More upside or downside for 2023?

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Why do we think Mountcastle will improve? Does the two headed hitting coach has a pitch selection improvement elixir?

His HH% and EV was pretty high in 2022.  But his BA wasn’t.  If you look on Baseballsavant at his percentile rankings for batted balls, he’s in the 80 and 90th percentile for the majority of the “expected” stats.  All of that means he hit the ball hard but it just didn’t find holes.  He may never match his 2021 HR total but he should find a few more holes in LF for some hits and doubles.  OBP will likely be bad still since he can’t take a walk.

[MarCakes21]

This probably goes more to the how good are we, but our top 10 hitters last year accumulated 21.8 WAR and and are projected for 24.0 this year.

our starting 5 accumulated 5.8 last year and are projected for 6. 
 

so our positive gains are unsurprisingly some upside in our hitters. Some small gains with hays and RM, and playing time gains for Gunnar and Adley. Now need health to be good

[Jim'sKid26]

43 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

His HH% and EV was pretty high in 2022.  But his BA wasn’t.  If you look on Baseballsavant at his percentile rankings for batted balls, he’s in the 80 and 90th percentile for the majority of the “expected” stats.  All of that means he hit the ball hard but it just didn’t find holes.  He may never match his 2021 HR total but he should find a few more holes in LF for some hits and doubles.  OBP will likely be bad still since he can’t take a walk.

The wall in LF doesn't help him. His OBP is a problem that does seem to be improving. He doesn't play a premium position though his defensive metrics are slightly encouraging. He's still young, but the league knows the holes in his swing. When he's "pitched to" he doesn't adjust. There's a reason Elias is looking for a LH 1B.

[Slight Upward Arc]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Welcome to the board.  Great screen name!  Is that a reference to the bat path, or the path of the team?

Thanks. Longtime lurker and enjoy your posts. An attempt to have a little fun with all the Elias quotes from the past week. 

[sportsfan8703]

Cionel Perez is like Brach was in those great pens. If you keep him in his role, he’s going to dominate. I’ll take Perez in 1.0 IP stints all day. 
 

The biggest thing that worries me is not regression, but injuries. I think we had players have down years last year and we still won, but they were also healthy. We need to add depth to sustain our success. 

[theobird]

This team is on the way up, and there are still a whole lot of guys in the pipeline.  The reports i hear, Means is looking great. it’s not hard to imagine Grayrod and a healthy Means turning our pitching into a strong positive. 

[Sydnor]

I know the majority of posters do not agree with me, but I think there’s more there with Santander. He might not hit as many HRs, but I think the OBP will increase again this year and he will hit around 30 HRs. His barrel percentage, etc. are strong, and, from everything I’ve ever read or heard about him, he’s going to continue to work to exceed what he did last year.

[OriolesMagic83]

18 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I like this line of thought, @Frobby. This is a cool thread. Thanks.

So there are some changes happening in the rules in 2023. The larger bases and the pitch clock should help teams with good overall speed. Mullins, Mateo and maybe Hayes could benefit. There may be others.

The shift ban with help the LH hitters a bit. So Mullins, Santander, Adley, Gunnar and whomever the DH/COF is they add.

Will Adley hit as well when he's catches 115-120. 

Why do we think Mountcastle will improve? Does the two headed hitting coach has a pitch selection improvement elixir?

If Hayes plays less is he more or less effective?

Why would Kremer get worse but Bradish get better?

Not trying to shoot holes in this but just responding to the OP>

Might need a 3rd hitting coach.  Regardless of whether it works, it's cheaper than getting better hitters.  I feel that by the time a hitter has progressed through the minors and made it to the majors he pretty much is the kind of hitter he will be.  Pre Elias, that meant low OBP, high power (or at least trying to hitter for power), and trying to get hits early in a count.  The Elias strategy seems to be working counts, which results in higher BB, but often more K's, hitting the ball hard, but not just trying to hit HR, and working a count.  The mistakes in Cowser's game have been defined by several posters here, but he seems to have an advanced knowledge of the Oriole way to hit as far as working the count and maximizing EV and the proper bat path.  This hitting philosophy seems to be ingrained in hitters at every stop vs. the old way where you would be taught something different at every level.  Just giving Elias credit for instituting organization wide hitting philosophies.

[Roll Tide]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m curious what people think about whether each of our players has more upside or downside for 2023 compared to last year?  Here are my votes.  (U = upside, D = downside, E = even)

Mountcastle - U

Mateo - U (offense)

Urias - U (health and offense)

Henderson - U (playing time and offense)

Hays - U (offense)

Mullins - E

Santander - D

Rutschman - U (playing time and offense)

Stowers - U

Vavra - U

McKenna - E

Kremer - D (ERA worse, but more innings)

Bradish - U (ERA and innings)

Voth - D

Wells - E

Gibson - U

Bautista - E

Tate - E

Perez - D

Baker - U

Hall - U (ERA and innings)

Krehbiel - D

Akin - D

Watkins - D

Overall, I think our offense has more upside than downside.   Unfortunately, I think there’s more downside on the pitching side.

What are your thoughts?

 

Mountcastle - Downside- His game has obvious holes including a long swing

Mateo - U (offense) ….I Agree 

Urias - U (health and offense)….same but I think he’s traded

Henderson - U (playing time and offense) Agree 

Hays - D (offense)- 2 years of just over .300 OBP. He is who he is 

Mullins - U….I’d want Mullins to concentrate on OBP. At .330+ he is a real weapon

Santander - U …I think Santander is peaking 

Rutschman - U (playing time and offense) Agre

Stowers - U - Not sure due to playing time. It’s obvious Elias isn’t sold

Vavra - U- but needs regular ABs 

McKenna - E - Same 

Kremer - U - I think he establishes him self as a solid #2 type

Bradish - U (ERA and innings)Agree 

Voth - D Agree ..not we can hope

Wells - D ….Not as much upside in the pen

Gibson - E - I not optimistic he can match Lyles season

Bautista - E ——Agree but let’s hope he develops another pitch.

Tate - E - he’s peaked 

Perez - U - I think Perez can be filthy

Baker - D - I don’t 

Hall - DOWN ….hope he’s traded. He reminds me of a pitcher in the Calvary. Command will doom him. Too many pitches throw, walks, etc. probably a really good pitcher when he’s  on and bad when he’s not which is about 50% of the time. Struggling with pitch count to five innings in the minors is a red flag to me.

Krehbiel - D Agree 

Akin - U - i think Akin still has growth potential 

Watkins - D - Agree

 

 

 

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Mountcastle - Downside- His game has obvious holes including a long swing

Hays - D (offense)- 2 years of just over .300 OBP. He is who he is 

Perez - U - I think Perez can be filthy

Hall - DOWN ….hope he’s traded. He reminds me of a pitcher in the Calvary. Command will doom him. Too many pitches throw, walks, etc. probably a really good pitcher when he’s  on and bad when he’s not which is about 50% of the time. Struggling with pitch count to five innings in the minors is a red flag to me.

I’m just going to comment on why I disagree on these four, though we had a few other disagreements.  

Mountcastle - yes he has holes, but the gap between his actual and expected stats tells me he’s likely to get better results this year even if he doesn’t really improve his swing or swing decisions.   And, he’s young and still capable of improvement.  Finally, I feel his defense is improving.  

Hays - he could go either way.  I just feel there’s more potential there if he stays healthy and makes some minor improvements than there is downside if he doesn’t.  

Perez - the gap between his ERA and xERA was so big that I just think regression will occur even if he pitches about the same.  

Hall - his ERA was bad enough last year (5.93) that I feel there’s nowhere to go but up.



 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m just going to comment on why I disagree on these four, though we had a few other disagreements.  

Mountcastle - yes he has holes, but the gap between his actual and expected stats tells me he’s likely to get better results this year even if he doesn’t really improve his swing or swing decisions.   And, he’s young and still capable of improvement.  Finally, I feel his defense is improving.  

Hays - he could go either way.  I just feel there’s more potential there if he stays healthy and makes some minor improvements than there is downside if he doesn’t.  

Perez - the gap between his ERA and xERA was so big that I just think regression will occur even if he pitches about the same.  

Hall - his ERA was bad enough last year (5.93) that I feel there’s nowhere to go but up.



 

Hays has 1200 ABs at .309, I’m comfortable that’s who he is. But, hopefully there is a rival GM who thinks he can fix him.

 

Hall, Sure he won’t be in the majors if he’s any worse. My problem is that I’m basing my opinion on his MILB years. He’s struggled to go five innings and walked too many in the minors. A high walk rate usually goes up as you ascend not down.

[btdart20]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Mountcastle - Downside- His game has obvious holes including a long swing

Mateo - U (offense) ….I Agree 

Mountcastle showed improvement going up the middle in 2022.  Yes he’s susceptible to the changeup and slider as well.  But Mateo has a really long swing and similar hitting approach/holes.  Yet you’ve got him with an up arrow. Why up for Mateo?

[forphase1]

On 12/10/2022 at 10:41 AM, Frobby said:

I’m curious what people think about whether each of our players has more upside or downside for 2023 compared to last year?  Here are my votes.  (U = upside, D = downside, E = even)

Mountcastle - U

Mateo - U (offense)

Urias - U (health and offense)

Henderson - U (playing time and offense)

Hays - U (offense)

Mullins - E

Santander - D

Rutschman - U (playing time and offense)

Stowers - U

Vavra - U

McKenna - E

Kremer - D (ERA worse, but more innings)

Bradish - U (ERA and innings)

Voth - D

Wells - E

Gibson - U

Bautista - E

Tate - E

Perez - D

Baker - U

Hall - U (ERA and innings)

Krehbiel - D

Akin - D

Watkins - D

Overall, I think our offense has more upside than downside.   Unfortunately, I think there’s more downside on the pitching side.

What are your thoughts?

 

Some of my thoughts:

 

Mountcastle - E - While I know that his numbers look better when you factor in expecting outcomes versus actual outcomes, I kinda feel like the league has figured him out a bit.  Couple that with the wall effect against him, I don't see 2023 being much better for Mountcastle.  I hope I'm wrong, but that's my feeling.

Mateo - D - Defense will be great, I expect the bat to be similar to last year, without the really good 6 week stretch he gave us this year, thus my D.  If I find any team who is valuing him as a U, trade him if possible IMO.

Urias - U - I think he will improve a bit with health

Henderson - U - Tons of talent left to tap into here.

Hays - E - I think Hays is what Hays is at this point.  An ok player, with injury concerns, but with some tremendous cold streaks.  Wouldn't could on him as a long term piece to build around.

Mullins - D - Similar to Mountcastle, I think the league has figured out Mullins and that the player from 2021 will never return, and I'm not sure that 2022 will be his floor either.  

Santander - E - I think he's solid, and expect similar production to last year  for the next few years.

Rutschman - U - the longer he's in MLB the better he will become

Stowers - U - I feel the FO is underestimating him, and I'm not sure why.  He need more chances this year, and hopefully we don't sign an Aguilar or other waste of roster space that will take his at bats

Vavra - U - Give him his shot, I feel he'll be a bit better

Pitching I'm just not sure about.   In almost every situation I can see all 3 as being possible.  Some may have played over their heads last year, but with another year with our analytics and changing focus from one pitch to another I can see some improvement also.