Odor isn't going anywhere

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Orioles Jim said:

 

Odor does have a nearly .800 OPS in close-and-late situations.  But part of the reason many of those games were close and late was that he has a .550 something OPS in innings one through six.

Also, in his career he has a .715 OPS, and a .711 OPS in high leverage situations.  So it's not magic unless he learned the trick this year.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, AdamK said:

I was going to post the below...

I watched the game and have read the comments/seen the highlights, and -- for the record -- I counted three plays (not two) where Odor didn't help things. Maybe I am being too critical, but these are the plays where my brow furrows:

1. Bottom 4th: Poor baserunning trying to get to 3rd. (Os did score 1 this inning but...)
2. Top 6th: Error credited to Odor on relay throw home (from Santander) that was well off the mark - great chance for out at the plate
3. Top 9th: Error credited to Odor on airmail over Mountcastle, allowing the runner to advance to second with only 1 out

 

...but, gall-darn it, it was worth it all to hear honest comments from Ben and Kevin in the later innings about how he's dangling by a thread but comes through with the bat just enough.

So I was at the game sitting a few rows behind 1B for the first two plays and got a good look at them.  First, I agree that the baserunning mistake was pretty egregious.   It was tough to tell if the OF would catch it or not, but since there was no force play on, no reason for Odor to be in no man’s land.   The relay throw, I put some of the blame on Mullins, who threw too high and off line, forcing Odor to double-clutch a little and throw off balance which contributed to his poor throw.  I had a good view of that from my seat and while I’m not excusing Odor, Mullins’ throw played a part in it, too.

I went home during the rain delay but saw the 9th inning play on TV.   Terrible throw of course, but the ball may well have been slick from the rain   So, again I’m not giving Odor a pass, but I don’t judge that throw as harshly as I would on a dry field.
 

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think it depends on how the team is doing in a few weeks.  If the Orioles are in a wildcard spot and Odor is hitting .190 and Nevin is still here it'll be harder and harder to justify keeping the #1 prospect down so they can have his last arb year in 2029.  The Orioles have about a 1% chance of winning the Series, but you can't really have a September playoff race where your 3rd, 6th, and 11th best players are not on the team because 2029.

I totally get that and I don't disagree with any of that.  But if they're in a wild card spot at the end of the month and they still have these guys, I think Elias is going to look at it as "Yeah, we're doing just fine WITH these guys, I'm not touching anything."

That...and like it or not, Odor seems to be loved by his teammates.  And that doesn't matter to you, me, @Sports Guyor anyone else here because we know that a Henderson promotion would make this team better on paper.  And as much as the guys in the clubhouse hate to admit that this is a business, they would be forced to acknowledge it if Odor, a guy who's beloved in the clubhouse is sent packing for a rookie.

I've gone on record and said that Odor is one of my all time favorite "Bad Orioles," but I agree Henderson should be up after the 23rd and he should be gone if Elias is serious about a playoff run.  

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And I agree he had those defensive attributes, although every advanced defensive metric rates him below average overall.   I think one reason Hyde likes his defense so much is that our defense there last year was putrid (Fangraphs ranked the O’s 29th of 30 teams at 2B defense), so Odor is a big improvement even though he’s below average himself. Hyde’s probably not in the mood to find out in August whether someone else would be better or worse.

Are you talking about the "def" category when you say improvements? I've looked at the glossary and tried to figure out the math, but I have no idea how they come up with the number. Look at the Orioles and Phillies second baseman and tell me how the Orioles should rank over them? I don't get it.

Now the one thing to remember is that the Orioles ran out Rio Ruiz to start the year at 2B and that should tell you how prepared they were for that position in 2021.  Valaika led the team in starts, followed by Urias, Wilkeson, Jones, Ruiz and Leyba. It was a disaster area defensively.

Orioles                                                                                         2021 vs 2022
rGDP – Double Play Runs Saved runs above average                  -4     vs   1   
rGFP – Good Fielding Plays Runs Saved runs above average       0      vs   0
rPM – Plus/Minus Runs Saved runs above average                     -5     vs   -4
DRS – Defensive Runs Saved runs above average                       -9     vs   -3
DPR – Double Play runs above average                                       -1.7  vs   1.9
UZR/150 – Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 defensive games        -0.8   vs  -3.5
RAR – Runs Above Replacement (Bat + Fld + run + Rep + Pos)  -20.6 (30th) vs
- 6.2 (29th)

The biggest improvement I can see is in Double Play runs above average where the Orioles have gone from -1.9 in 2021 to the league leaders in 1.7 in 2022. 

Are they better than the slop of players who played 2B in 2021 who finished a remarkable 11.7 RAR behind the 29th worse team 2B, but they are still the next to last with Odor playing the vast majority of the starts at 2B.

 

 

 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd be surprised, too.  But the clamoring for Henderson is getting obnoxious.  Either he gets called up after the 23rd or not at all.  But no one who follows this team closely can be surprised that Elias would hold him back to get another year of service time. 

So true...  on Odor, on clamoring, on Henderson/Elias.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Orioles Jim said:

 

HAHA! Gold!

[GuidoSarducci]

Its ironic, because Odor remaining on the roster reminds me of how the clubhouse used to be run under Buck.  Not that Odor would necessarily be one of "Bucks guys" but it seems like the culture shifted to being metrics heavy rather than the old school approach of liking certain players despite what the numbers would indicate.  Unless there's some strange metric that only Elias and Hyde know about.  Performance in high leverage situations maybe?

[JimGinSP]

Certainly glad Odor was in the lineup so Bradish didn’t have to leave to a no decision!