Head spinning options for Elias this off season

[wildcard]

Elias goal this off season probably is to 1) add a starter that improves the rotation, 2) add a bat to improve the offense, and 3) improve the back up catching.

If Tyler Wells moves to the pen, that adds quality depth there.

One way to address the first two is through free agency.  

1) There appears to be 6-10 different starters on the market that could offer a under 4.00 ERA to the rotation.  When Elias considers that  the Wall plus his pitching coaches and analytic staff  have shown they can improve pitcher's performance. 

2) There are several bats on the free agent market including Pederson, Abreu and others that may help boost the offense.

With one of the lower payrolls in baseball there should be money to go the FA direction without trading from the major league roster or any of the high profile prospects.

3) Elias may need to trade to improve the backup catching over Gallagher but that should not take a top prospect.

There are numerous quality in house players being recognized in many ways.  And there are ways to fit these players together  that adds depth to cover injuries and non performance.

#1 prospect Gunnar can play 3B but also has the range to spend time at SS.  Mateo's superior  FB defense has him playing SS but his bat may not allow him to play everyday.  Urias' has a GG at 3B but he has more experience playing 2B.   Westburg's best defensive position may be 2B but  he has the size and infielders sense to backup 1B.   And the bat to DH.  The speed to play the OF corners.  He could be the man of many gloves.  There are way to find playing time for the O's Minor League Player of the Year.

Mullins, Hays and Santander are established outfielders.  GG  finalist  Mullins is hard to replace in CF though he does have some trouble hitting lefties.  Hays covers the large left field with his speed and arm but he has trouble playing hurt and therefore needs to spend time on the IL when injured.  He had an 830 OPS in June before his injuries hit.

Santander's bat and plate discipline improved and I find his glove average in spite of some who are not believers.  He can DH.  Stowers has shown a good bat at AAA and can get playing time in RF and in left on the road.  He has some things to improve on offensively and defensively.  McKenna plays all three OF positions and hits lefties to platoon with Mullins in center when needed.  If everyone is healthy I don't see room for Vavra but there are always injuries and he has options.

Adley gets 120 games catching and is probably runner up for ROY.

With this talent and the addition of another bat  and starter there is no hurry to promote Ortiz, Cowser, Norby or DL Hall.  Let them begin the season at AAA and backup the major league roster in case of injury.  As they prove themselves June/July gets more interesting  with Santander and Means getting closer to free agency. But in a pennant race it may be hard to part with their talent.

Talent and Depth win pennants.  When players get injured as they always do having little drop-off in the replacements is  a great position to be in.

I see no trouble with Manager of the Year Hyde getting the most out of these players.

I don't  know if Elias trades or spends on free agents or both.  The possibilities are head spinning in a good way.

 

 

[Frobby]

I agree that there are many directions Elias can go this winter.   It’s hard to even speculate on what he’ll do because there are so many possibilities.  It’s potentially the most interesting offseason we’ve had since 2003-04; conversely it could be the most frustrating if nothing much materializes.   This will be fascinating to watch, though the pace of the offseason always seems agonizingly slow to me.  

[Sports Guy]

There are several key guys this offseason in terms of fo you trust them, where do they play and who gets traded?

[LookinUp]

I've said this before, but there are so many angles Elias can play, I don't know where to begin with predictions.

My hope is that he turns good players/prospects into great ML players through trades, free agency or player development.

The choices he makes need to be to find a couple/few more great players. Not to fall in love with good players.

[Moose Milligan]

TL; DR

Yep, there's a lot he can do, it should be a very interesting offseason.  First offseason I've been looking forward to in awhile.  It'll be nice not to have to look at whoever we get in the Rule 5 as our big get for the offseason, at least I hope.

 

[foxfield]

I think this lays out the head spinning choices pretty well.  I think however, the reality is that even if you bake in a healthy expectation that the Orioles in house pitching improves in 2023, the Orioles need not 1 but 2 SP that can improve the rotation.

Maybe the budget does not allow for 2 FA pitchers, but I hope that it does as the current commitments make this an excellent time to increase spending.

But count me in the group that simply believes that there is a huge variety of paths that can be taken this offseason.  It should be fascinating.  I just hope we see continued improvement and am trying my damnedest to remain flexible as to what that could be....

[fitzi22]

I think the time to make a significant trade is now.  We have a plethora of prospects at our disposal and we won’t be able to play them all.  We need to go for a TOR guy like Corbin Burnes who has 2 years of arbitration left and Milwaukee apparently has no intention of extending him.  It will probably take a package that includes DL Hall, a young infielder like Norby and an established but relatively cheap MLB player like Urias.  It may take one other lower level young prospect like Leandro Arias to get the deal done.
 

Burnes is 27, has had 3 consecutive amazing seasons and won the Cy Young last year.  

[Tony-OH]

On the bright side, he's cornered the market on AAA backup catchers, so teams will be struggling to find one this offseason.

By the way, I did some digging and talked to some people in the industry about the Bemboom thing and EVERY single person have no idea why Bemboom was a priority to keep from becoming a minor league free agent.

As one "Scout" who saw him in AAA this year said, and I'm paraphrasing, "He can't hit and he wasn't even good defensively." 

Another said "They apparently are going off some metrics in his big league time that weren't terrible, but he's not very good."

Anyways, it will be interesting to see what route they go this offseason. They have some depth at SS and 2B if they consider both Westburg and Ortiz ready, and most do think they are major league ready.

Their outfield depth may not be as deep as some think at the high levels of the system, with Cowser getting mixed reactions (more on that in his scouting profile).

 

[Sports Guy]

I just think we need a lot more talent on this team, so while they can go a lot of different directions, the one direction that is crucial is that they greatly upgrade the top of this roster. 
 

Im confident in the bottom half of the roster but it’s the top half (maybe more top 1/3) that needs a major upgrade.

[LookinUp]

45 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 even if you bake in a healthy expectation that the Orioles in house pitching improves in 2023, the Orioles need not 1 but 2 SP that can improve the rotation.

Don't forget that the shift is going away. Pitching across the sport won't be as good, most likely.

[Aristotelian]

28 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

I think the time to make a significant trade is now.  We have a plethora of prospects at our disposal and we won’t be able to play them all.  We need to go for a TOR guy like Corbin Burnes who has 2 years of arbitration left and Milwaukee apparently has no intention of extending him.  It will probably take a package that includes DL Hall, a young infielder like Norby and an established but relatively cheap MLB player like Urias.  It may take one other lower level young prospect like Leandro Arias to get the deal done.
 

Burnes is 27, has had 3 consecutive amazing seasons and won the Cy Young last year.  

I really like this approach. We have the flexibility to add payroll, but we also have some pretty good trade chips without the space to play them. In addition to Norby, I think Westburg and Ortiz are others who might be more valuable in trade than they are to the MLB club. Woodruff is also really interesting and could be a significantly cheaper.

Another target for an aggressive trade approach is Ohtani. He would probably require an epic overpay but would instantly make us a true WS contender. Unfortunately he would come with only one year of control and might cost Holiday. 

My best guess is Elias will use our payroll flexibility to look to extend Rutschman and Gunnar, while taking on arb2-arb3 veterans like Burnes or Woodruff. You never know, but I don't see him doing a complete 180 and signing a premium free agent. Elias is all about exploiting inefficiencies and there is no comparative advantage for the Orioles when bidding on free agents in the open market. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I really like this approach. We have the flexibility to add payroll, but we also have some pretty good trade chips without the space to play them. In addition to Norby, I think Westburg and Ortiz are others who might be more valuable in trade than they are to the MLB club. Woodruff is also really interesting and could be a significantly cheaper.

Another target for an aggressive trade approach is Ohtani. He would probably require an epic overpay but would instantly make us a true WS contender. Unfortunately he would come with only one year of control and might cost Holiday. 

My best guess is Elias will use our payroll flexibility to look to extend Rutschman and Gunnar, while taking on arb2-arb3 veterans like Burnes or Woodruff. You never know, but I don't see him doing a complete 180 and signing a premium free agent. Elias is all about exploiting inefficiencies and there is no comparative advantage for the Orioles when bidding on free agents in the open market. 

Payroll flexibility really has nothing to do with those extensions.

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Payroll flexibility really has nothing to do with those extensions.

How so? Just that they would be backloaded to cover arb and free agency years? 

[btdart20]

Agreed on the veritable plethora of options.  

I'm less concerned about the specific solution.  But more interested in the guiding principles.  I hope Elias:

1. Trades from the top of the deck as much as possible (i.e. the established ML players) who can be back-filled with org depth (i.e. that's how small/mid-market teams compete with higher payroll - and how larger market teams differentiate themselves like the Astros/Correa/Pena sitch).  

2. Does not lose sight of the org building process of stacking talent in the minors.  Not saying we trade Mullins for 5 lottery tickets, but I am saying if we have a replaceable guy who can pick up a high-ish floor/ceiling position of need in the org (SP, 1B, CF) then we seriously consider it.  I've used the term rebalancing the portfolio/cashing in the gains in the past to fill the org gaps.  The big picture matters for long-term competitiveness and allows for picking wise spots to...

3. Practice the 'swing decisions' they preach and throw some money around the FA market!  But the Angelos family issues...  Hope John can compartmentalize that mess and give Elias a nice budget to work with.  Feels like Boston is down, Toronto needs pitching, NYY might not resign Judge, and Tampa has offensive holes.  I don't think it'll take much more than what we currently have to compete for the AL East title!  (Of course, I'm making some significant assumptions of Adley, Gunnar, a rebound for Mounty, and some combo of Urias/Westburg/Ortiz/Norby crushes 2B.)  Just need TOR help and some hitting depth.

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

He can acquire any player, other than catcher, insert them into the starting lineup. Starting pitcher, bullpen piece, closer, setup man, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, even CF or DH. Very versatile