Adding quality players

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

BTW, The shift is gone. I actually thinks guys like Lyles and Gibson will be worse next year. 

The two are not alike.  Lyles is a fly ball pitcher, Gibson a ground ball pitcher.   It seems likely Gibson would be more negatively affected than Lyles.  But we’ll see.   

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Well he was worse than Lyles with the fact that you can pitch to the shift. He’s bound to regress without that advantage. He’s not a big strikeout guys and he had a 1.3 WHIP with the benefit of the shift.

I’m not interested in how you think Gibson will be worse than Lyles, or just worse in 2023 than 2022, or that sort of thing.

You bucketed Lyles and Gibson together saying “guys like” them would be hurt without the shift.  I’m interested in their type that will make the lack of a shift worse than some other type in 2023?  The only metric you mentioned that could have any impact is a low K%.  Is that the type or is there more?

 

[owknows]

57 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If you are saying that Elias and Sig must be seeing something that most don't I agree.  But he was an All-Star in 2021 and went to the playoffs in 2022.   So Elias must feel he has something to offer.   

Right now he is holding noone back but maybe Vavra.   And Vavra does not project as a starter. There is room on the team for Gunnar, Mateo, Urias, Frazier and Westburg.   I don't think any of those players are going to play 160 games but Gunnar.   I think we will see the other players share playing time. Westburg may also see time at 1B, DH and I would not be surprised if he plays some corner outfield.

Ortiz may be ready sometime in 2023 if he hits and then the O's will need to trade.  Maybe they trade Frazier and get a decent prospect in return.

I'm not suggesting that Frazier doesn't have the potential to be a decent player.

But the Orioles have Vavra, Henderson, Mateo, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Mayo all of whom have potentially great talent. And all of them are vying for infield spots. And all will hit in the next two years.

We're already facing a situation where we HAVE to trade some of that talent.

Why on earth would we want to pay 8 million for a mediocre guy who is going to keep you from seeing what the leading edge of that talent has to offer?

You know you're playing Henderson. That leaves Vavra, Mateo, Urias, and Westburg vying for two spots... and now you've added Frazier to that mix. Making it all but certain that you'll be sitting a better player for a mediocre one.

I generally like Elias, but he did the same thing last year with Odor(continuing to play him)/Aguilar/Phillips.

Odor, Aguilar, Phillips, and now Frazier.... All bad moves... all impede the development of emerging talent, with NO BENEFIT to the team that could not have been better provided by one of the draftees that we've suffered through years of drought waiting for..

 

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, owknows said:

McCann, Gibson, Givens?  No Problem. They're not impeding anyone's progress.

Frazier was a bad move. Inserting a mediocre player into a middle infield at which we already have a logjam of existing and emerging talent is counter-productive. Even if we trade a middle infielder or two, we would STILL have a logjam.

I went through this in the Frazier thread.  Suffice to say, I disagree with your sky is falling down stance because somehow Jordan Westburg is “blocked”. 
He isn’t and won’t be.  I suspect Mike probably realizes how many middle infielders he has and might actually have a plan about that.  Having rookies pushed to do well to earn a spot is not “blocked”. 


 

[tntoriole]

35 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm not suggesting that Frazier doesn't have the potential to be a decent player.

But the Orioles have Vavra, Henderson, Mateo, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Mayo all of whom have potentially great talent. And all of them are vying for infield spots. And all will hit in the next two years.

We're already facing a situation where we HAVE to trade some of that talent.

Why on earth would we want to pay 8 million for a mediocre guy who is going to keep you from seeing what the leading edge of that talent has to offer?

You know you're playing Henderson. That leaves Vavra, Mateo, Urias, and Westburg vying for two spots... and now you've added Frazier to that mix. Making it all but certain that you'll be sitting a better player for a mediocre one.

I generally like Elias, but he did the same thing last year with Odor(continuing to play him)/Aguilar/Phillips.

Odor, Aguilar, Phillips, and now Frazier.... All bad moves... all impede the development of emerging talent, with NO BENEFIT to the team that could not have been better provided by one of the draftees that we've suffered through years of drought waiting for..

 

I guess that is why the team underperformed so badly last year.  All those bad moves Elias made. 

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm not suggesting that Frazier doesn't have the potential to be a decent player.

But the Orioles have Vavra, Henderson, Mateo, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Mayo all of whom have potentially great talent. And all of them are vying for infield spots. And all will hit in the next two years.

We're already facing a situation where we HAVE to trade some of that talent.

Why on earth would we want to pay 8 million for a mediocre guy who is going to keep you from seeing what the leading edge of that talent has to offer?

You know you're playing Henderson. That leaves Vavra, Mateo, Urias, and Westburg vying for two spots... and now you've added Frazier to that mix. Making it all but certain that you'll be sitting a better player for a mediocre one.

I generally like Elias, but he did the same thing last year with Odor(continuing to play him)/Aguilar/Phillips.

Odor, Aguilar, Phillips, and now Frazier.... All bad moves... all impede the development of emerging talent, with NO BENEFIT to the team that could not have been better provided by one of the draftees that we've suffered through years of drought waiting for..

 

I don't think you can equate last off season to this off season.  The O's were not projected to be a contender last off season when Odor was signed.  This year they are expected to contend so Elias and Sig must see something in Frazier that makes them think they can turn him around.  The Frazier acquisition is that simple.  They would not spend 8m if they thought he was going to repeat last year's poor performance. But on a one year contract he is a trade chip if they turn him around.

I don't think Vavra is looked at as a starting infielder.  He is probably not a starting anything except maybe DH because of his arm and lack of power. 

The infield is probably Gunnar 3B/SS,   Mateo at SS but not full time if he does not hit, Urias 2B/3B but he had a 720 OPS last year so he is going to have to hit better to be a full time player.  

Westburg offers power and the ability to drive in runs which means he could DH some.   He has the build and probably has the defensive skill level to backup 1B.   He also has the speed to play the corner outfield.  So I would not limit him to just the infield.

Hyde loves to move players around so this group has versatility that I think he will  utilized.

Your reference to Phillips and Aguilar is not really relevant.   They traded Mancini at the deadline and needed to fill the roster spot cheaply.  That is why they were on the team.    There have been good discussion about whether Stowers or those two should have gotten the playing time  but there was a roster spot to fill and those two were available on the waiver wire.

Bottom line there is room on the team for Gunnar, Mateo, Frazier, Urias, and Westburg.   Only Gunnar plays full time.

Edited December 24, 2022 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

If you are saying that Elias and Sig must be seeing something that most don't I agree.  But he was an All-Star in 2021 and went to the playoffs in 2022.   So Elias must feel he has something to offer.   

Right now he is holding noone back but maybe Vavra.   And Vavra does not project as a starter. There is room on the team for Gunnar, Mateo, Urias, Frazier and Westburg.   I don't think any of those players are going to play 160 games but Gunnar.   I think we will see the other players share playing time. Westburg may also see time at 1B, DH and I would not be surprised if he plays some corner outfield.

Ortiz may be ready sometime in 2023 if he hits and then the O's will need to trade.  Maybe they trade Frazier and get a decent prospect in return.

They have treated both Stowers and Vavra like third rate fringe prospects. I say this as a big fan of Elias and the overall job they have done but the Frazier move impacts both of them, maybe even more so than Aguilar/Odor.

I like all of the individual moves so far and I can get on board with Frazier if some trades are made. The problem is many of us are hoping for at least one above average multi-year type talent (or big trade) rather than a series of incremental placeholder types. Within that constraint all the moves are fine, just not exciting. It's more about what they haven't done. Of course, moves may be coming.

[Jim'sKid26]

The impact of banning the shift seems like a huge boogyman to some posters. The absence of data to estimate its impact has led to some fascinating speculation. I am intrigued by the certainty many folks have of how it will effect hitters and pitchers. I, personally have equipoise, but feel I might just be ignorant. Perhaps a few of you can educate me on the data supporting your opinion. 

Side note, please attempt to minimize the supposition, speculation and spitballing if possible. Thanks.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
spelling

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I’m not interested in how you think Gibson will be worse than Lyles, or just worse in 2023 than 2022, or that sort of thing.

You bucketed Lyles and Gibson together saying “guys like” them would be hurt without the shift.  I’m interested in their type that will make the lack of a shift worse than some other type in 2023?  The only metric you mentioned that could have any impact is a low K%.  Is that the type or is there more?

 

High noncontact guys will be less effected.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The impact of banning the shift seems like a huge boogyman to some posters. The absence of data to estimate its impact has led to some fascinating speculation. I am intrigued by the certainty many folks have of how it will effect hitters and pitchers. I, personally have equipoise, but feel I might just be ignorant. Perhaps a few of you can educate be on the data supporting your opinion. 

Side note, please attempt to minimize the supposition, speculation and spitballing if possible. Thanks.

The amount of data publicly available is minimal.  I saw there was a study of how it worked in the minors and the impact was very small (less than 5 points of BA if I recall).   But (and here I am spitballing a little) I would think that shifting isn’t nearly as common in the minors as it is in the majors, so the impact could be bigger.   

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The amount of data publicly available is minimal.  I saw there was a study of how it worked in the minors and the impact was very small (less than 5 points of BA if I recall).   But (and here I am spitballing a little) I would think that shifting isn’t nearly as common in the minors as it is in the majors, so the impact could be bigger.   

Thank you, as always an intelligent and measured post from you.

I am aware of that data. But it is a rather small sample size in a league where the overall talent on both sides of the ball is, by definition, inferior. Extrapolate at your own risk. Many folks I read and trust have expressed opinions that the impact might be close to negligible. Others point to left-handed hitters who hit the ball on the ground frequently as benefitting the most but also point out that those players are not as plentiful as they once were in baseball since the shift has become more common. Bottom line is, even really smart folks who study this stuff way more than I do, have no idea what will happen. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Thank you, as always an intelligent and measured post from you.

I am aware of that data. But it is a rather small sample size in a league where the overall talent on both sides of the ball is, by definition, inferior. Extrapolate at your own risk. Many folks I read and trust have expressed opinions that the impact might be close to negligible. Others point to left-handed hitters who hit the ball on the ground frequently as benefitting the most but also point out that those players are not as plentiful as they once were in baseball since the shift has become more common. Bottom line is, even really smart folks who study this stuff way more than I do, have no idea what will happen. 

I suspect that the same people who design the shifts based on the batted ball data available to them have a pretty good idea what the impact will be.  I don’t think the publicly available data tells you a lot.   

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

They have treated both Stowers and Vavra like third rate fringe prospects. I say this as a big fan of Elias and the overall job they have done but the Frazier move impacts both of them, maybe even more so than Aguilar/Odor.

I like all of the individual moves so far and I can get on board with Frazier if some trades are made. The problem is many of us are hoping for at least one above average multi-year type talent (or big trade) rather than a series of incremental placeholder types. Within that constraint all the moves are fine, just not exciting. It's more about what they haven't done. Of course, moves may be coming.

Stowers will be on the team.   He will play some RF, some LF on the road and some DH.   How healthy will Hays and Santander be?   If Stowers hits I see him getting a lot of playing time.

I am treating Varva as a bench player that may be in the minors if everyone is healthy because that is who he is.   He does not have much power.  He does not play 2B or LF better than they other players the O's have.   He is basically there in case of injury.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Thank you, as always an intelligent and measured post from you.

Please don't do that.  His head gets big and then we have that to deal with.

[Jim'sKid26]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Please don't do that.  His head gets big and then we have that to deal with.

I'm sorry. I'm aware that civility is frequently frowned upon by some here. It's just how I'm wired.