Is there a 3rd #1 prospect in the Minors for the O's?

[bluedog]

Beginning of next year, an O's prospect has a huge start to the season and rises to #1 status following in Adley and Gunnar's footsteps.

Who is it and why?

Edited September 1, 2022 by bluedog

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Beginning of next year, an O's prospect has a huge start to the season and rises to #1 status following in Adley and Gunnar's footsteps.

Who is it and why?

The possibilities would be:

1. Grayson Rodriguez, if he comes back on fire and has a David Price-like end to this season.

2. Jackson Holliday, if next hear he is awesome.

3. Coby Mayo, if he crushes for the first half of next year. (very low prob)

4. Joey Ortiz, if he stays hot in AAA and crushes in the first half next year. (super low prob)

5. Jud Fabian, super low probability, but is a legit CF and is on fire in a small sample size.  

As awesome as Cowser is, I don't think he provides enough CF defense or prodigious power. He'd have to hit like .350+ in AAA to have a chance, IMO.

[glenn__davis]

I think Rodriguez and Holliday are the only realistic options.

LookinUp highlighted the Rodriguez scenario above correctly I think.

Holliday would have to just have a monster start to the season considering how young he is.  Seems very unlikely; but I never would have expected Henderson to make the jump that he did either.

[bluedog]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The possibilities would be:

1. Grayson Rodriguez, if he comes back on fire and has a David Price-like end to this season.

2. Jackson Holliday, if next hear he is awesome.

3. Coby Mayo, if he crushes for the first half of next year. (very low prob)

4. Joey Ortiz, if he stays hot in AAA and crushes in the first half next year. (super low prob)

5. Jud Fabian, super low probability, but is a legit CF and is on fire in a small sample size.  

As awesome as Cowser is, I don't think he provides enough CF defense or prodigious power. He'd have to hit like .350+ in AAA to have a chance, IMO.

Isn't it amazing that you can even make a plausible case for 5+ players in  our system after we've already graduated 4 of our Top 10 or so players this year?

Ain't the beer cold!

[Frobby]

I’m not so sure Rodriguez isn’t a better prospect than either Rutschman or Henderson.  But I don’t see a path to no. 1 for him.  Not enough time left this year for him to gain helium and he’ll be in the majors by early next year, hopefully Opening Day.  

I’d say Holliday has the best shot, but I’d be shocked if that happened by 12 months from now.  
 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The possibilities would be:

1. Grayson Rodriguez, if he comes back on fire and has a David Price-like end to this season.

2. Jackson Holliday, if next hear he is awesome.

3. Coby Mayo, if he crushes for the first half of next year. (very low prob)

4. Joey Ortiz, if he stays hot in AAA and crushes in the first half next year. (super low prob)

5. Jud Fabian, super low probability, but is a legit CF and is on fire in a small sample size.  

As awesome as Cowser is, I don't think he provides enough CF defense or prodigious power. He'd have to hit like .350+ in AAA to have a chance, IMO.

You can’t put Ortiz on your list and then automatically take off Cowser.

The only 2 are Holliday and Mayo.

Grayson will be up here before he can get to #1.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Isn't it amazing that you can even make a plausible case for 5+ players in  our system after we've already graduated 4 of our Top 10 or so players this year?

Ain't the beer cold!

You can’t make a case for 5 guys..at least not one that is logical.  That is just naming names.

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You can’t make a case for 5 guys..at least not one that is logical.  That is just naming names.

I agree.   Put it this way, if all the players mentioned above are candidates, so are 100 other guys from other organizations.  

That said, if you told me last year at this time that Gunnar Henderson would be considered the no. 1 prospect in baseball, I would have laughed in your face.  So it’s certainly true that players can make huge leaps in a year.  
 

[btdart20]

Jackson by mid-season is slim chance but non-zero chance.  For Grayson to jump the other guys would mean he gains by attrition.

But I’m going to play the name fun names with…

Povich if he can gain 3-5 MPH.  He’s currently 6’3” and only listed at 185 lbs.  There’s room for muscle and velo gains.  He’s a lefty with great splits against righties.  Plus command, plus CB and SL.  His FB is low 90’s. If he can get that to a consistent 95+ with some ride…  I honestly don’t think he’s got a shot at #1 prospect in baseball but it sure would be fun to see him storming those castles!

[RZNJ]

Holliday is the only one with a real chance to get it by the end of next season.

[jamalshw]

Henderson and Rodriguez will be near the top of all lists this winter as neither will lose their eligibility. Jackson Holliday is already a top-20 prospect and is the next most likely guy to be in the #1 conversation as both Henderson and Rodriguez will be off the lists by the time the midseason updates happen next year. I don't think anyone else has a chance. 

That said, I do think it's still amazing that even after Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez graduate next year, the team will still have Holliday, Cowser, Westburg and Mayo as likely top-100 guys in next year's midseason rankings. Beyond them, Ortiz and Norby could squeeze their way into the rankings and there's always next year's draft (though we don't know where our first pick will be). 

 

[Alasdaire]

I do think Grayson is worthy, but prospect rankings have consciously shied away from putting pitchers number one overall in recent years. I think for that reason alone, Holliday is more likely.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree.   Put it this way, if all the players mentioned above are candidates, so are 100 other guys from other organizations.  

That said, if you told me last year at this time that Gunnar Henderson would be considered the no. 1 prospect in baseball, I would have laughed in your face.  So it’s certainly true that players can make huge leaps in a year.  
 

Henderson is the only reason I say Mayo has a chance.

I mean, if you are really looking for some kind of a sleeper guy, it would be Basallo.  If he just takes an enormous leap, after showing well as a 17 y/o, maybe he has some chance but that yes obviously very unlikely.

Realistically, the only answer is Holliday.

While Mayo has the offensive profile, he may not have the defensive profile to go with it.

[Master Guns]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The possibilities would be:

1. Grayson Rodriguez, if he comes back on fire and has a David Price-like end to this season.

2. Jackson Holliday, if next hear he is awesome.

3. Coby Mayo, if he crushes for the first half of next year. (very low prob)

4. Joey Ortiz, if he stays hot in AAA and crushes in the first half next year. (super low prob)

5. Jud Fabian, super low probability, but is a legit CF and is on fire in a small sample size.  

As awesome as Cowser is, I don't think he provides enough CF defense or prodigious power. He'd have to hit like .350+ in AAA to have a chance, IMO.

Agree with others, that Holliday is the one with the most realistic chance.

In addition to his domination of AA and his AAA performance, IIRC, Gunnar had the jump largely because he greatly reduced his chase rates and increased his BB%. With that said, I don't think Holliday has had enough ABs to show any "holes" that he has to fix like Gunnar did. Which would eliminate an unexpected turnaround to help quickly catapult him.

With that said, if he plays the second half of the season in AA next year and exceeds his expected outcome by a large margin than there is small chance, but I would expect the real possibility to come in '24. 

[Alasdaire]

43 minutes ago, Master Guns said:

Agree with others, that Holliday is the one with the most realistic chance.

In addition to his domination of AA and his AAA performance, IIRC, Gunnar had the jump largely because he greatly reduced his chase rates and increased his BB%. With that said, I don't think Holliday has had enough ABs to show any "holes" that he has to fix like Gunnar did. Which would eliminate an unexpected turnaround to help quickly catapult him.

With that said, if he plays the second half of the season in AA next year and exceeds his expected outcome by a large margin than there is small chance, but I would expect the real possibility to come in '24. 

I think a large part in Gunnar being ranked where he was is age. You can tolerate less-than-perfect metrics if the player is younger than every pitcher he faces. Same logic would apply to Holliday if he advances quickly.