Building a case that the current O’s could be a 90+ win team

[Yossarian]

More than anything else, I think getting to 90 wins will come down to the bats of Mullins, Hays, and Mountcastle. If they improve  appreciably in both OPS and power (read - homeruns) over last year,  90 wins is within reach.  

[Explosivo]

On 1/1/2023 at 4:23 PM, Frobby said:

I’m starting to build the case that the O’s could win 90+ games this year.   It requires a little positive thinking, but nothing too far-fetched, I hope.   Here are the building blocks for the case:

1.  The Adley Effect.   The team was 12 games over .500 (67-55) once Adley arrived.   Just extend that .549 winning percentage to 162 games and it gets you to 89 wins.  If instead you look at the team’s Pythagorean record after Adley arrived, it gets you to 85 wins.

2.  The Gunnar Effect.   It’s not just that Gunnar is a good player, but look where his at bats are likely coming from.  They’re mostly going to be coming from the at bats given last year to Nevin and Odor.   

3.  The Balanced Schedule.   The O’s ended up going 34-42 (.447) against the AL East, 49-37 (.570) against everyone else.  24 fewer games against the AL East should equate to about 3 more wins at those percentages.   

4.  The Marginal Offseason Upgrades.  This one is a bit subjective in that it depends whether you think that Gibson, Frazier and McCann are likely to bounce back from their relatively poor 2022 performances, and by how much.  But personally, I believe that Frazier will outperform 2022 Odor, and McCann will outperform 2022 Chirinos/Bemboom, and that Gibson will hold his own against 2022 Lyles and possibly outperform him.   I think those 3 plus Givens will improve the team by 2-4 wins.  

5. The Experience Factor.  A lot of guys got their first big league experience in 2022.   As a group, those players are likely to be better in 2023 now that they’ve gotten their feet wet.   

6.  Better Roster Construction.  Overall, I think this roster will be better constructed due to the positional flexibility of Gunnar and Frazier.   Lots of ways Hyde can make the pieces fit on a given day.   

7.  The Grayson Effect.  Saved this for the end because it’s risky to count too much on a rookie pitcher.    But he’s an upgrade - potentially, a huge one, but we’ll see about that in year one.  

So, that’s my case that this can be a 90+ win team.   Running counter to this: the likelihood of regression from several of the pitchers, and the likelihood of more injuries than in 2022 on offense.   Those things, if extreme enough, could put the team under .500.   But, as a fan who likes to go into a season with reasons to feel optimistic, I think there are plenty of those reasons going into 2023.

I’d still like to see some further moves to strengthen the team.  



 

Frobby is a wise man.