Orioles should consider converting Stowers to 1B

[jdwilde1]

53 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

90% of his chances involve catching a ball someone else throws to you at chest height.  The large majority of a 1B chances are very routine. 

But a lot of the important chances are ranging far off the bag and/or fielding very sharply hit balls that would otherwise become hits. Basically being a third baseman who doesn't have to throw as far.  A lot of the best first basemen would be 2B/SS/3B but they can't because they're left-handed.

I would rather have a 5' 10" first baseman who could handle shortstop than some 6' 6" guy who isn't mobile but could reach the occasional wild throw.

Well, I do not think anyone is going to argue with your conclusion that it's preferable to have an exceptional fielding first baseman who is shorter than a poor fielding first baseman who is taller.  However, the point of my post was that reach is a factor in a first baseman's defensive ability (i.e. all things being equal, it's preferable to have a first baseman with a long reach).  To what extent does extra reach matter, I am not sure. Surprisingly, I have not found any articles addressing how reach affects a first baseman's defense.  And to be clear, it's not the first baseman's height, but his reach (this is why Elton Brand, who is just 6'8" but with a 7'5" wingspan, was an elite rebounder).

Regarding your statement about the majority of first baseman's chances being routine, I agree, but usually there are several errant throws of varying difficulty for the first baseman every game (low, high, wide).  Now, I expect that most errant throws are in the dirt rather than being too high or too wide, and having a longer reach would not necessarily be an advantage on most of those plays, but in general, longer reach can help save errant throws. In addition to errant throws that would pull a first baseman with less reach off the bag, longer reach is also a benefit in very close plays since the ball does not need to travel as far.  For example, a 6'4" first baseman is probably going to have 7"-8" inches longer reach over a guy who is 5'10".  

Finally, I hear you on the importance of having a guy at fist base that can pick it like a top notch third baseman.  I want that, and believe that very good fielding first basemen do not get the credit they deserve (part of this is probably from the fact that the positional adjustment destroys their perceived defensive value). With that said, first basemen do not see nearly as many chance on batted balls as third basemen because only about 35% of MLB hitters bat from the left side, and there just are not that many opposite field grounders.  

An every day first baseman will usually record around 1,200-1300 putouts.  That is, he is receiving over 1,000 throws where reach has the possibility of being a factor.  How many extra outs does Mountcastle's reach get you over Connor Norby?  Again, I don't know, but 10-15 seems to be a very reasonable assumption.  

 

[sportsfan8703]

Mountcastle played a hell of a 1B tonight. 

[PHRESH]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mountcastle played a hell of a 1B tonight. 

Credit where credit's due. 

[Ripken]

10 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mountcastle played a hell of a 1B tonight. 

I've been really impressed with his defense of late.  Give him credit that he hasn't taken his struggles at the plate out to the field.

[btdart20]

20 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

90% of his chances involve catching a ball someone else throws to you at chest height.  The large majority of a 1B chances are very routine. 

But a lot of the important chances are ranging far off the bag and/or fielding very sharply hit balls that would otherwise become hits. Basically being a third baseman who doesn't have to throw as far.  A lot of the best first basemen would be 2B/SS/3B but they can't because they're left-handed.

I would rather have a 5' 10" first baseman who could handle shortstop than some 6' 6" guy who isn't mobile but could reach the occasional wild throw.

I'm team @DrungoHazewood.  Height/span is ONE factor and if we're building a player to spec he'd absolutely be a 6'6" lefty.  Other than pitching, maybe height/arm span/range matters more for 1B than any other position.  But give me the guy with a higher scoop % and/or a higher range factor over a few inches of reach range.  There's so much more that a guy shouldn't be off the list just because he's sub-6' righty.  From what I've seen, height matters more for pitching and hitting than it does for fielding.

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

Well, I do not think anyone is going to argue with your conclusion that it's preferable to have an exceptional fielding first baseman who is shorter than a poor fielding first baseman who is taller.  However, the point of my post was that reach is a factor in a first baseman's defensive ability (i.e. all things being equal, it's preferable to have a first baseman with a long reach).  To what extent does extra reach matter, I am not sure. Surprisingly, I have not found any articles addressing how reach affects a first baseman's defense.  And to be clear, it's not the first baseman's height, but his reach (this is why Elton Brand, who is just 6'8" but with a 7'5" wingspan, was an elite rebounder).

Regarding your statement about the majority of first baseman's chances being routine, I agree, but usually there are several errant throws of varying difficulty for the first baseman every game (low, high, wide).  Now, I expect that most errant throws are in the dirt rather than being too high or too wide, and having a longer reach would not necessarily be an advantage on most of those plays, but in general, longer reach can help save errant throws. In addition to errant throws that would pull a first baseman with less reach off the bag, longer reach is also a benefit in very close plays since the ball does not need to travel as far.  For example, a 6'4" first baseman is probably going to have 7"-8" inches longer reach over a guy who is 5'10".  

Finally, I hear you on the importance of having a guy at fist base that can pick it like a top notch third baseman.  I want that, and believe that very good fielding first basemen do not get the credit they deserve (part of this is probably from the fact that the positional adjustment destroys their perceived defensive value). With that said, first basemen do not see nearly as many chance on batted balls as third basemen because only about 35% of MLB hitters bat from the left side, and there just are not that many opposite field grounders.  

An every day first baseman will usually record around 1,200-1300 putouts.  That is, he is receiving over 1,000 throws where reach has the possibility of being a factor.  How many extra outs does Mountcastle's reach get you over Connor Norby?  Again, I don't know, but 10-15 seems to be a very reasonable assumption.  

 

Excellent post. Sums up my feelings 100%. Nobody is saying is a short 1B can't be good, but first base is the easiest position to teach and play, so the chance of finding a tall guy who can perform as well as a short guy there is pretty good. 

While we're talking first baseman's in the system, let me throw another name out there in Jordan Westburg. the more I watch Westburg's arm, the more I think his best position may end up at 1B. Can he play 2B and an adequate 3B, sure, but the arm strength is going to cost you those spectacular plays. He's got the hands and quickness (right now) to play SS, but again, don't expect those spectacular plays that require a strong accurate arm. At 6-3, he might be the best fit over there if the infield is taken up by Henderson, Ortiz and Norby eventually.

[Sports Guy]

Stowers sitting again tonight.

[MCO'sFan]

5 hours ago, Ripken said:

I've been really impressed with his defense of late.  Give him credit that he hasn't taken his struggles at the plate out to the field.

You are right, his defense has been very good lately. But, I hate how he swipes at one hop throws. I yell at my TV every time and he misses about as many as he picks. He it is so aggressive and hard that he often knocks the ball away. Additionally, he swipes across his body instead of on a line back towards the direction of the throw. I have always taught guys to make your hands soft but he does the opposite. To be fair to him though, I am seeing more and more guys do this. I am not sure if it is the in vogue way of teaching it now or if it simply looks cooler. 

[spiritof66]

Two things I would add:

1. Reach is important, but so is the ability to know when to desert the base and make a catch when the throw is too high or wide to be reached. From watching lots of first sackers who seem unable to get this right, I suppose this skill -- in effect, the ability to abandon the learned habit of keeping a foot on the bag -- is harder to develop than it looks.

2. Lefthanded first basemen have an advantage in taking throws, in making throws (especially to second), in tagging runners on pick-offs, and in ground ball range (probably an increased advantage if shifting is banned or limited). That's a limitation to the first-base defense of converted infielders and catchers.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Two things I would add:

1. Reach is important, but so is the ability to know when to desert the base and make a catch when the throw is too high or wide to be reached. From watching lots of first sackers who seem unable to get this right, I suppose this skill -- in effect, the ability to abandon the learned habit of keeping a foot on the bag -- is harder to develop than it looks.

2. Lefthanded first basemen have an advantage in taking throws, in making throws (especially to second), in tagging runners on pick-offs, and in ground ball range (probably an increased advantage if shifting is banned or limited). That's a limitation to the first-base defense of converted infielders and catchers.

I'd be curious to know if Mountcastle has ever started a 3-6-3 DP or a 3-6-1 DP ever.    It's something a Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly was very good at.    I also don't think Mountcastle has much range.   He does a pretty good job overall but I think if we had a really slick fielding 1B, you'd realize what you had been missing.    If he was hitting, we probably wouldn't care.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'd be curious to know if Mountcastle has ever started a 3-6-3 DP or a 3-6-1 DP ever.    It's something a Keith Hernandez or Don Mattingly was very good at.    I also don't think Mountcastle has much range.   He does a pretty good job overall but I think if we had a really slick fielding 1B, you'd realize what you had been missing.    If he was hitting, we probably wouldn't care.

Mountcastle has started 2 DP’s this year and 6 in his career.   That is not a very high total.  Jose Abreu has 12 this year.  However, only 18 1B have started more than two DPs this year.   

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mountcastle has started 2 DP’s this year and 6 in his career.   That is not a very high total.  Jose Abreu has 12 this year.  However, only 18 1B have started more than two DPs this year.   

Sorry to ask but you're so good at it.   Can you tell if any of those DP's were 3-3?  Meaning the 1B catches a line drive and steps on 1st to double off the runner.

[MCO'sFan]

18 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

You are right, his defense has been very good lately. But, I hate how he swipes at one hop throws. I yell at my TV every time and he misses about as many as he picks. He it is so aggressive and hard that he often knocks the ball away. Additionally, he swipes across his body instead of on a line back towards the direction of the throw. I have always taught guys to make your hands soft but he does the opposite. To be fair to him though, I am seeing more and more guys do this. I am not sure if it is the in vogue way of teaching it now or if it simply looks cooler. 

The pick last night on Gunnar’s dive play was excellent. Exactly what I was talking about. Soft hands and back in line with the throw. It was nice to see. I hope it continues. 

[mikezpen]

BTW, Stowers has sat for about 4 games. Why?

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, mikezpen said:

BTW, Stowers has sat for about 4 games. Why?

Computer program is spitting out lineups without him.