MLB Pipeline's Top 100 2023 Draft Prospects

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, SpOkane said:

 

Keep in mind that the Pipeline list will change, possibly dramatically, by April as Holliday was in the 60s on their first 2022 prospect draft list.

That’s why I never bother looking at these lists before any portion of the season preceding the draft has been played.   And the later we’re picking, the more volatile the list becomes.  

[RZNJ]

Baseball America did a “staff” not a “mock” draft.   Geoff Pontes picked Colorado HS SS Walker Martin.   I don’t see that happening.  Kid turned 19 in February.  Arjun Nimmala is almost 2 full years younger.   That would be a huge difference if you were comparing two HS SS.

In their draft, Matt Shaw is still on the board.  He checks a lot of previous Oriole draft boxes.  College middle IF who performed well with wood bats on the Cape.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America did a “staff” not a “mock” draft.   Geoff Pontes picked Colorado HS SS Walker Martin.   I don’t see that happening.  Kid turned 19 in February.  Arjun Nimmala is almost 2 full years younger.   That would be a huge difference if you were comparing two HS SS.

In their draft, Matt Shaw is still on the board.  He checks a lot of previous Oriole draft boxes.  College middle IF who performed well with wood bats on the Cape.

Shaw gives me the Norby vibe.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Shaw gives me the Norby vibe.

I’d agree with that.   A lot of similarities.

[RZNJ]

 My feeling this year is that there is a good chance the Orioles either go with a college pitcher (Cade Kuehler?) or a HS position player with upside.    It looks like Arjun Nimmala has got helium.   I think there is a good chance this kid doesn't make it to 17.   A lot of mocks/rankings now gave him inside of pick #17.    There's always the chance they go safe and grab a Matt Shaw or a Travis Honeyman at #17 but I think they might look for someone with a little more upside at #17 or someone who fits a need (college pitcher) as long as the value is there.   The college position player pool doesn't look particularly strong.  Maybe Maue Ahuna is there at #17.   He's projected to stay at SS.   Matt Shaw sounds like he's a 2B at best and maybe a LF.    

[RZNJ]

Fangraphs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-mlb-draft/summary?type=0&sort=-1,1

[SpOkane]

11 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Fangraphs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-mlb-draft/summary?type=0&sort=-1,1

I tend to enjoy reading Longenhagen's reports more than the other prospect writers and he is pretty engaging on podcasts, but his rankings seem to be the most off on draft day. I think it is because he mostly relies on what he likes and not what the industry types tell him.

[CharmCityHokie]

7 hours ago, SpOkane said:

I tend to enjoy reading Longenhagen's reports more than the other prospect writers and he is pretty engaging on podcasts, but his rankings seem to be the most off on draft day. I think it is because he mostly relies on what he likes and not what the industry types tell him.

I don't necessarily disagree with you about that, but if they're his rankings, shouldn't they be based on what he knows and believes about the players? He's not making predications, he's ranking players based on his own formula, something I appreciate as opposed to seeing BA/BP/MLB all basically have cookie-cutter rankings pre-draft.

[SpOkane]

2 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you about that, but if they're his rankings, shouldn't they be based on what he knows and believes about the players? He's not making predications, he's ranking players based on his own formula, something I appreciate as opposed to seeing BA/BP/MLB all basically have cookie-cutter rankings pre-draft.

 

2 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you about that, but if they're his rankings, shouldn't they be based on what he knows and believes about the players? He's not making predications, he's ranking players based on his own formula, something I appreciate as opposed to seeing BA/BP/MLB all basically have cookie-cutter rankings pre-draft.

Sure, I agree with you. He explains that when he talks about it. I respect that and he owns what he puts out there. Would be interesting to have access to the rankings of all 30 teams and see which teams his rankings are most similar.

[RZNJ]

Paul Skenes.  I’ll be shocked if the RHP from LSU isn’t the #1 overall this year.  He’s as good as Strasburg and Cole and I actually think the whole package might be the best I’ve ever seen.  This kid looks like he was put together at a factory and has perfect mechanics too.  The stuff?   Amazing.   Imagine Felix Bautista maintaining his stuff for 6-7 innings.  I usually don’t go overboard on these College and HS prospects but this guy is something else.   He came along a year too late.  

 

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Paul Skenes.  I’ll be shocked if the RHP from LSU isn’t the #1 overall this year.  He’s as good as Strasburg and Cole and I actually think the whole package might be the best I’ve ever seen.  This kid looks like he was put together at a factory and has perfect mechanics too.  The stuff?   Amazing.   Imagine Felix Bautista maintaining his stuff for 6-7 innings.  I usually don’t go overboard on these College and HS prospects but this guy is something else.   He came along a year too late.  

 

Fighting words for Jackson Holliday

I'm sure Ben will find a way to work him into Orioles broadcasts leading up to the draft.    This could be Ben's year to really weigh in/reflect on pitcher abuse if an LSU Tiger is the McDonald/Strasburg character.

[CharmCityHokie]

On 3/12/2023 at 1:17 PM, RZNJ said:

Paul Skenes.  I’ll be shocked if the RHP from LSU isn’t the #1 overall this year.  He’s as good as Strasburg and Cole and I actually think the whole package might be the best I’ve ever seen.  This kid looks like he was put together at a factory and has perfect mechanics too.  The stuff?   Amazing.   Imagine Felix Bautista maintaining his stuff for 6-7 innings.  I usually don’t go overboard on these College and HS prospects but this guy is something else.   He came along a year too late.  

 

Skenes has definitely been killing it (18k/9 is absurd with a 0.5 WHIP), I find it interesting he transferred from the Air Force Academy to LSU before his junior year; he might have seen what the Navy decided with Noah Song and realized that paying the AF back for those two years of school would be more financially beneficial to him than asking for an exemption from service.  

[RZNJ]

Baseball America did there 1s Mock Draft 1.0

Carlos Callazo alternateed picks with a scout with Collazo picking 1st and every other pick.    He has the Orioles taking HS SS Colin Houck a RH hitter and thrower and a SS.

Obviously, his chances or anyone's chances of guessing correctly are about 1% right now.    Has has Crews. Langford, Skenes, and Dollander as the first 4 picks and there's a fair chance it stays that way but maybe in a different order.   Those 4 seem to be a level above the rest.

I do think the Orioles could go HS at #17.   Houck is a possibility.   Nimmala  the 17 yo SS from FLA is another.   There is a 6'5 LHP named Thomas White from MA who I think is a high ceiling pitcher who might go there if they decide to go high ceiling HS player there.

If the Orioles decide to take the safer route with a college position player I could say Tennesse SS, Maui Ahuna there.   He's pretty much a lock to stay at SS and has hit well but not a huge offensive ceiling.   They do like those SEC guys though.    Tough conference.

Another guy who might be there at #17 and some would consider a boring pick would be LH catcher Kyle Teel an athletic catcher who is not a slam dunk to stay at catcher but has the tools including a strong arm and has some offensive upside but probably isn't a power guy.

I could be wrong but I don't see the Orioles going for a college pitcher at #17.   The top tier is gone and the 2nd tier doesn't sound exciting enough for #17.     The two best HS pitchers or probably LH White and RH Liam Petersen.    White looks to me like he has the cleaner mechanics.   I'd be ok with him at that spot.   I like Petersen too but prefer White at that spot.

Law loves Nimmala and has him going in the top 10 while most others have him outside the top 20.   This kid doesn't turn 18 until October, or something like that.   The ball explodes off his bat.   Huge power potential for a SS.   The question is if he will actually hit advanced pitching.   There is risk there but there's a chance he stays at SS.

Edited March 18, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

I’d say the odds are 90% they’ll pick someone I’ve never heard of.  

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say the odds are 90% they’ll pick someone I’ve never heard of.  

You do a lot of research.   No interest in the draft before it happens?