaps coming from a place that the 2023 FA SP class can be thrown into the "nobody's really that good" bin if Musgrove is eliminated, so skip ahead to 2024.

sadtrombone: Joe Musgrove grades out as a guy who will be better, longer in FA because of his age. In the following offseason, Julio Urias will be 28.2 years old, Flaherty will be 29.1, Tyler Mahle will be 30.1, Ohtani will be 30.3, and Giolito will be 30.3. Which of these guys looks like the guy who has the best chance to hold value for the long-haul? (as a pitcher, have to specify that because of Ohtani). A team that isn’t quite ready now, but should be ready in a year or two–who should they go after?

12:15

 Dan Szymborski: As a pitcher, I think Giolito’s probably the *safest* though obviously I love Ohtani

[backwardsk]

Musgrove is out.  But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rodon opt out and hit the market with such little competition.

[OriolesMagic83]

DeGrom has said he will still opt out even though he has been on the IL most of the year.  I don't expect the O's to be in the bidding for him.  He will probably just end up getting more money from the Mets.

[Just Regular]

Rodon running hot enough to get Szymborski to do a feature today with an updated ZIPS guesstimating ~4/120 as a fair price, though Rodon also as young as Scherzer and Lester when they get their much longer deals.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/carlos-rodon-appears-headed-for-a-big-payday/

It mentions deGrom in passing for about ~2/80 but between his lack of innings and seeming loyalty to Mets, their chance to retain seems much better than the Giants with Rodon.    September and October a canvas where deGrom could do almost anything between adding to the They All Break thread to positioning himself for All the Money in the World.

[Sports Guy]

Rodon is being so overvalued.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Rodon is being so overvalued.

I would rather have Bassitt than Rodon.  Wonder what it will take to sign Bassitt?  3 yrs/$45-50?

[CharmCityHokie]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would rather have Bassitt than Rodon.  Wonder what it will take to sign Bassitt?  3 yrs/$45-50?

FA pitching is thin for this winter, Bassitt is going to get paid more than that. It wouldn't surprise me if he got close to $20mm/yr. 

[Just Regular]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34464810/tampa-bay-rays-rhp-tyler-glasnow-agree-two-year-extension

Rays just removed Tyler Glasnow from 2024 list, purchasing one FA year of whatever post-TJ pitcher he becomes for 1/25.

[CharmCityHokie]

On 8/26/2022 at 4:35 PM, Just Regular said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34464810/tampa-bay-rays-rhp-tyler-glasnow-agree-two-year-extension

Rays just removed Tyler Glasnow from 2024 list, purchasing one FA year of whatever post-TJ pitcher he becomes for 1/25.

This deal blew my mind. Not that Glasnow isn't worth the gamble, but that of all teams the Rays would push in on him. That deal alone is more than 30% of their current overall roster payroll. Surprised to see it.

[Just Regular]

Tier listings from Jeff Passan's ESPN offseason preview.    Until/unless Elias surprises by buying a Bat, my prior entering the offseason is $$$$ is all for Arms.

Tier 1 - deGrom

Tier 2 - Verlander, Rodon, Diaz, JAPAN Koudai Senga, Bassitt

(I feel placing Bassitt here very generous to him.    I don't know much on Senga, but imagine Ohtani's Club might enjoy a recruiting edge)

Tier 3 - Kershaw, Taillon, T. Anderson, Eovaldi, Wainwright

(Here they stop ranking within tiers, and pivot to alphabetical order)

Tier 4 SP - Carrasco, Clevinger, Cueto, Davies, Eflin, Gibson, Heaney, Kluber, Lyles, Manaea, M. Perez, Quintana, Stripling, Syndergaard, Wacha, T. Walker

Tier 4 RP - Aroldis, Kenley, S. Lugo, R. Montero, M. Moore, Ottavino, D. Robertson, Taylor Rogers, W. Smith

(Manaea feels too low, he's I think the only SP here I believe has several more good seasons in him).

Tier 5 (only doing Lyles-type innings sponges here): M. Boyd, D. Bundy, Greinke, Lorenzen, Miley, Pineda

Last offseason my memory is like 12 seconds after the World Series the Dodgers snapped Heaney up, as the sharpest Clubs leverage their brand to help them land Good Enough guys.     For sure some of my expectations are that if anything good is happening for the 2023 Orioles in the offseason, the opening move will be somewhat early in the game.

It isn't out of play the move is, "We've exercised Jordan Lyles option", but that would not be an entertaining beginning.

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Tier listings from Jeff Passan's ESPN offseason preview.    Until/unless Elias surprises by buying a Bat, my prior entering the offseason is $$$$ is all for Arms.

Tier 1 - deGrom

Tier 2 - Verlander, Rodon, Diaz, JAPAN Koudai Senga, Bassitt

(I feel placing Bassitt here very generous to him.    I don't know much on Senga, but imagine Ohtani's Club might enjoy a recruiting edge)

Tier 3 - Kershaw, Taillon, T. Anderson, Eovaldi, Wainwright

(Here they stop ranking within tiers, and pivot to alphabetical order)

Tier 4 SP - Carrasco, Clevinger, Cueto, Davies, Eflin, Gibson, Heaney, Kluber, Lyles, Manaea, M. Perez, Quintana, Stripling, Syndergaard, Wacha, T. Walker

Tier 4 RP - Aroldis, Kenley, S. Lugo, R. Montero, M. Moore, Ottavino, D. Robertson, Taylor Rogers, W. Smith

(Manaea feels too low, he's I think the only SP here I believe has several more good seasons in him).

Tier 5 (only doing Lyles-type innings sponges here): M. Boyd, D. Bundy, Greinke, Lorenzen, Miley, Pineda

Last offseason my memory is like 12 seconds after the World Series the Dodgers snapped Heaney up, as the sharpest Clubs leverage their brand to help them land Good Enough guys.     For sure some of my expectations are that if anything good is happening for the 2023 Orioles in the offseason, the opening move will be somewhat early in the game.

It isn't out of play the move is, "We've exercised Jordan Lyles option", but that would not be an entertaining beginning.

 

 

Why are you low on Bassitt?  He's actually my favorite for the O's to sign this offseason.  His 171 IP, 3.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP would look good for the O's.

I think DeGrom and Verlander are pipe dreams for the O's.  Houston and Mets will pay just about any price to keep their prospective aces, imo.  If Verlander gets 3 yr/$120 mill offer from Houston and DeGrom gets 5 year/$200 mill offer from Mets are the O's realistically going to outbid those teams? 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Why are you low on Bassitt?  He's actually my favorite for the O's to sign this offseason.  His 171 IP, 3.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP would look good for the O's.

16th round pick, no MLB success until 30.    I don't know his story that well...is he like the Justin Turner of pitchers?

He has had a heck of a 4-year run.

He also hits me as the kind of pitcher who is 162-useful, and then hidden in October.    I'll be curious to see how Buck deploys him next month.    deGrom-Scherzer obviously 1-2, then is it Taijuan or him in Game 3?    Passan pegs Taijuan two tiers behind, so I think to him it is obvious, but we'll see.