Do we actually need a TOR starter?

[Es4M11]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You hit the nail on the head.  Whether it makes sense to go with the lesser but more cost-efficient pitcher depends on what the team will do with the savings.  

We also have to be a little forward-thinking.   Elias feels he’s built a team that organically should be getting better each year for the next several years as the prospects graduate and gain experience.  So is it worth it to spend $19 mm on Bassitt for 2023 when he’ll probably be very good, if he’s also going to be here soaking up $19 mm in 2026 when he’s no longer any good and the team has less payroll flexibility because Adley’s in Arb 2, Gunnar, Grayson and Hall are in Arb 1, etc.?   At that point you might have a much better use for that $19 mm to try to put the team over the top.  

Now, you can go too far with that kind of thinking.  There’s a million things that could happen between now and 2026.  But I do think that extending an older player for a year or two longer than you really want to can have downside at the time you’re least likely to want it.  

 

Four years for a guy like Bassitt is not ideal, I think everyone can agree on that. That said, this team has or should have tons of financial flexibility, why can't they get creative with the contract structure? What's wrong with a heavily front loaded deal? Let's go with your numbers of $19mmAAV for Bassitt, and let's assume that he gets four years on the deal for a total of 4yr/76mm (I think he gets more). Is something like 23/23/20/10 completely unreasonable for a team that has plenty of room to absorb the first 3 years of that contract, even if it goes bad from day 1.

One thing is for sure, I'm going to very disappointed as a fan if they kick the can another year on free agency. It concerns me that if the front office doesn't supplement the roster now that we could lose some of the momentum built in 2022. Kind of reminiscent of 2015 and how the club let the momentum gained in 2014 stagnate instead of building on it.

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I don't buy that for a couple reasons:

1. I don't necessarily agree that the first year is always or even significantly likely to be the best year.    I know the age curve exists but it's not so rigid that the decline is a straight line.  
2. Elias has repeatedly said he is looking for something sustainable here where we have a constant influx of talent, and he shouldn't be thinking in terms of "windows".   When the Adley window is closing the window should be opening for someone who is now a junior in high school but who will be our next great player.   So we shouldn't be worried about windows.

Agreed, I don't think he is necessarily right about the first year thing. I do think short term contracts have the least amount of risk, and the only way to get elite guys for a year or two is through trade. It could be we may be just ruling out long term elite contracts altogether

 

[Too Tall]

Not at the going prices in FA. The Orioles won 83 games last year with pitching most labeled going in as suspect at best. I, for one, think the current group would rate better than last year's going into 2023 off what we saw in 2022. Sure we could use some more pitching because there is no such thing as enough. Hence, the addition of another starter who would fill in the middle to back end on a short (one or two-year contract) makes sense to me. Then let's see what GRod, Bradish, Hall, Wells, and Kramer can do. And then hopefully a half year of Means. Gibson is a good add to this group IMO. 

I want to believe we are set up to be better than a lot believe. I like our young guys!! Can't wait to see them compete. Like it or not, I think we are going to have to acquire through trade and/or draft and then further develop our own TOR starters. 

[owknows]

In the timeless words of Buck Showalter....

"Allahkargahz"

[btdart20]

My $0.02…. The TOR isn’t where (in general) championship competitors will apply an 80/20 principle if they don’t grow the arms organically.

[now]

A check back to where we stand now...

It's comical to see Roster Resource put Kyle Gibson as our #1, but that's where we are, at the moment. I'll list our rotation (and back end) with their order and then add my own "true" ranking for a wildcard team (albeit an unscientific peg) in parentheses. 2023 only. 

1. Gibson (4-5)

2. Bradish (3-4)

3. Kremer (3-4)

4. Wells (3-4)

5. Rodriguez (2-3)

6. Voth (5)

(IL) Means (3)

8. Hall (4)

9. Zimmermann (5)

I predict we'll still see a FA signing (ceiling 3) and trade to improve the above (ceiling 2). That improvement should get us the wildcard, while allowing further evaluation of the entire cast ahead of 2024. By that time a lot of key questions and moving parts will have settled on the position side too.

I'm impatient like every year at this time, but predict the above will help gain some wins. Maybe a summer trade will be what it takes for the rotation to upgrade enough to matter... and/or we can finally get some individual "liftoffs" from within (Bradish, Kremer, Rodriguez, Hall).