Eovaldi signed with Rangers per Moose

[Number5]

14 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jordan Lyles' 2022:

179 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 4.40 FIP

Kyle Gibson's 162 game average for his 10 year career:

194 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 4.29 FIP

Looks pretty darn lateral to me.

LOL.  Yet again, you are taking Lyles' clear outlyer season in 2022 being almost as good as Gibson's 10-year average as somehow proving anything.  That is simply a gross manipulation of statistics.  Incredible.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

LOL.  Yet again, you are taking Lyles' clear outlyer season in 2022 being almost as good as Gibson's 10-year average as somehow proving anything.  That is simply a gross manipulation of statistics.  Incredible.

 

Because that is the specific production from 2022 that Gibson is replacing in 2023.

It's really not that difficult of a concept to grasp.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

LOL.  Yet again, you are taking Lyles' clear outlyer season in 2022 being almost as good as Gibson's 10-year average as somehow proving anything.  That is simply a gross manipulation of statistics.  Incredible.

It depends on the point he’s trying to make.  If his point is that Gibson is unlikely to do significantly better in 2023 than Lyles did in 2022, I’d say that comparison makes sense.   If his point is that Gibson is unlikely to do better than Lyles in 2023, then I don’t think that statistical comparison is apt.

Whatever the case, if Gibson for Lyles is the only offseason change in our rotation for 2023, it’s not adequate.  

[Number5]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

Because that is the specific production from 2022 that Gibson is replacing in 2023.

It's really not that difficult of a concept to grasp.

Certainly not difficult to grasp, simply an illogical comparison.  It is clear that you're going to continue with this line and refuse to either see or admit that to compare one players best season to another player's career average is an improper use of statistics.  We will therefore never come to a meeting of the minds.

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It depends on the point he’s trying to make.  If his point is that Gibson is unlikely to do significantly better in 2023 than Lyles did in 2022, I’d say that comparison makes sense.   If his point is that Gibson is unlikely to do better than Lyles in 2023, then I don’t think that statistical comparison is apt.

Whatever the case, if Gibson for Lyles is the only offseason change in our rotation for 2023, it’s not adequate.  

Totally agree.  However, a reasonable comparison of the two players careers make it much more likely that Gibson will meet or exceed Lyles' 2022 performance that for Lyles to do so.  Expected one player to meet his career averages is far more likely than expecting another player to meet or exceed his career best.  Not a close call.  Of course, anything can happen, but I'm leaning more towards Elias' take on this than DWF's.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

Certainly not difficult to grasp, simply an illogical comparison.  It is clear that you're going to continue with this line and refuse to either see or admit that to compare one players best season to another player's career average is an improper use of statistics.  We will therefore never come to a meeting of the minds.

Lol, okay.

Comparing the production we got from a roster spot in one year to the production we are likely to get from that exact same roster spot the next year when evaluating whether a year-over-year improvement has been made is "illogical."

Seems legit 

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It depends on the point he’s trying to make.  If his point is that Gibson is unlikely to do significantly better in 2023 than Lyles did in 2022, I’d say that comparison makes sense.   If his point is that Gibson is unlikely to do better than Lyles in 2023, then I don’t think that statistical comparison is apt.

Whatever the case, if Gibson for Lyles is the only offseason change in our rotation for 2023, it’s not adequate.  

Reasonable as ever, Frobby. Thank you.

This has been my point since the day Gibson was signed.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Totally agree.  However, a reasonable comparison of the two players careers make it much more likely that Gibson will meet or exceed Lyles' 2022 performance that for Lyles to do so.  Expected one player to meet his career averages is far more likely than expecting another player to meet or exceed his career best.  Not a close call.  Of course, anything can happen, but I'm leaning more towards Elias' take on this than DWF's.

I am going to judge Elias & co. a bit on how they do with this one.  Elias made some remarks that the O’s see some things with Gibson they think they can improve.  If they do it and he’s a significant upgrade from Lyles’ 2022 season, good for them, and they’ll gain some trust.   If they don’t, and Gibson just has a Lyles-ish season, it will reinforce my feeling that they haven’t done enough.  Of course, either way, I still think they need to find a way to further upgrade the rotation.  

[Number5]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I am going to judge Elias & co. a bit on how they do with this one.  Elias made some remarks that the O’s see some things with Gibson they think they can improve.  If they do it and he’s a significant upgrade from Lyles’ 2022 season, good for them, and they’ll gain some trust.   If they don’t, and Gibson just has a Lyles-ish season, it will reinforce my feeling that they haven’t done enough.  Of course, either way, I still think they need to find a way to further upgrade the rotation.  

Maybe I'm counting on Grayson too much, but I've got Grayson and Gibson as being a pretty clear upgrade over Lyles and Zimmermann.  As I said, anything can happen once they start playing the games, but I like the chances of seeing improvement over 2022's rotation.  Agreed, it would have been huge to get one more guy.  As I've posted several times, Rodon was the guy I really wanted.  I suspect that Elias may well have been in on Rodon in a bigger way than we know, but there's no way to prove my suspicions one way or the other.  I still think a trade involving one of our middle infielders for a SP may yet be in the works.  Who knows?  It would help me understand what the need for Frazier was, anyway.