MLB Pipeline's Top 100 2023 Draft Prospects

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

My guess is that when the O’s no. 17 pick comes up, there will be somebody there who was on the top 10 on their board, and they will take that player.   I’d be thrilled if it was a pitcher.   I won’t be surprised to see them take a HS hitter, since there won’t be many openings in the O’s lineup in the next 3-4 years, so they can afford to take someone who takes a bit longer to develop.  I doubt they’d go with a HS pitcher.  

Yea I think they get someone rated high on their board too. When you have a lot of HS kids, the rankings tend to be all over the place. Couple that with signing bonus demands dropping guys down and you are in a good position to grab someone you like.

[Explosivo]

I kinda want Nimmala so we can have Cano and Dhalsim on the team for a SF6 vs MK11 type battle for supremacy. Plus he's got such a lean body but still has tremendous power, plays SS very well, and seems like a really good kid with an impeccable work ethic. 

[pdiddy]

Curious about the feeling of a HS player here. It seems like the real WS window is the next 3-4 years. Would a polished college arm like Waldrep be likely to help in that window?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Curious about the feeling of a HS player here. It seems like the real WS window is the next 3-4 years. Would a polished college arm like Waldrep be likely to help in that window?

BPA.

That's all I want.

[Mooreisbetter27]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

BPA.

That's all I want.

100% how I feel too. 

[geschinger]

3 hours ago, pdiddy said:

Curious about the feeling of a HS player here. It seems like the real WS window is the next 3-4 years. Would a polished college arm like Waldrep be likely to help in that window?

If we ever have to talk about WS windows, the front office has failed to implement the blueprint successfully.    That shouldn't be part of their vocabulary.  

It should always be what their risk/reward analysis shows as the BPA when they pick.

[Jammer7]

11 hours ago, pdiddy said:

Curious about the feeling of a HS player here. It seems like the real WS window is the next 3-4 years. Would a polished college arm like Waldrep be likely to help in that window?

That is certainly one valid way to go. My thought is really BPA, but what is the definition of that really? Is it a guy who has a modest chance to be a top 10 national prospect in 2-4 years, or a guy who has a good shot of at least being a bullpen contributor quickly with a ceiling of a #3-4 starter? They may not need a contributor as much as a trade piece for a later deal. 

I think they have to consider what they actually do well in development. What pitcher has Elias drafted and become a contributor in Baltimore? I am not saying they cannot develop pitching, not at all. They just have not done it yet. They have had some solid results with Kremer, Bradish, Bautista, Grayson and even DL. None of them Elias draftees, of course. They have not really taken a premium pitching talent yet either. Maybe they find one that Sig’s data models like. Apparently, he liked Nick Bitsko, and he has been as injury prone as as Carter Baumler. 

I think Elias will look to bring in the most talented position player they can, with some upside and great aptitude for what they teach. It could be a Dylan Beavers type college kid with upside, or maybe a high end high school kid who might be a little over slot. They will want to keep reloading the “talent pipeline.”

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

That is certainly one valid way to go. My thought is really BPA, but what is the definition of that really? Is it a guy who has a modest chance to be a top 10 national prospect in 2-4 years, or a guy who has a good shot of at least being a bullpen contributor quickly with a ceiling of a #3-4 starter? They may not need a contributor as much as a trade piece for a later deal. 

I think they have to consider what they actually do well in development. What pitcher has Elias drafted and become a contributor in Baltimore? I am not saying they cannot develop pitching, not at all. They just have not done it yet. They have had some solid results with Kremer, Bradish, Bautista, Grayson and even DL. None of them Elias draftees, of course. They have not really taken a premium pitching talent yet either. Maybe they find one that Sig’s data models like. Apparently, he liked Nick Bitsko, and he has been as injury prone as as Carter Baumler. 

I think Elias will look to bring in the most talented position player they can, with some upside and great aptitude for what they teach. It could be a Dylan Beavers type college kid with upside, or maybe a high end high school kid who might be a little over slot. They will want to keep reloading the “talent pipeline.”

The definition of BPA should be the highest rated player on your board, regardless of salary demands, etc…

[Jammer7]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The definition of BPA should be the highest rated player on your board, regardless of salary demands, etc…

Agreed, but different people on this board have different valuations. Quicker arrival of a safer pick vs. a longer term and higher risk with significantly better potential reward. Is it simply the best talent, or are we adding in the risk of the player group (Such as HS pitcher)? It should be the most likely production/value based on the scouting input and data algorithm, and none of us here have that kind of info.

Elias’ staff really does a great job scouting. They look hard at aptitude and other intangibles as deciding factors, to go along with the talent evaluations. Many of the ”tooled-up” scouting darlings out of HS never amount to much in pro ball. Aptitude and maturity are big factors as to why. With the PD system of Matt Blood and staff, I would like to see what they can do with a higher end HS talent like those we have mentioned. Particularly, I am curious what they want in a HS pitcher. I am curious what that looks like and how they would develop them. They were supposedly in on Bitsko, but a big late velocity bump scares me. And he’s been a poster boy for the risk of that group.

I know where you have stood on this in the past. You wanted Jordan Lawler instead of Kjerstad. I was of the same opinion, until I really looked at his 2020 video more. We were both quite high on Drew Jones, but were good with Holliday when all was said and done. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Agreed, but different people on this board have different valuations. Quicker arrival of a safer pick vs. a longer term and higher risk with significantly better potential reward. Is it simply the best talent, or are we adding in the risk of the player group (Such as HS pitcher)? It should be the most likely production/value based on the scouting input and data algorithm, and none of us here have that kind of info.

Elias’ staff really does a great job scouting. They look hard at aptitude and other intangibles as deciding factors, to go along with the talent evaluations. Many of the ”tooled-up” scouting darlings out of HS never amount to much in pro ball. Aptitude and maturity are big factors as to why. With the PD system of Matt Blood and staff, I would like to see what they can do with a higher end HS talent like those we have mentioned. Particularly, I am curious what they want in a HS pitcher. I am curious what that looks like and how they would develop them. They were supposedly in on Bitsko, but a big late velocity bump scares me. And he’s been a poster boy for the risk of that group.

I know where you have stood on this in the past. You wanted Jordan Lawler instead of Kjerstad. I was of the same opinion, until I really looked at his 2020 video more. We were both quite high on Drew Jones, but were good with Holliday when all was said and done. 

It was Lawlar over Cowser. I liked Veen over Kjerstad.

I have no issue with either pick, just had a preference.

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It was Lawlar over Cowser. I liked Veen over Kjerstad.

I have no issue with either pick, just had a preference.

Yep, I had that wrong. It was Veen over Kjerstad, and you were not alone. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Jammer7

[cnmilton]

Does the fact that the MLB team has moved past the rebuild stage, to more of a contending stage influence the Os drafting strategy this year?  Since the Os have so many prospects at the high levels of their farm system blocked, could Elias now pivot to more high upside HS talent as a way to spread the talent level more evenly throughout the Os farm system? Also, does the fact that ME has rebuilt the farm system now allow him to take more high risk/high reward players?

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, cnmilton said:

Does the fact that the MLB team has moved past the rebuild stage, to more of a contending stage influence the Os drafting strategy this year?  Since the Os have so many prospects at the high levels of their farm system blocked, could Elias now pivot to more high upside HS talent as a way to spread the talent level more evenly throughout the Os farm system? Also, does the fact that ME has rebuilt the farm system now allow him to take more high risk/high reward players?

Anything is possible during this transitional time, but as I wrote earlier, I think they could gamble as you said. They spread things out in past drafts, and it was wise because they added quality talented depth. They can gamble a little here, and I think they did that last year as well when you think about McLean and the Walters, Young and another that escapes me right now. Gambling with the first pick is a little different, though.  

[btdart20]

9 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Is it a guy who has a modest chance to be a top 10 national prospect in 2-4 years, or a guy who has a good shot of at least being a bullpen contributor quickly with a ceiling of a #3-4 starter?

The 2020 shortened draft has led to depth in the 2023 draft.

I suspect they go highest ceiling matching their development strengths. So, I suspect a position player.  Probably college.  A few college SPs after the first wouldn’t surprise me though.

I doubt a HS SP.  An overslot HS SP or two like they’ve done with Baumler and Showalter wouldn’t surprise me either.

2021 had a bunch of arms in the back half of the draft.  2022 had more arms creeping higher in our picks.  I wonder if that upward trend continues?

[RZNJ]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It was Lawlar over Cowser. I liked Veen over Kjerstad.

I have no issue with either pick, just had a preference.

No issue?  Hmmm.   This is your first post after the pick was made.

“Wtf!!!!  You had so many great options and this is what you do?

Cowser isn’t even a terrible player but no way he’s BPA.  I can believe Kjerstad was BPA or very close to it.  I do not buy for a second that Cowser was.”