“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Definitely would need to sell him on the analytics side, the park effects now, and the fact they are going to put a good defense around him. 

Honestly, for the first time in a long time, outside of our sales tax and having to pitch in the AL East, Baltimore is a good place to come for pitchers now.

Any angst we felt at every Mancini fly ball that died at the wall, to me is EASILY outweighed by this right here. Being able to sign pitchers to come to Baltimore is a huge net win IMO. I don't think the switch gets flipped after one season in terms of Camden Yards reputation, but it's one less reason to NOT come to Baltimore.

Edited November 30, 2022 by interloper

[deward]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Any angst we felt at every Mancini fly ball that died at the wall, to me is EASILY outweighed by this right here. Being able to sign pitchers to come to Baltimore is a huge net win IMO. I don't think the switch gets flipped after one season in terms of Camden Yards reputation, but it's one less reason to NOT come to Baltimore.

What pitchers were they not able to sign because of the stadium? I remember pitchers they weren't able to sign because of squabbles over their physicals. I remember pitchers they weren't able to sign because they let themselves get outbid by other teams. I don't recall any that didn't sign because of the park.

Edited November 30, 2022 by deward

[Sports Guy]

Lots of talk about guys like Woodruff and Burnes.  Two talented pitchers.  Burnes has a high upside and is one of the better pitchers in the league.

The problem is, they don’t have much service time left.  Is it worth it to trade a combo of high end MiLers and MLers for 2 years of service time?  And while an extension is possible, how much are you willing to even go there? How many years will you give him? 
 

I think the best course of action for the Os would be to trade for someone who has, at a minimum, 3 years of service time left. See if you can go get a guy who has TOR upside but maybe isn’t there yet. A guy like Edward Cabrera.

Or, see if someone who was once looked at as a TOR guy but has struggled could be available…a player like Lucas Gioloto. He only has 2 years left but if you can get him for less, maybe that’s worth it.

I would love to add Burnes but when you think about something like Hall, Mayo, Westburg and Bradish, do we really want to do that for 2 years of a starter who will make close to 40M In those 2 years and then likely walk away after that?  
 

I can’t say the answer to that is definitely no but I find that to be a tough pill to swallow there.

[MarCakes21]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of talk about guys like Woodruff and Burnes.  Two talented pitchers.  Burnes has a high upside and is one of the better pitchers in the league.

The problem is, they don’t have much service time left.  Is it worth it to trade a combo of high end MiLers and MLers for 2 years of service time?  And while an extension is possible, how much are you willing to even go there? How many years will you give him? 
 

I think the best course of action for the Os would be to trade for someone who has, at a minimum, 3 years of service time left. See if you can go get a guy who has TOR upside but maybe isn’t there yet. A guy like Edward Cabrera.

Or, see if someone who was once looked at as a TOR guy but has struggled could be available…a player like Lucas Gioloto. He only has 2 years left but if you can get him for less, maybe that’s worth it.

I would love to add Burnes but when you think about something like Hall, Mayo, Westburg and Bradish, do we really want to do that for 2 years of a starter who will make close to 40M In those 2 years and then likely walk away after that?  
 

I can’t say the answer to that is definitely no but I find that to be a tough pill to swallow there.

I pass on the trade, unless you have a window for an extension.  I think the resources are better allocated to someone with more control in a trade, or the money to a no2/3 starter.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I pass on the trade, unless you have a window for an extension.  I think the resources are better allocated to someone with more control in a trade, or the money to a no2/3 starter.

This is also where that FA vs trade conversation comes in.

There is zero doubt that Burnes is easily the better pitcher compared to Bassitt or Eovaldi. But, is he all those players better?

The answer is maybe…if many of those guys fizzle out, we may wish we had the better pitcher.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of talk about guys like Woodruff and Burnes.  Two talented pitchers.  Burnes has a high upside and is one of the better pitchers in the league.

The problem is, they don’t have much service time left.  Is it worth it to trade a combo of high end MiLers and MLers for 2 years of service time?  And while an extension is possible, how much are you willing to even go there? How many years will you give him? 
 

I think the best course of action for the Os would be to trade for someone who has, at a minimum, 3 years of service time left. See if you can go get a guy who has TOR upside but maybe isn’t there yet. A guy like Edward Cabrera.

Or, see if someone who was once looked at as a TOR guy but has struggled could be available…a player like Lucas Gioloto. He only has 2 years left but if you can get him for less, maybe that’s worth it.

I would love to add Burnes but when you think about something like Hall, Mayo, Westburg and Bradish, do we really want to do that for 2 years of a starter who will make close to 40M In those 2 years and then likely walk away after that?  
 

I can’t say the answer to that is definitely no but I find that to be a tough pill to swallow there.

My guess is that two things are going to happen.  

1) Elias signs a FA pitcher.

2) Elias trades for another player (either pitcher or bat) that is an expensive contract near its end that the other team needs to get rather of because of payroll issues.

There will be teams that sign this 30-40m/yr FA contracts that then will trade players to control payroll.  I think Elias is waiting to see how that plays out.  The prospect that Elias has to send to the other team in trade will not be one the the O's best is my guess.

Edited December 1, 2022 by wildcard

[Frobby]

On 11/29/2022 at 6:53 AM, Roll Tide said:

Their total revenue should be somewhere around $275 million as @Frobby and I discussed a day or two ago. 

I read today that Disney is buying out MLB’s final 10% interest in BAMTech, which will result in each team receiving $30 mm this year.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-sells-remaining-bamtech-share-to-disney.html

Now, on the one hand that results in a big one-time cash flow jolt.   On the other hand, teams won’t be getting any further dividends from BAMTech’s profits.  So, I can’t say how this will affect spending, now or in the longer term.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I read today that Disney is buying out MLB’s final 10% interest in BAMTech, which will result in each team receiving $30 mm this year.  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-sells-remaining-bamtech-share-to-disney.html

Now, on the one hand that results in a big one-time cash flow jolt.   On the other hand, teams won’t be getting any further dividends from BAMTech’s profits.  So, I can’t say how this will affect spending, now or in the longer term.  

I saw that earlier and meant to post on it.

Overall a huge windfall for teams, a lot of the Orioles increased spending under Dan corresponded with the earlier payouts.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I saw that earlier and meant to post on it.

Overall a huge windfall for teams, a lot of the Orioles increased spending under Dan corresponded with the earlier payouts.

Here’s what BAMTech has yielded for MLB:

- Disney bought a 33% stake for $1 bb in 2016.

- Disney paid $1.58 bb to increase its share to 75% in 2017.

- Disney paid $900 mm for MLB’s remaining 15% stake now.  

So, that’s $3.48 bb MLB received in a 6-year period, exclusive of dividends from the company.  The NHL owned the other 10% and sold out to Disney for $350 mm last year.

Not bad for a side business.   But, that’s the last injection MLB will receive from this particular cash cow.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s what BAMTech has yielded for MLB:

- Disney bought a 33% stake for $1 bb in 2016.

- Disney paid $1.58 bb to increase its share to 75% in 2017.

- Disney paid $900 mm for MLB’s remaining 15% stake now.  

So, that’s $3.48 bb MLB received in a 6-year period, exclusive of dividends from the company.  The NHL owned the other 10% and sold out to Disney for $350 mm last year.

Not bad for a side business.   But, that’s the last injection MLB will receive from this particular cash cow.   
 

Not bad return on a four million dollar investment per team.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I would love to add Burnes but when you think about something like Hall, Mayo, Westburg and Bradish, do we really want to do that for 2 years of a starter who will make close to 40M In those 2 years and then likely walk away after that?  

I don't even think that would be enough for Burnes honestly. Someone out there would almost certainly beat that offer for a legit ace with 2 full years of control. I really think any package from the Orioles for Burnes would need to start with Holliday or Cowser, which is pretty much a complete non-starter for me unless an extension can be worked out prior to the completion of the trade, which will be easier said than done since he is already into his arb years and will already make over $10 million in 2023 with only 1 year left before hitting free agency in search of a 9 figure long-term deal. Ownership would need to pony up the largest contract in franchise history in terms of both AAV and total commitment to get him to forgo a shot at a bidding war for his services on the open market, and I am more than a little skeptical that they would.

[RZNJ]

 

18 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't even think that would be enough for Burnes honestly. Someone out there would almost certainly beat that offer for a legit ace with 2 full years of control. I really think any package from the Orioles for Burnes would need to start with Holliday or Cowser, which is pretty much a complete non-starter for me unless an extension can be worked out prior to the completion of the trade, which will be easier said than done since he is already into his arb years and will already make over $10 million in 2023 with only 1 year left before hitting free agency in search of a 9 figure long-term deal. Ownership would need to pony up the largest contract in franchise history in terms of both AAV and total commitment to get him to forgo a shot at a bidding war for his services on the open market, and I am more than a little skeptical that they would.

Do you really have Cowser as untouchable?   Our 4-9 guys seem like there isn’t a big separation between them.  I think a Hall, Bradish, Cowser, and one of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby gets it done.   We have, arguably, the #1 system in baseball and that’s 3 top ten guys plus Bradish.   That would be tough for any team to beat.  The 2023 could easily withstand that trade and you’d still have 2 of Norby/Ortiz/Westburg.   Losing Cowser hurts but you still have Hays/Mullins/Stowers/Santander for at least the next two years while you hope on Fabian, Beavers, and Mayo (potentially as a RF).  It’s a bold move.  I wouldn’t like to think about it but it would be exciting.

Edited December 1, 2022 by RZNJ

[Es4M11]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This is also where that FA vs trade conversation comes in.

There is zero doubt that Burnes is easily the better pitcher compared to Bassitt or Eovaldi. But, is he all those players better?

The answer is maybe…if many of those guys fizzle out, we may wish we had the better pitcher.

Give me Bassit for 3yr/66mm, and keep the prospects.

Burnes is great, Woodruff too. That said, for what those two will cost in prospects it's probably not in the interest of the Orioles to make such trades at this time, IMHO. Those are the types of deals a team on the brink of championship contention make. The Orioles are not there yet if you ask me. Maybe those are the kind of pitchers we will look to target for 2024 off-season or trade deadline, when the future of the team is a little more clear and the prices to acquire aren't so steep.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Es4M11 said:

Give me Bassit for 3yr/66mm, and keep the prospects.

Burnes is great, Woodruff too. That said, for what those two will cost in prospects it's probably not in the interest of the Orioles to make such trades at this time, IMHO. Those are the types of deals a team on the brink of championship contention make. The Orioles are not there yet if you ask me. Maybe those are the kind of pitchers we will look to target for 2024 off-season or trade deadline, when the future of the team is a little more clear and the prices to acquire aren't so steep.

Few things here:

1) I don't think the prices are going to become less steep down the road.

2) That contract for Bassitt is interesting. That is a lot more per year than we have seen predicted for him.  OTOH, I would rather do that (i.e. the higher AAV) vs giving him the 4th year.  Problem is, I think they may have to go 4 years to get him, which is why I am not particularly excited about getting him.

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Few things here:

1) I don't think the prices are going to become less steep down the road.

2) That contract for Bassitt is interesting. That is a lot more per year than we have seen predicted for him.  OTOH, I would rather do that (i.e. the higher AAV) vs giving him the 4th year.  Problem is, I think they may have to go 4 years to get him, which is why I am not particularly excited about getting him.

Assuming these guys are still with the Brewers next year and they want to deal, the cost to acquire Burnes or Woodruff would almost certainly be lower. Waiting until 2024 a team would only be paying for one season, maybe only a few months versus paying for two full seasons.

These guys would only be rentals for the Orioles. We don't need them to compete for the playoffs this year, and I just don't see a realistic scenario where the orioles are legit  championship contenders in 2023. Save those bullets for 2024, if you ask me.