FA Target - Jameson Taillon

[RZNJ]

The more I look at Taillon, the more he seems like an Elias type of target.   Can he sell Taillon as a #3 starter to fans.  Not sure there.  I think most would be happy if he wasn’t the best pitcher we acquired but back to why I think he makes sense.

Fangraphs forecast his contract for 3-36 to 3-42.  Hardly breaking the bank.   Taillon provides the floor of a “better Lyles” with some upside.    He had his 2nd TJ surgery in 2019 but started 29 games in 2021 and 32 games last year.   He turns 31 next week so you’d be getting his age 31-33 seasons.   Fangraphs had Taillon at 1.9 WAR in 2021 and 2.3 WAR in 2023.   That seems to be about his floor as he’s been pretty consistent throughout his career even being over 3 WAR twice with the Pirates.   
 

I think Taillon is one of the safest FA pitcher targets when you consider track record, durability (he posts up), dollar commitment, with some upside.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Than than 5 1/3 IP per start and a 4.08 ERA/100 ERA+ over the last 2 years. I would really hope we'd be aiming higher than that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Than than 5 1/3 IP per start and a 4.08 ERA/100 ERA+ over the last 2 years. I would really hope we'd be aiming higher than that.

*Less than 5 1/3 IP per start

[Jim'sKid26]

He's better than Lyles.

Over last 4 yrs, Not counting 2020, he has averaged 137 IP/yr. 8.1 K/9. He was worth $18.1M last year. 

If he is the only SP that the O's sign I don't think he moves the needle enough. If he's the second SP they sign then he's a welcome addition to the pitching staff. 

I hope they are aiming higher.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

*Less than 5 1/3 IP per start

5.51 IP start last year. 
 

Rodon was 5.74

[Frobby]

He’s not bad for a secondary target, but I’d like to be aiming higher.  100 ERA+ each of the last two years.  He’s a notch above Lyles in quality but I think we need more. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

He's better than Lyles.

Over last 4 yrs, Not counting 2020, he has averaged 137 IP/yr. 8.1 K/9. He was worth $18.1M last year. 

If he is the only SP that the O's sign I don't think he moves the needle enough. If he's the second SP they sign then he's a welcome addition to the pitching staff. 

I hope they are aiming higher.

I hope that better than Lyles isn't the main goal.

[oriole]

I wouldn’t be upset if he was signed in addition to someone with more upside. But if he is the “top” guy then I’ll be left a little nervous. I don’t think it’s a good idea to count on Voth or Watkins types to be anything more than depth. They’re back up back end types. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

5.51 IP start last year. 
 

Rodon was 5.74

I don't have any interest in Rodon.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I hope that better than Lyles isn't the main goal.

Honestly, if the choice is between Taillon at 3/$36m or Lyles on another 1/$7m deal, I think I would take Lyles.

[Sports Guy]

Better than Lyles shouldn’t be the bar.  

[wildcard]

Taillon would be fine with me if he is the only starter they sign.   I think the improvement comes from Grayson, Kremer, Bradish, Hall and Voth.

I don't understand why Voth would be equaled with Watkins.  Voth is much better IMO.

I am really focused on which ever starter Holt says he can improve.

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by wildcard

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Taillon would be fine with me if he is the only starter they sign.

That would be a clear indication that they are not actually serious about competing in 2023, IMO. 

[wildcard]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That would be a clear indication that they are not actually serious about competing in 2023, IMO. 

I don't agree at all.  Elias has built a development organization.  The pitchers already on the team are expected to improve, starters going deeper in games.   I expect Holt and the defense to improve the pitchers that are added through FA, waiver wire or trades.

I think its very possible that the O's are in the top three in the AL in pitching in 2023.

[waroriole]

If Taillon is the second SP signed, it’s a good move. Especially if we can get him for 2-3 years. Would hope we see a legit TOR SP acquired, even if through a trade.