Jay Jaffe Dissects Rutschman’s impact on the O’s

[forphase1]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

According to BR, Chirinos has a .4 dWAR this year.  Severino was .6.

Severino has a better pop time in 2021 than Chirinos in 2022.  I believe the framing stats for Severino in 2021 were better than Chirinos this year as well.

Severinos defense is becoming the Jack Cust falling of OH.

As Frobby noted Severino allowed 10 passed balls and 66 wild pitches in 883 innings last year.  Chirinos allowed 3 passed balls and 18 wild pitches in 479 innings.

That is more important in my opinion that pop time and maybe even framing.  Now how much was pitching versus catching we can argue, but either way the numbers are a stark difference.  Severinos defense deserves to become the Jack Cust falling.  

 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Tony, when you look at backup catchers across the league, who's the gold standard. Seems to me they are all pretty limited in one way or another. Have you got a favorite? Who would you target next year for the O's?

I'll be honest and say that I haven't done the research to answer this questions effectively. I will say though that I think great pitch framing and blocking should be priorities when looking for a backup catcher along with the ability to control the running game, a skill that will be more needed when the bases get bigger next year.

 

[Tony-OH]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

According to BR, Chirinos has a .4 dWAR this year.  Severino was .6.

Severino has a better pop time in 2021 than Chirinos in 2022.  I believe the framing stats for Severino in 2021 were better than Chirinos this year as well.

Severinos defense is becoming the Jack Cust falling of OH.

of SOME posters on OH. You know better than to generalize the board.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Tony, when you look at backup catchers across the league, who's the gold standard. Seems to me they are all pretty limited in one way or another. Have you got a favorite? Who would you target next year for the O's?

Not Tony, so my opinion is worth what you're paying for...  We're talking about a back-up catcher.  Yes, he's going to play 30ish% of the time.  And he's probably the most important/regular back-up because of that.  However, for any cost-conscious team it's a matter of opportunity costs.  Could spending $1m (or whatever) over league minimum for a known back-up be better served adding to the pot of money we would give to a TOR FA (for example)?  

Maybe the answer to that is "every win counts in 2023, so we know Adley will not be catching 30% of the games.  Let's make sure there is as small of a drop off at C as possible."  FWIW, this is the only way I see us paying over league minimum for a back-up catcher.

Maybe the answer is "if we upgrade other spots enough, then our projections put us scoring enough to make the playoffs where Adley will play every game."  This is where cost-conscious teams tend to land.

Maybe the answer is "we value receiving/blocking skills and not as much about arm strength/pop times/offense... so we can play this guy against non-stealing teams in the right match-up and still get Adley enough rest."  And this can still be done without spending much over minimum to 'get our guy'.

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Perhaps but that’s a tallest midget contest.

I think this frames the whole back-up catcher discussion as only the eloquence of SG can do.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

According to BR, Chirinos has a .4 dWAR this year.  Severino was .6.

Severino has a better pop time in 2021 than Chirinos in 2022.  I believe the framing stats for Severino in 2021 were better than Chirinos this year as well.

Severinos defense is becoming the Jack Cust falling of OH.

I already explained one of the reasons why WAR doesn’t really capture catcher defense.  There’s also the impact of pitch-calling, body language, knowing when to go to the mound, what to say and how to say it.  

Now, am I saying that Chirinos was better at all those things, and those outweigh the other things you mentioned that are more quantifiable?  No, I am simply saying I don’t really know, but I do think those things are important and not really captured by WAR.

And I do know this: Hyde mentioned several times early in the season (pre-Adley) that the catching was much better this year.   I believe Elias mentioned it too.   And if they feel strongly enough about that to mention it several times, I tend to believe them, because it’s not something they needed to say.   
 

[Chelsea_Phil]

Is it correct to say that since balls and strikes will be electronically called next season, pitch framing will mean nothing?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Is it correct to say that since balls and strikes will be electronically called next season, pitch framing will mean nothing?

No.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Is it correct to say that since balls and strikes will be electronically called next season, pitch framing will mean nothing?

A quick Google says no it's not correct.

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I already explained one of the reasons why WAR doesn’t really capture catcher defense.  There’s also the impact of pitch-calling, body language, knowing when to go to the mound, what to say and how to say it.  

Now, am I saying that Chirinos was better at all those things, and those outweigh the other things you mentioned that are more quantifiable?  No, I am simply saying I don’t really know, but I do think those things are important and not really captured by WAR.

And I do know this: Hyde mentioned several times early in the season (pre-Adley) that the catching was much better this year.   I believe Elias mentioned it too.   And if they feel strongly enough about that to mention it several times, I tend to believe them, because it’s not something they needed to say.   
 

I can’t believe a manager would praise his current players!

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know that Chirinos’ terrible season was that foreseeable.  He’s been a solid offensive catcher in his career and in 2021.   He’s never been a great framer but his numbers this year are way worse than his norm.  

Even with his shortcomings, Hyde pointed out numerous times that he and Benboom were big defensive upgrades over what we had last year.  He said that before Rutschman ever showed up.

And, I think he showed a take-charge demeanor with the pitchers that we never saw last year.   He’s also been a good clubhouse and dugout guy by all accounts.  

So I don’t blame Elias for bringing him in to be our starter until Adley arrived and then the backup.  It didn’t work out as well as we would have hoped, and we need to look for another solution for next year.  
 

You say this a lot. So who do you blame? It's somebody's responsibility that he was signed. Maybe the word blame bothers you, so let's change the word to responsibility. Who's responsibility was it that Chirinos turned out to be bad? Is no one responsible?

I'm guessing then you say Elias/Sig is NOT responsible for the good players that they have brought in either right? 

I assume in your way of looking at things no one is really responsible for any good or bad actions by players, right? Must be nice that no matter how a player performs, the men who signed them to play on the team bare no responsibility for their performance.

I tell you what, I'd love to work for you. Be able to make any move or decision and not having to take responsibility must be a great place to work.

I have a little different way of looking at things. Elias is the boss and makes the final decisions. I believe he bears responsibility for the good and the bad performance of players, especially if he choose them over other players. Now I'm not talking injury related issues which I would agree, that's not their responsibility, but yes, when you sign and play well below replacement level players all season and don't upgrade and your team falls a few games short of a playoff bid, then yes, I believe the boss (Elias) deserves to be held responsible.

 

[Chelsea_Phil]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

A quick Google says no it's not correct.

So no electronic ball/strike calling next season?

[Chelsea_Phil]

Oh, it looks like it will be implemented in 2024

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Oh, it looks like it will be implemented in 2024

Considering how it went this season I'd say it's only about 80% that it's ready for 2024.

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You say this a lot. So who do you blame? It's somebody's responsibility that he was signed. Maybe the word blame bothers you, so let's change the word to responsibility. Who's responsibility was it that Chirinos turned out to be bad? Is no one responsible?

I'm guessing then you say Elias/Sig is NOT responsible for the good players that they have brought in either right? 

I assume in your way of looking at things no one is really responsible for any good or bad actions by players, right? Must be nice that no matter how a player performs, the men who signed them to play on the team bare no responsibility for their performance.

I tell you what, I'd love to work for you. Be able to make any move or decision and not having to take responsibility must be a great place to work.

I have a little different way of looking at things. Elias is the boss and makes the final decisions. I believe he bears responsibility for the good and the bad performance of players, especially if he choose them over other players. Now I'm not talking injury related issues which I would agree, that's not their responsibility, but yes, when you sign and play well below replacement level players all season and don't upgrade and your team falls a few games short of a playoff bid, then yes, I believe the boss (Elias) deserves to be held responsible.

 

Obviously he is responsible.  And I think you had a really good point in a prior post that when a player is 38, you know there’s a risk they can fall off the table quickly.   I’m just saying that of the possible range of outcomes, this was pretty near the bottom.  For example, the ZiPS mean projection for Chirinos was .693, Steamer was .681.  And those projections factor in age, etc.  

We all know that no GM is going to turn out to be right every time.  If he’s right more often than the average GM, and has good processes for making decisions, that’s how I judge him.  Just because a decision didn’t work out doesn’t mean it was a bad decision.   Just like a manager can pick the right time to pinch hit or change pitchers but the player can still fail to come through.  It’s the nature of the business.  

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many games did Adley have in Norfolk after his rehab ended?

Lemme guess... more than enough for you to shake your fist at Elias and scream "service time manipulation!!!!"?