O's hottest item is Bautista

[Aristotelian]

Trading Felix makes no sense unless you think he is due for regression. He's pre-arb and can be closing games for us in 2028. He is exactly what you would want to build your bullpen around. 

[Moose Milligan]

49 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Trading Felix makes no sense unless you think he is due for regression. He's pre-arb and can be closing games for us in 2028. He is exactly what you would want to build your bullpen around. 

Yeah, if there's one guy in the bullpen that's borderline untouchable, it's him.  And it's a testament to the system for developing him, too.  

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Lopez has two more arb years and there's no smoke and mirrors to his game right now. The 98/99 sinker is very real. Maybe offseason between 2023 / 2024 we deal him, but he's a part of the next O's contender as we stand now and I don't think he's turning into a pumpkin. Those questions have been answered re: his brief pre-ASB slide as far as I'm concerned.

I think it’s just as likely he reverts back closer to his old self. He just appears to be a confidence player to me. When things are good he rolls and when he struggles he strings the bad outings. I think he’s the player of the 2 that Elias would deal. 
 

 

[MurphDogg]

7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I think it’s just as likely he reverts back closer to his old self. He just appears to be a confidence player to me. When things are good he rolls and when he struggles he strings the bad outings. I think he’s the player of the 2 that Elias would deal. 

I don't think it is particularly likely at all that Jorge Lopez reverts to his old self, given that he was just as good last year as a reliever.

I think shifting to the bullpen and finding success has changed his approach from when he was a starting pitcher.

I don't think he is going to maintain a sub 2 ERA for the rest of his career, and all relievers have a few lousy outings per season, but Jorge Lopez is as sure a bet as any reliever to maintain his success.

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think it is particularly likely at all that Jorge Lopez reverts to his old self, given that he was just as good last year as a reliever.

I think shifting to the bullpen and finding success has changed his approach from when he was a starting pitcher.

I don't think he is going to maintain a sub 2 ERA for the rest of his career, and all relievers have a few lousy outings per season, but Jorge Lopez is as sure a bet as any reliever to maintain his success.

He’s the one I’d deal if someone came with a good offer.

[MurphDogg]

18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He’s the one I’d deal if someone came with a good offer.

Of the two of them, of course.

It is always ideal to avoid paying relievers in arbitration, especially closers as they tend to make as much in their final year of arbitration as they do in free agency.

If another team offers a top 100 prospect and at least one other prospect that would slot in around the Orioles #10 prospect (Norby) , then by all means trade Lopez. I just can't see that happening, and there is no need to trade him for less when we hope to be competitive next year.

I just don't think it is particularly likely that Lopez regresses, any more so than any other reliever and I would need more evidence than "he was a bad starter" to change my mind.

Edited July 31, 2022 by MurphDogg

[now]

Worth recalling, in this vein, the James article showing top closers held the top correlation to WS winners over a 40-year sample (M. Rivera bias notwithstanding).

I bring this up not to advocate keeping Lopez, but on the contrary, to dangle him to a bona fide WS contender this year, in hopes they're aware of that importance. As for Felix, just say no!

(Edit: Oops.  They all fail... eventually.)

Edited July 31, 2022 by now